A historic setback marked Germany’s chancellor election on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, with Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), failing in the first vote. For the first time since World War II, a candidate did not secure the required majority in the initial round. Merz, backed by a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), garnered only 310 votes, six short of the threshold.
The second vote, held the same day, secured Merz the chancellorship, but exposed weaknesses in the newly formed coalition. The outcome surprised analysts and voters, who expected a smooth victory. The Bundestag, with 630 seats, witnessed intense party negotiations after the initial failure.
The election took place amid political tensions, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining strength and immigration debates dominating the agenda. The CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, signed the previous day, promised economic reforms and stricter migration policies.
- First-round votes: 310 in favor, 307 against, 9 abstentions, 1 invalid.
- Second-round votes: Absolute majority achieved, no details released.
- Coalition: CDU/CSU and SPD, with 328 Bundestag seats.
- Election date: May 6, 2025.
First round exposes divisions
Friedrich Merz’s failure in the Bundestag’s first vote caught Germany’s political class off guard. At 69, the conservative leader expected a straightforward confirmation, supported by a coalition agreement signed Monday with the SPD. The alliance, holding 328 seats, should have secured the 316-vote absolute majority, but at least 18 coalition parliamentarians did not back Merz.
The secret ballot revealed internal tensions, particularly among conservatives unhappy with easing the debt ceiling, a departure from Angela Merkel’s fiscal austerity. The session was paused by Bundestag President Julia Klöckner for party consultations.
Merz, visibly surprised, met with CDU/CSU leaders to assess the situation. The SPD reiterated that its MPs honored the agreement, pointing to potential dissent among conservatives as the cause of the setback.
Second round secures victory
The second voting round, held Tuesday, confirmed Merz as Germany’s 10th modern chancellor. Although exact vote counts were not disclosed, the absolute majority was achieved, allowing Merz to assume the role. The victory, however, came at a political cost, as the episode exposed cracks in the coalition before the government’s start.
The swift second round reflected the urgency to stabilize Germany’s leadership amid economic and geopolitical challenges. The CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, formalized after weeks of talks, now faces the test of governing a Germany in recession and under international pressure.
- New government priorities: Economic reforms, migration control, defense investments.
- SPD ministries: Vice-chancellorship, Finance, Justice, Defense.
- CDU/CSU ministries: Foreign Affairs, Economy, Interior, Transport.
- Constitutional deadline: Up to 14 days for further votes, if needed.
Die Wahl zum Bundeskanzler der Bundesrepublik Deutschland nehme ich mit Dankbarkeit und Respekt vor der Aufgabe an. Ich gehe mit Mut und Zuversicht an die Arbeit. Denn wir sind ein starkes Land – und unser Land kann mehr! pic.twitter.com/wNYul3vk2q
— Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (@bundeskanzler) May 6, 2025
Coalition faces early challenges
The 144-page coalition agreement was approved by SPD members on Monday and by CDU and CSU committees earlier. It outlines plans to tighten immigration laws, boost defense spending, and modernize infrastructure, with a projected 500 billion euro budget over the next decade.
Easing the debt ceiling, a Merz concession to enable these investments, drew criticism from conservative hardliners. The move breaks with the austerity policy that defined Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure, a still-influential figure in the CDU.
Internal tensions were heightened by a turbulent election cycle, marked by knife attacks in Solingen and Aschaffenburg and a mass vehicular attack needed in Magdeburg. These incidents fueled immigration debates, with Merz advocating stricter measures, including a parliamentary motion backed by the AfD, sparking protests.
Far-right rise adds pressure
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the second-largest force in February’s elections, with 20.8% of the vote, the far-right’s best result since World War II. Classified as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s intelligence agency, the AfD capitalized on discontent over immigration and the economic downturn.
Merz, who broke the so-called “firewall” during the campaign by accepting AfD votes for an anti-immigration motion, faces criticism for his stance. He reiterated no cooperation with the AfD, but the decision angered CDU moderates and triggered protests in several cities.
The AfD’s doubled Bundestag presence complicates governance. Leading polls in some regions, especially the east, the party increases pressure on the coalition to deliver quick results.
- Election results: CDU/CSU 28.5%, AfD 20.8%, SPD 16.4%.
- AfD seats: Approximately 130 in the Bundestag.
- Merz’s stance: Rejects any AfD alliance.
- Proposed actions: Increased monitoring of AfD activities.
International reactions unfold
Merz’s election, despite its turbulence, was closely watched by global leaders. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, faces challenges like the Ukraine war, tensions with the Trump administration in the U.S., and the need to bolster EU leadership.
