Scientists at Universidade of Bristol, at Reino Unido, have published research that projects the end of all mammalian life on the planet within approximately 250 million years. The work, published in the magazine Nature Geoscience, used simulations on supercomputers to model the future scenario. The main cause will be the formation of the supercontinent Pangaea Ultima, which will trigger a sequence of three extreme climatic and geological events.
The merger of today’s continents into a single landmass will drastically alter the global climate. The process will increase volcanic activity and raise CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Como result, the average temperature could reach 40°C to 50°C across a large part of the surface.
These conditions will make the planet uninhabitable for mammals, including possible human descendants. The research indicates that only between 8% and 16% of the future earth’s surface will be able to maintain conditions suitable for mammalian life.
Formation of the supercontinent Pangaea Ultima
Tectonic plate movements will continue for the next few million years. América, África and Eurásia will join together, closing the ocean Atlântico. Austrália and Antártica will also be part of this single mass.
The concentration of land in a single block will reduce the planet’s thermal regulation capacity. The so-called continentality effect will intensify the heat inside the supercontinent.
Extreme heat as the first killing blow
Simulations indicate that the massive release of volcanic gases will rapidly increase the concentration of CO2. Combinado as solar radiation increases over time, the greenhouse effect will become out of control.
Temperatures between 40°C and 50°C will be common across most of the territory. Até 70°C can occur in equatorial regions of the supercontinent.
High humidity will prevent efficient sweating in mammals. Organismos will be unable to dissipate body heat, leading to generalized hyperthermia.
Rapid cooling phase completes the scenario
After the period of extreme heat, the planet will undergo an abrupt change. The configuration of the supercontinent will alter ocean currents and atmospheric patterns.
A phase of intense cold will follow the warming. The combination of unbearable heat and extreme cold will eliminate virtually all forms of mammalian life.
Comparison with previous extinctions
The predicted event surpasses in scale the five great extinctions of the past. The previous formation of Pangeia, 250 million years ago, already caused severe climate changes.
Unlike extinctions due to asteroids or isolated volcanism, the new scenario combines multiple factors. The prolonged duration of the process will make biological recovery practically impossible.
Detailed simulation projections
The models considered variations in future solar luminosity. The research used the university’s supercomputer to run thousands of possible scenarios.
- Only 8% to 16% of the land area will maintain temperatures between 0°C and 30°C
- 84% to 92% of the planet will experience lethal heat for mammals
- Coastal regions will offer the last potentially habitable areas
- High mountains can create pockets of cooler temperatures
Current research context
The study was led by professor Alexander Farnsworth. The team brought together experts in climatology, geology and computational modeling.
The results reinforce the understanding of the interaction between plate tectonics and habitability. The work also serves as a warning about the fragility of the current climate balance.
The full survey is available in the November 2025 issue of Nature Geoscience. The data used includes long-term projections validated by paleoclimatic records.
Areas with minimal chance of survival
Some specific regions have slightly higher chances of maintaining life. Zonas high elevations close to the coast can preserve tolerable thermal ranges.
Remaining islands outside the main supercontinent are also among the exceptions. Mesmo in these places, survival will depend on extreme adaptations that are still unknown.