The 2025 Formula 1 season has barely begun, yet the Red Bull camp is already buzzing with speculation about Max Verstappen’s future. The four-time world champion, who clinched his fourth consecutive title in 2024, is navigating a rocky start to the year with the RB21, a car struggling to keep pace with the leading McLaren and Mercedes teams. Sitting second in the drivers’ standings, just eight points behind Lando Norris, Verstappen remains the standout performer for Red Bull, but the sudden replacement of teammate Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda after only two races has reignited talk of the Dutchman potentially leaving Milton Keynes.
Since mid-2024, Red Bull’s performance has wavered, forcing Verstappen to push an increasingly uncompetitive car to its limits just to stay in the points. The situation worsened with the departure of Adrian Newey, the team’s legendary designer, now at Aston Martin as technical director and shareholder. Newey’s exit, combined with the RB21’s technical woes and the team’s controversial decision to swap Lawson out so early, has put Verstappen’s long-term commitment under intense scrutiny within the paddock.
Robert Doornbos, a former Formula 1 driver turned pundit, didn’t mince words, claiming Verstappen is “secretly bidding farewell” to Red Bull. Speaking recently, he pointed to the champion’s unusually relaxed demeanor amid the team’s struggles as evidence that his mind might already be elsewhere. Despite a contract running through 2028, exit clauses in the agreement fuel speculation that Verstappen could seek a new challenge, especially with the 2026 regulations and Red Bull’s shift to in-house engines looming on the horizon.
Two-time champ! ????????
— Oracle Red Bull Racing | オラクル・レッドブルレーシング (@redbullracing) March 29, 2025
Max made it happen in style at Suzuka ????????
⏮️ 2022#F1 || #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/J84mQUzDZg
Early races expose RB21’s weaknesses
The 2025 season kicked off with a tough reality check for Red Bull. In the opening races at Melbourne and Shanghai, McLaren swept both victories, while Mercedes solidified their position as the second-strongest team in the Constructors’ Championship. Red Bull, meanwhile, slipped to third, trailing McLaren by 42 points, even with Verstappen holding his own, like his fourth-place finish in China. However, Liam Lawson’s failure to score points and consecutive Q1 eliminations laid bare the RB21’s shortcomings, a car Verstappen himself has called “tricky to drive.”
Following these lackluster results, Red Bull made a bold move: Lawson was replaced by Yuki Tsunoda ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix, set for April 4-6. The switch, announced on March 27, caught many off guard, given its timing so early in the season. Helmut Marko, the team’s advisor, explained that Tsunoda’s experience was needed to help develop the car, while also admitting that Lawson’s brief stint was a misstep, with the team underestimating the challenges the New Zealander faced.
Verstappen’s reaction to swap sparks debate
The decision to bring in Tsunoda didn’t sit well with Max Verstappen. Marko confirmed that the Dutchman was unhappy with the change, marking his third teammate in less than a year after Sergio Pérez’s exit post-2024 and now Lawson’s short-lived tenure. Verstappen’s frustration surfaced publicly when he liked an Instagram post accusing Red Bull of “bullying” Lawson, a move that amplified rumors of growing tension between the driver and the team’s leadership.
- Lawson’s record: Zero points in two races, knocked out in Q1 both times.
- Tsunoda’s experience: 89 races with Racing Bulls before the call-up.
- Verstappen’s signal: Liking a critical post hints at internal discord.
Newey’s departure deepens Red Bull uncertainty
Adrian Newey’s move to Aston Martin stands as a pivotal moment for Red Bull. After nearly two decades shaping the team’s success, including Verstappen’s titles and the squad’s dominant stretches, the British engineer’s exit in early 2025 left a technical void. Helmut Marko acknowledged that Newey’s absence is already felt, particularly as the RB21 demands urgent fixes to regain its edge. The first car designed without his direct input, the 2025 model has struggled to deliver the consistency Verstappen needs.
With nearly a thousand employees, Red Bull is banking on its collective expertise to fill the gap, but the immediate fallout is clear. The shift to self-developed Red Bull Powertrains in 2026, ending the long-standing Honda partnership, adds another layer of uncertainty. As the team prepares for this major transition, questions linger about their ability to remain a top contender in the coming years.
Tsunoda steps in to steady the ship
Yuki Tsunoda, 24, joins Red Bull tasked with bringing stability alongside Verstappen. After four seasons with Racing Bulls, where he scored 30 of the team’s 46 points in 2024, the Japanese driver earned the trust of Red Bull’s brass. Team principal Christian Horner emphasized that the swap was a “purely sporting” decision, aimed at leveraging Tsunoda’s experience to refine the RB21. His debut with the main team comes at home in Suzuka, heightened by Red Bull’s special white livery honoring Honda.
