Bitcoin plummeted more than 30% this November, recording the worst monthly performance since the collapse of the cryptocurrency market in 2022. The phenomenon occurs amid forced liquidations of leveraged positions and record withdrawals from investment funds in bitcoin ETFs, which exceeded US$500 million in a single day. Analistas internationals attribute the drop to a combination of macroeconomic factors and speculative corrections, with the cryptocurrency’s price falling below US$60,000 after reaching peaks above US$90,000 in early October.
The reaction of vehicles such as The Economic Times, Bloomberg and Financial Times highlights the surprise in the market, despite recent political support, such as favorable statements from leaders in the US. Investidores institutions, which drove the initial rally, now face pressure to reallocate assets.
- Main causes identified: exchange settlements and reduced risk appetite.
- Impact on traders: estimated losses of billions of dollars on short positions.
- Historical comparison: similar to the crash of Terra and FTX, but with partial recovery expected.
Reactions from international vehicles
The Economic Times, by Mumbai, describes the movement as driven by panic and mass selling, with bitcoin shrinking 30% in a few weeks. Analistas point out that post-election optimism in the US did not contain the selling pressure.
European publications such as Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of Frankfurt see the scenario as a “real oval”, with experts such as Timo Emden of Emden Research citing concerns about high interest rates.
Factors behind volatility
Liquidations of leveraged positions totaled more than $1 billion last week, forcing automatic sales on platforms such as Binance and Coinbase. Isso worsened capital outflows from ETFs, with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recording redemptions of US$200 million.
Weakening market sentiment, as measured by the fear and greed index, has fallen to “extreme fear” levels, similar to March 2020 during the pandemic. Short-term Traders, which represent 40% of daily volume, reduced exposures.
Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity, which manage billions in crypto assets, adjust portfolios to mitigate risk. Dados from Chainalysis show that 25% of recent transactions involve closing old positions.
Short-term correction prospects
Bloomberg, from Nova York, warns that bitcoin has entered dangerous territory, with put options increasing instability. Novembro may close as the worst month since 2022, but past corrections, such as the 50% one in 2021, were followed by rebounds.
The Financial Times, of Londres, positions the cryptocurrency as a barometer of global speculative appetite, suggesting that drops like this serve as a warning for investors.
Institutional movements and withdrawals
Bitcoin ETF withdrawals in the US reached $640 million at Black Friday, the highest volume in months, according to data from CoinShares. Isso reflects a reallocation towards traditional assets like gold and bonds.
European hedge funds, such as those managed by Valour, report that 15% of their clients have opted for pre-emptive liquidations.
Global trading volume fell 20%, indicating lower liquidity and greater susceptibility to shocks. Analistas predict stabilization if US inflation shows signs of control.
History of bullish and bearish cycles
Bitcoin has already faced drops of 40% in previous cycles, such as in 2018, recovering value by up to 300% in the following 12 months. Dados from CoinMetrics indicate that supply on exchanges has reached two-year lows, which may limit further sales.
Post-halving cycles, such as 2024, historically see corrections of 20-30% before new highs.
Long-term investors hold 70% of the total supply, according to Glassnode, suggesting underlying resilience.
Regulatory risk monitoring
Regulators in the US and Europa are watching the market closely, with the SEC reviewing proposals for new ETFs. Preocupações with money laundering persists, but recent approvals have boosted initial volume.
Countries like Índia and Alemanha are debating stricter taxation on crypto earnings, which could influence future flows.
Strategies from experienced investors
Diversification into stablecoins like USDT grew 10% in the last week, serving as a temporary haven.
- Common adjustments: reducing leverage to 2x or less.
- Focus on altcoins: Ethereum saw a smaller drop of 25%.
- Horizon: many aim for support at US$50,000 for entries.
