Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, officially marked on January 20, 2025, signals the beginning of a new chapter in global politics, with direct repercussions on Brazil’s economy and international relations. On his first day in office, Trump signed a series of executive orders, including declaring a state of emergency at the US-Mexico border and withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement. These measures underline a return to the protectionist and imperialist rhetoric that characterized his first term, raising concerns across multiple sectors.
For Brazil, the implications of these decisions span trade, migration, and environmental issues. The agribusiness sector, a cornerstone of Brazil’s economy, faces a mix of opportunities and challenges under the new American policies. Similarly, Brazilian students and professionals seeking opportunities in the US may encounter more stringent conditions, while diplomatic relations between the two nations will likely require strategic adjustments.
Additionally, the expected strengthening of the US dollar due to Trump’s economic policies is poised to impact Brazil directly, influencing import costs, inflation rates, and broader economic conditions. With a firm stance on prioritizing domestic interests, the Trump administration sets the stage for a period of challenges and opportunities for Brazil.
Agribusiness: opportunities and risks for Brazil
Brazil’s agricultural sector plays a pivotal role in the country’s economy, accounting for about 27% of its GDP in 2024. Under Trump’s return, this sector faces both opportunities and risks. Higher tariffs on imports imposed by the US could negatively affect Brazilian exports to the American market, particularly in sectors like steel and aluminum.
Conversely, the rekindling of trade tensions between the US and China under Trump’s protectionist policies could benefit Brazil. During Trump’s first term, Brazil’s soybean exports to China reached record levels, with an increase of 22% in 2018 when the country exported 83 million tons. This trend could repeat itself, enabling Brazil to solidify its position as a key supplier of commodities to China.
However, growing dependence on a single market, such as China, poses risks to Brazil’s economic stability. Experts emphasize the need for Brazil to diversify its trading partners to mitigate the impacts of global demand fluctuations.
The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its effects
Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement has reignited debates about global responsibility in combating climate change. Brazil, which has also faced criticism for its environmental policies, may find less resistance to adopting less stringent practices.
However, the absence of the US from the agreement could weaken global efforts to combat climate change. Developing countries like Brazil are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts and frequent flooding. In 2024, agricultural losses in Brazil due to climate-related events exceeded R$25 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
Furthermore, the US withdrawal may hinder bilateral sustainability agreements and limit Brazil’s access to international funding for environmental preservation projects.
Stricter migration policies impact Brazilians in the US
During his first term, Trump implemented stricter migration policies, including bans on citizens from various countries and restrictions on visa issuance. This history raises concerns among Brazilians, who form one of the largest immigrant communities in the US. Approximately 1.7 million Brazilians are estimated to reside in the US, many without legal documentation.
Stricter rules may complicate obtaining work, study, and tourist visas, while increasing the risk of deportations. Between 2017 and 2020, deportations of Brazilians rose by 234%, according to data from the US Immigration Department. This scenario is a source of concern not only for migrants but also for their families in Brazil, who often rely on financial remittances.
Education and challenges for Brazilian students
The education sector is also under the influence of Trump’s policies. Although there have been no official changes to student visa policies yet, the history of the Republican government raises concerns. In 2019, the issuance of student visas fell by 5%, affecting international students, including Brazilians.
Higher consular fees and income verification requirements could make access to US universities more restrictive for Brazilians. On the other hand, American educational institutions, which depend on tuition from international students, may lobby for more favorable policies, creating a dynamic of conflicting interests.
Technology and innovation as Trump’s priorities
Investments in technology and innovation are central to Trump’s administration, aiming to strengthen US competitiveness in strategic sectors. Fields such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and telecommunications are at the forefront, with plans for investments potentially reaching billions of dollars.
For Brazil, this represents both challenges and opportunities. Brazilian technology companies could benefit from partnerships and exchanges, but they might also face increased competition in the global market. Additionally, the technological advancements in the US may influence similar policies in Brazil, encouraging investments in research and development.
Diplomatic relations and Brazil’s positioning
The relationship between Brazil and the United States, which grew closer during Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, may face adjustments in Trump’s second term. US foreign policy, characterized by unilateralism, requires Brazil to adopt a balanced diplomatic approach to manage the interests of both the US and China.
In 2024, Brazilian exports to the US totaled $30.3 billion, while exports to China reached $89.7 billion. This economic dependence on China contrasts with the political alliance maintained with the US, creating a scenario of strategic dilemmas for Brazil.
A stronger dollar and its implications for Brazil’s economy
The strengthening of the US dollar, an expected outcome of Trump’s economic policies, directly impacts Brazil’s economy. A stronger dollar raises import costs and inflation rates, putting pressure on public finances and reducing consumer purchasing power. In 2024, the average dollar exchange rate stood at R$5.30, but projections suggest it could surpass R$6.00 in 2025.
For export-oriented companies, such as those in the agricultural sector, a strong dollar may bring benefits by increasing the competitiveness of Brazilian products in the international market. However, industries reliant on imported inputs, such as the automotive sector, face higher costs and narrower profit margins.
Structural changes and the need for adaptation
Trump’s return to the White House presents a complex scenario for Brazil, requiring adaptive strategies across various sectors. From strengthening trade relations with alternative markets to implementing domestic policies to counteract the effects of a strong dollar, Brazil must prepare for the challenges posed by the new international context.