Meanwhile, Liam Lawson returns to Racing Bulls, pairing with rookie Isack Hadjar. His two-race stint with Red Bull marks him as the shortest-serving full-time driver in F1 history. Marko insisted the move isn’t a demotion but a chance for Lawson to regroup in a more familiar setting, though the abrupt exit underscores the team’s ruthless approach to performance.
Technical hurdles pile pressure on Milton Keynes
Red Bull’s dip in form this year stems from a mix of technical and strategic missteps. Post-China, where Verstappen salvaged fourth and Lawson languished at the back, the team held an emergency meeting in Milton Keynes. The focus was pinpointing the RB21’s flaws and scheduling upgrades, set to debut in Japan. Marko cautioned, however, that these tweaks won’t yield instant results, framing Red Bull’s recovery as a work in progress.
McLaren’s dominance, leading the Constructors’ Championship by 21 points over Mercedes, highlights Red Bull’s struggles. Verstappen’s slim eight-point gap to Norris keeps him in the drivers’ title hunt, but the lack of a reliable second driver hampers the team’s broader ambitions. The disparity with rivals is stark, and Red Bull’s early season woes signal a long road ahead.
Upcoming 2025 race schedule
The Formula 1 calendar rolls on with key races that could shape Red Bull’s season. Here’s what’s next:
- Japanese GP: April 4-6, Suzuka.
- Bahrain GP: April 18-20, Sakhir.
- Saudi Arabian GP: April 25-27, Jeddah.
These events will test Tsunoda’s impact and the RB21’s upgrades under pressure.
Verstappen at the heart of speculation
Robert Doornbos’s comments have thrust Verstappen’s future into the spotlight. The ex-driver, who raced in F1 from 2005 to 2006, argued that Verstappen’s laid-back attitude amid Red Bull’s turmoil suggests he’s mentally checked out. Though the champion has publicly committed to his contract through 2028, the exit clauses offer flexibility if results falter, keeping the rumor mill churning.
Verstappen’s unease with the Lawson-Tsunoda switch further fuels the fire. Marko admitted the Dutchman opposed the move, a stance echoed by 1997 champion Jacques Villeneuve, who labeled the swap “arrogant” and argued Lawson deserved more time. The public friction hints at deeper cracks in Verstappen’s relationship with Red Bull’s decision-makers.
Paddock watches Verstappen’s next move
In the Formula 1 paddock, Verstappen’s potential departure is a hot topic. Aston Martin, bolstered by Newey and set to partner with Honda in 2026, emerges as a tempting option, given Verstappen’s successful history with Honda power units since 2019. Mercedes and McLaren also lurk, aware that landing the Dutchman could reshape the grid. His every move is dissected, with that Instagram like seen as a rare public jab from a driver typically guarded off-track.
The pressure on Horner and Marko intensifies as the season unfolds. Delivering a competitive car is paramount to keeping Verstappen, whose patience may wear thin if Red Bull can’t reclaim its former dominance. The paddock waits, knowing his decision could trigger a seismic shift in the sport.
Tsunoda faces trial by fire with Verstappen
For Yuki Tsunoda, joining Red Bull fulfills a long-held ambition. Since debuting in 2021, the Japanese driver has weathered ups and downs, but his 2024 form secured this shot. Horner praised Tsunoda’s offseason work, noting gains in strength and maturity—traits he’ll need racing alongside Verstappen, one of F1’s modern greats.
Suzuka marks a high-stakes debut before his home crowd, with Red Bull’s Honda tribute adding emotional weight. Marko stressed that Tsunoda has until year-end to prove he’s the right fit, but Red Bull’s history of swift driver changes—like Lawson’s exit—looms as a warning.
Factors shaping Red Bull’s path
The RB21’s performance in upcoming races will define Red Bull’s 2025 fate. Planned upgrades for Japan offer hope, but Marko tempers expectations, suggesting a gradual climb. Verstappen needs a car to chase a fifth straight title, while Tsunoda must deliver points to close the constructors’ gap. Without both, Red Bull risks falling further behind.
The 2026 switch to Red Bull Powertrains adds another twist. Ending the Honda era, the team’s in-house engine project in Milton Keynes carries risks, especially post-Newey. Its success will heavily influence Verstappen’s long-term faith in the squad.
Standout stats from Verstappen’s season
Verstappen’s 2025 run has already produced notable moments:
- Four straight titles: Matching Sebastian Vettel’s Red Bull streak from 2021-2024.
- Third teammate in a year: Following Pérez and Lawson.
- Eight-point gap: Trailing Norris despite RB21 struggles after two races.
These figures showcase his skill, but also the mounting challenges he faces.
