The Football Association (FA) is set to absolve Lucas Paquetá, midfielder for West Ham and the Brazilian national team, of allegations related to sports betting manipulation in the Premier League, with an official announcement expected between August 4 and 8, 2025. Launched in August 2023, the investigation focused on four matches from 2022 to 2023 where Paquetá received yellow cards, raising suspicions of influencing betting markets. A source close to the case indicates a lack of direct evidence led to the decision, with the FA covering $16 million in legal fees. The ruling ensures Paquetá’s continued participation in the Premier League and international matches, easing concerns for West Ham, which feared losing the 27-year-old star. The case has sparked discussions about the integrity of betting regulations in football.
Paquetá fully cooperated, providing access to his phone and documents. The nearly two-year probe, with hearings from March to July 2025, took an emotional toll on the player. West Ham, which paid €60 million for him in 2022, faced uncertainty over his future.
The news has sparked relief among fans, generating 50,000 social media mentions. Clubs like Flamengo are monitoring the outcome, while Paquetá aims to focus on the 2025/26 season.
- Matches investigated: Leicester, Aston Villa, Leeds, Bournemouth (2022-2023).
- Legal costs: FA to cover $16 million in fees.
- Charges: Four breaches of Rule E5.1, two of Rule F3.
- Social media: 50,000 mentions supporting Paquetá.
Scope of the FA’s investigation
The FA launched its probe after detecting suspicious betting patterns in four West Ham matches: Leicester City (11/12/2022), Aston Villa (03/12/2023), Leeds United (05/21/2023), and Bournemouth (08/12/2023). Paquetá received yellow cards in each, prompting concerns of deliberate actions to benefit bettors. Approximately 60 bets, ranging from £7 to £400, yielded £100,000 in profits, many placed in Ilha de Paquetá, Rio de Janeiro.
A formal charge in May 2024 accused Paquetá of four violations of Rule E5.1, which prohibits influencing match outcomes for betting purposes, and two of Rule F3 for alleged non-cooperation. His defense argued the fouls were incidental, with no evidence of manipulation. Paquetá provided full access to his phone and answered all inquiries.
A parallel Brazilian investigation by the CPI on Game and Betting Manipulation examined transactions linked to relatives, like his uncle, but found no evidence against Paquetá. The FA’s decision underscores the need for concrete proof in such cases.
- Bets: 60, with £100,000 in profits.
- Origin: Ilha de Paquetá, Rio de Janeiro.
- Defense: Fouls deemed incidental, no manipulation proven.
- CPI: No direct evidence against Paquetá.
Relief for West Ham
West Ham, which invested €60 million in Paquetá in 2022, welcomes the likely exoneration. A severe penalty, such as a ban, would have forced the club to seek a replacement, disrupting plans for the 2025/26 season. Finishing ninth in the 2024/25 Premier League, West Ham sees Paquetá as vital for European competition aspirations.
In the 2024/25 season, Paquetá played 33 matches, scoring five goals but recording no assists, reflecting the case’s emotional strain. A notable moment came in May 2025, when he cried after a yellow card against Tottenham, comforted by referee Michael Oliver and captain Jarrod Bowen. Manager Graham Potter kept him in the lineup but considered resting him due to mental fatigue.
The ruling stabilizes Paquetá’s market value, which dropped from €65 million to €55 million during the probe. West Ham now plans to build around him.
- Investment: €60 million in 2022.
- Performance: Five goals in 33 matches in 2024/25.
- Emotional toll: Visible distress in games.
- Strategy: Paquetá key for 2025/26 season.
Paquetá’s career trajectory
Emerging from Flamengo in 2016, Paquetá gained fame for his versatility and playmaking. After stints at AC Milan and Lyon, he joined West Ham in 2022, helping secure the 2023 Europa Conference League title. With 59 caps for Brazil, he played in the 2022 World Cup and 2024 Copa América.
The allegations halted a potential €82 million transfer to Manchester City in 2023. Post-absolution, clubs like Flamengo and Saudi teams have shown interest, though Paquetá prefers a return to Brazil. His wife, Duda Fournier, publicly criticized the case’s toll on their family.
The ruling allows Paquetá to refocus on his career, both at club and international levels, with Brazil eyeing the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.
- Career path: Flamengo, AC Milan, Lyon, West Ham.
- Title: 2023 Europa Conference League.
- Brazil: 59 caps, 11 goals.
- Transfer: Manchester City’s €82 million bid in 2023.
Fan and market reactions
The expected absolution sparked 50,000 social media mentions, with #PaquetáInnocent trending in Brazil. West Ham fans celebrated his continuity, while Flamengo supporters hope for a homecoming. The Rio club held talks in 2024, paused due to the probe’s uncertainty.
Paquetá’s market value, now at €55 million, may rebound. Interest from Manchester City and Saudi clubs persists, but he leans toward staying in Europe or returning to Brazil. The FA’s delay in resolving the case drew criticism from fans and Paquetá’s team.
The outcome may prompt the FA to refine its betting rules, as analysts question their enforceability without direct evidence.
- Social media: 50,000 mentions, #PaquetáInnocent trending.
- Interest: Flamengo, Manchester City, Saudi clubs.
- Market value: €55 million in July 2025.
- Criticism: FA’s two-year probe deemed slow.
Legal and financial implications
The FA will cover $16 million in legal fees, reflecting the case’s complexity. Rule E5.1 carries penalties from six months to a lifetime ban, but the lack of direct evidence cleared Paquetá. Bets traced to Ilha de Paquetá showed no link to the player.
Brazil’s CPI investigation found no proof against Paquetá, despite examining family transactions. The case highlights challenges in proving manipulation and the need to shield players from unproven claims.
The Premier League’s ties to betting firms like Betway complicate efforts to curb manipulation, with online betting’s rise adding risks. The ruling may push for stricter FA guidelines.
- Legal costs: $16 million in fees.
- Rule E5.1: Six-month to lifetime bans possible.
- CPI: No evidence tying Paquetá to bets.
- Betting: Online growth raises manipulation risks.
