Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing’s Japanese driver, faces a pivotal moment in his Formula 1 career, with his 2026 future still undecided, as revealed by consultant Helmut Marko. After replacing Liam Lawson at the Japanese GP in April 2025, Tsunoda scored only 10 points in 14 races, ranking 18th in the drivers’ championship. The mid-season break, a traditional evaluation period for Red Bull, will be crucial in determining if the Japanese driver stays alongside Max Verstappen. Pressure mounts due to the team’s historical struggle to find a second driver to match the four-time champion. Supported by Honda, Tsunoda faces technical challenges with the RB21 car and aims to improve consistency.
Tsunoda’s performance has been under scrutiny, especially after a seven-race pointless streak, contrasting with Verstappen’s 187 points, which keep Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship fight. Despite this, the Japanese driver remains confident in his progress, highlighting lessons learned from his teammate. Red Bull, known for swift driver decisions, remains cautious, with Marko stating the 2026 lineup will be decided post-summer break.
Laurent Mekies’ arrival as team principal brought a new dynamic, focusing on technical details that seem to benefit Tsunoda, particularly in qualifying. However, uncertainty persists, worsened by the end of the Red Bull-Honda partnership in 2025, as Honda will supply engines to Aston Martin in 2026.
- Key challenges for Tsunoda in 2025:
- Adapting to the RB21, designed for Verstappen’s style.
- Pressure to close the performance gap with his teammate.
- Need for consistency to avoid replacement.
Pressure in the Red Bull cockpit
Tsunoda’s journey at Red Bull Racing began with high expectations, but results have fallen short. After replacing Liam Lawson, who underperformed in the first two 2025 races, the Japanese driver scored in only three GPs: Bahrain (9th, 2 points), Saudi Arabia (8th, 4 points), and Monaco (7th, 4 points). His performance dipped, notably with a crash in Imola, where he lost control pushing the car’s limits. The seven-race pointless streak has put Tsunoda under intense pressure, especially in a team demanding quick results.
Consultant Helmut Marko noted that Red Bull traditionally evaluates drivers during the mid-season break, a period that has led to drastic changes, like Pierre Gasly’s replacement by Alexander Albon in 2019. Tsunoda, aware of the stakes, said he needs more precision but remains optimistic. “I’m learning every race, especially from Max. It’s not easy, but I’m progressing,” he told the official Formula 1 website.
His relationship with Laurent Mekies, former Racing Bulls boss, has been a positive factor. Mekies brought a technical approach that benefits Tsunoda, with improvements in qualifying sessions, like Q3 in Belgium, his best since Miami. However, strategic errors, such as a poorly timed pit stop in Belgium, limited his race result to 13th.
Max + Yuki = YouTube 🪄 Magic 🪄
— Oracle Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) August 16, 2025
🔗 https://t.co/jYHWSKUy3G pic.twitter.com/6QskQ3ybY9
Technical challenges of the RB21
The RB21, designed for Verstappen’s aggressive style, has been a significant hurdle for Tsunoda. He noted the car’s narrow performance window, making it tough for less experienced drivers to adapt. At Hungaroring, he pointed out technical disparities, like an outdated front wing, which hinder his competitiveness.
- RB21 limitations faced by Tsunoda:
- Narrow performance window, requiring precise driving.
- Less advanced components compared to Verstappen’s car.
- Difficulty maximizing performance in long races.
- Rear instability, increasing the risk of errors like Imola.
Despite these challenges, Tsunoda provided valuable feedback during an RB19 test, the 2023 championship-winning car, suggesting improvements for the RB21. This technical input is a point in his favor but insufficient without consistent track results.
Uncertain future with Honda’s exit
The Red Bull-Honda partnership, which backed Tsunoda since his junior categories, ends in 2025. From 2026, Honda will supply engines to Aston Martin, raising questions about the Japanese driver’s future. Aston Martin, with Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll confirmed until 2026, might offer Tsunoda a reserve or test role, but he prefers a race seat.
Koji Watanabe, Honda Racing Corporation president, said the manufacturer aims to keep Tsunoda in F1, but acknowledged limitations due to Aston Martin’s contracts. Other options include talks with smaller teams like the upcoming Cadillac or a return to Racing Bulls, where Tsunoda raced from 2021 to 2024, scoring 91 points in 87 races.
- Possible paths for Tsunoda in 2026:
- Reserve driver at Aston Martin, focusing on technical development.
- Talks with smaller teams, such as Cadillac.
- Return to Racing Bulls, where he showed consistency.
- Pursuit of a race seat with another F1 team.
Comparison with Verstappen and Red Bull’s history
Red Bull has struggled to find a second driver to match Verstappen’s pace. Since Daniel Ricciardo’s departure in 2018, drivers like Pierre Gasly, Alexander Albon, and Sergio Pérez faced similar challenges as Tsunoda. The performance gap, often exceeding three-tenths per lap, is deemed unacceptable by the team. In 2025, the disparity between Verstappen (187 points) and Tsunoda (10 points) reflects not only the Dutchman’s skill but also equipment limitations and competitive pressure.
Tsunoda acknowledges the challenge of being compared to Verstappen, who has been with the team since 2016. “Max has nine years here, and I just arrived. I can’t compare directly without the same car,” he said. Still, he focuses on his growth, aiming for consistency to justify his stay.
Fan support and pressure for results
A RacingNews365 poll showed 55% of fans believe replacing Tsunoda wouldn’t improve Red Bull’s performance, suggesting issues lie more with the car than the driver. However, 42.7% support a change, naming Racing Bulls drivers like Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson as options. Tsunoda’s popularity, driven by his charisma and aggressive style, is an asset, but not enough without tangible results.
- Factors influencing Red Bull’s decision:
- Tsunoda’s performance in upcoming races.
- Technical feedback for RB21 improvements.
- Honda’s pressure to keep the Japanese driver in F1.
- Availability of promising talents like Hadjar and Lindblad.
Competitive landscape and expectations for late 2025
The 2025 season has been tough for Red Bull, finishing fourth in the Constructors’ Championship, behind McLaren. Verstappen’s consistency carries the team, but the second driver’s lack of points hinders their title fight. Tsunoda, aware of the stakes, aims to improve in each race, especially at his home GP in Japan, where he hopes to impress local fans.
The mid-season break in August will be a turning point. Red Bull plans to assess not only Tsunoda but also academy drivers like Arvid Lindblad, praised by Juan Pablo Montoya as a rising star. If Tsunoda fails to break his pointless streak, the team may opt for changes, following its history of swift decisions.
Tsunoda’s legacy in Formula 1
Regardless of the outcome, Tsunoda has made his mark as Japan’s most successful F1 driver, surpassing Takuma Sato with 91 career points. His journey, marked by growth since his 2021 AlphaTauri debut, shows resilience and talent. The 2025 season will be decisive in determining whether he can secure a spot at a top team or seek new paths in the sport.
- Milestones in Tsunoda’s career:
- F1 debut with AlphaTauri in 2021.
- Best result: 4th place at the 2021 Abu Dhabi GP.
- Record points for a Japanese driver: 91 in 87 races.
- Continuous Honda support since junior categories.
With the season ongoing, all eyes are on Tsunoda and his chance to solidify his place at Red Bull. The mix of pressure, talent, and uncertainty makes each race a critical test for the young Japanese driver.