Planned trips by Merz to France and Poland, scheduled for Wednesday, May 7, were maintained, signaling intent to strengthen ties with European allies. The visits coincide with the 80th anniversary of World War II’s end, a historic milestone for Europe.
Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk congratulated Merz, emphasizing the need for a stable Germany in European cooperation. In the U.S., Vice President J.D. Vance and billionaire Elon Musk criticized the AfD’s extremist label, reigniting diplomatic tensions.
Economy takes center stage
Germany faces its third consecutive recession, with negative growth projected for 2025. Merz, with a private-sector background including roles at BlackRock, promises a liberal plan with corporate tax cuts and deregulation to boost business.
The coalition agreement includes massive infrastructure and defense investments, with 2% of GDP allocated to the armed forces, exceeding NATO targets. Modernizing bridges, railways, and highways, many from the 1970s, is another priority, with estimated costs of 50 billion euros annually until 2035.
Easing the debt ceiling, needed to fund these plans, remains contentious. Conservative MPs fear it could jeopardize long-term fiscal stability, while the SPD defends the need for spending to reverse the economic crisis.
- Economic forecast: Negative growth of 0.2% in 2025.
- Planned investments: 500 billion euros over 10 years.
- Priority sectors: Defense, infrastructure, technology.
- Fiscal proposals: Lower corporate taxes, reduced bureaucracy.
Immigration dominates political debates
Tightening migration policies is a core pillar of Merz’s government. The coalition agreement proposes stricter border controls, deportation of undocumented migrants, and a review of refugee benefits. These measures contrast with Angela Merkel’s 2015 “open doors” policy, which Merz criticized during the campaign.
Recent incidents, like the Solingen and Magdeburg attacks, fueled anti-immigration rhetoric, boosting the AfD. Merz supported a parliamentary motion to strengthen border controls, but accepting AfD votes drew criticism from allies and sparked protests in Berlin and Munich.
The SPD, while backing tougher migration rules, insists on maintaining integration programs for legal immigrants. The coalition faces the challenge of balancing security and human rights amid political polarization.
Merz’s role in German politics
Friedrich Merz, 69, is a well-known CDU figure but has never held executive government roles. Elected to the European Parliament in 1989 and the Bundestag in 1994, Merz was sidelined by Angela Merkel in the 2000s. For a decade, he worked in the private sector, amassing wealth as a lawyer and BlackRock advisor.
His return to politics in 2021, after Merkel’s retirement, marked a conservative shift in the CDU. Merz took party leadership in 2022 and won February 2025 elections with 28.5% of the vote, surpassing the AfD and SPD. His campaign focused on economic prosperity and migration control, resonating with voters frustrated with Olaf Scholz’s government.
Merz’s election, though successful in the second round, raises questions about his ability to unify the coalition. Dissident MPs, particularly from the CDU, signal resistance to policies like fiscal easing.
- Merz’s career: MP (1989-2009), CDU leader (2022-).
- Education: Law, with roles at firms like BlackRock.
- Stance: Conservative, pro-market, critical of irregular migration.
- Immediate challenges: Unifying coalition, implementing economic reforms.
Negotiations and governance
Forming the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition was complex, starting after February’s elections. With CDU/CSU at 28.5% and SPD at 16.4%, both parties lost support compared to prior elections. The AfD’s rise and voter fragmentation forced an alliance between historic rivals.
The April coalition agreement was approved by 20% of SPD members in a digital vote. The CDU ratified it at a party conference on April 28. Negotiations involved mutual concessions, with the SPD securing key ministries and the CDU retaining the chancellorship.
Governance remains uncertain. The first-round defeat revealed divisions that could hinder reform passage in the Bundestag. The coalition must negotiate with dissenting MPs and counter the AfD’s influence, which threatens to obstruct priority agendas.
Expectations for the new government
Merz’s government takes office at a critical juncture for Germany. Beyond the economic recession, the country faces external pressures, like the Ukraine war and the need to strengthen NATO. Merz pledged to increase arms supplies to Kyiv, including long-range missiles, and bolster ties with France and Poland.
Domestically, the coalition plans to cut bureaucracy, attract foreign investment, and promote technological innovation. Projects like public sector digitalization and renewable energy expansion are on the horizon, though they depend on state funding.
The government’s stability hinges on Merz’s ability to keep the coalition united. With the AfD gaining ground and the economy in crisis, the new chancellor faces a challenging term with little room for error.
- Short-term goals: Stabilize economy, implement migration controls.
- International commitments: Strengthen NATO, support Ukraine, enhance EU ties.
- Domestic projects: Digitalization, renewable energy, infrastructure modernization.
- Political risks: Coalition dissent, AfD growth.
