Researchers at Universidade Estadual of Michigan published an analysis of possible impacts from interstellar comets on Terra. The work, led by Darryl Seligman, focused on comet 3I/Atlas, the third object of its type detected in Sistema Solar. Simulations indicate an average speed of 72 kilometers per second at the moment of contact.
The study considered hyperbolic trajectories and the effect of Earth’s gravity. The results show that interstellar objects arrive much faster than common asteroids from Sistema Solar.
- Simulated average speed: 72 km/s (259,200 km/h)
- Comparison: typical asteroids range from 11 to 73 km/s
- Trajectory: hyperbolic, without closed orbit around Sol
Highest probability zones
The research indicates a greater chance of an impact close to the Equador line. The critical period occurs during winter in the Norte hemisphere.
These conditions arise when Terra’s orbital position favors crossing interstellar trajectories. Geometry increases the relative speed between the object and the planet.
Impact speed and energy
Interstellar comets maintain high speed as they enter Sistema Solar. The lack of prolonged gravitational binding with Sol prevents significant deceleration.
Earth’s gravity accelerates the body in its final moments. Mesmo thus, the energy released far exceeds conventional impacts due to the difference in initial speed.
Computer models simulated thousands of possible trajectories. The distribution concentrated on 72 km/s as the most frequent value. The analysis included data from the three interstellar comets known to date.
Features of craters
High-speed impacts generate greater fragmentation of the material. The craters have a different shape and composition than those produced by common asteroids.
Identification is made difficult by the action of plate tectonics and erosion over geological time.
History of interstellar objects
3I/Atlas was discovered in 2024 and confirmed as the third comet of its kind. His Antes, 1I/’Oumuamua passed through Sistema Solar in 2017 and 2I/Borisov in 2019.
No interstellar impacts have occurred in the last few million years. The research estimates around ten such events in the 4.6 billion year history of Terra. There is no immediate risk with 3I/Atlas.
Details of published research
The work included international collaboration. Dušan Marčeta, from Universidade of Belgrado, and Eloy Peña-Asensio, from Politecnico of Milano, participated.
The simulations accurately reproduced the characteristics observed in real objects. The study reinforces the rarity of interstellar collisions in the short and medium term.
