On June 1, 2025, the Atlantic hurricane season officially kicked off, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting an above-average season, expecting 13 to 19 named storms from June through November. Announced on May 22, the outlook predicts 6 to 10 of these storms could become hurricanes with winds exceeding 74 mph, and 3 to 5 may reach major hurricane status, with winds above 111 mph. Driven by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, which fuel storm activity, the forecast carries 70% confidence. NOAA urges early preparation for coastal and inland communities, highlighting risks of flooding and high winds. The 2024 season, with 18 named storms and five U.S. landfalling hurricanes, underscores the potential intensity of 2025, prompting heightened vigilance across vulnerable regions.
NOAA’s forecast cites the absence of El Niño and a possible La Niña as key factors boosting storm formation. Other forecasters, like Colorado State University, align with predictions of heightened activity, projecting 17 named storms.
Preparation is critical, as even inland areas face significant risks from flooding and tornadoes.
- Season duration: June 1 to November 30, 2025.
- Forecast: 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes.
- Primary driver: Above-average ocean temperatures.
Climatic influences
Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, particularly in the main development region between Africa and the Caribbean, are warmer than average, though about 1°C cooler than in 2024. This thermal energy is a key driver of tropical storm formation.
The absence of El Niño, which typically suppresses hurricane activity, and a 38% chance of La Niña developing by the season’s peak reduce wind shear, fostering storm growth. An active West African monsoon, spawning tropical waves, further supports cyclone formation.
- Ocean temperatures: Up to 2°C above average in key areas.
- La Niña odds: 38% during peak season.
- African monsoon: Expected to be more active.
Other forecasts
Beyond NOAA, several institutions issued 2025 outlooks. Colorado State University, on April 3, predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 155. AccuWeather, on March 26, forecasted 13 to 18 named storms and 7 to 10 hurricanes.
The UK Met Office, on May 21, projected 16 storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE of 154. Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), on May 23, estimated 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. All forecasts indicate activity above the 1991-2020 average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Flooding threats
Flooding remains the deadliest hurricane-related hazard, surpassing wind in fatalities. Tropical storms and hurricanes can trigger severe inland flooding, impacting areas far from the coast.
In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused catastrophic flooding in North Carolina, killing over 200 people, while Hurricane Milton spawned 46 tornadoes in Florida. NOAA warns that climate change intensifies rainfall, extending storm impacts inland.
Preparation measures
Officials emphasize early preparation for both coastal and inland communities. Residents should update evacuation plans and assemble emergency kits with food, water, and medications.
NOAA recommends reinforcing homes against winds and identifying flood-prone areas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now provides 72-hour storm forecasts, and residents are urged to monitor updates closely.
- Emergency kits: Food, water, flashlights, medications.
- Evacuation plans: Safe routes and shelter locations.
- Home protection: Reinforced windows, elevated furniture.
- Monitoring: NHC alerts and local forecasts.
Forecasting advancements
For 2025, the NHC introduced upgrades, including an experimental cone graphic showing tropical storm and hurricane wind warnings for inland U.S. areas. A new rip current risk map will be available during active tropical systems.
The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was enhanced, improving track and intensity predictions by 5%. Tests from 2020-2022 showed 10% better intensity forecasts, enabling more accurate warnings.
Storm names
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) set the 2025 storm names, recycled every six years: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter (replacing Dorian from 2019), Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy.
Storms are named when winds reach 39 mph, retaining the name through their lifecycle. Devastating storm names, like Helene and Milton from 2024, may be retired in 2026.
2024 season recap
The 2024 season was hyperactive, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Five hurricanes hit the U.S., including Beryl, a Category 5 in July, and Helene, causing $48 billion in damages. Milton, with $34.3 billion in losses, highlighted rapid intensification fueled by warm waters.
The NHC issued a record 347 accurate forecasts in 2024. However, NOAA’s 2025 budget cuts and the loss of over 500 staff raise concerns about future forecasting capacity.
Rapid intensification risks
Rapid intensification, seen in hurricanes like Ian (2022) and Milton (2024), is a growing threat. Warm, deep ocean waters, measured by Ocean Heat Content (OHC), drive storms to gain 35 mph in winds within 24 hours.
In 2025, high OHC in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean increases the risk of intense storms near landfall. Low wind shear, expected during the season’s peak, further supports rapid strengthening.
- Rapid intensification: 35 mph wind increase in 24 hours.
- OHC levels: Elevated in Gulf and Caribbean.
- Wind shear: Reduced, aiding storm growth.
Regional preparations
Coastal states like Florida, Louisiana, and North Carolina are bolstering defenses after 2024. Florida allocated $200 million for coastal infrastructure upgrades. Louisiana expanded storm barriers in New Orleans, and North Carolina is improving flood mapping.
Inland areas, like Asheville, North Carolina, are refining evacuation plans post-Helene. FEMA, despite staffing shortages, maintains supply reserves in high-risk states.
