Shares in the Estados Unidos registered discreet movements this Tuesday, December 9, 2025, as investors await the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, scheduled for Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% in early trading after just its second drop in the past 11 days, reflecting a cautious stance amid expectations of a third rate cut of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 122 points, equivalent to 0.3%, at around 10:15 am Nova York time, driven by energy and healthcare sectors.
The Nasdaq Composite, in turn, fell 0.1%, pressured by technology and automotive retail shares. Esse mixed scenario occurs in a context of relative stability, with the market attentive to signs of persistent inflation above the 2% target of Fed and a job market that shows resilience. Analistas highlight that rate cuts can stimulate the economy and investment, but they also risk worsening inflationary pressures.
- Main indices in focus:
- S&P 500: +0.1%, close to historic records.
- Dow Jones: +0.3%, benefited by blue chips.
- Nasdaq: -0.1%, impacted by volatility in tech.
Trading volume remains low, with Wall Street prioritizing Fed’s pronouncement on future cuts in 2026, amid internal divisions within the central bank committee.
Exxon Mobil Leads Earnings With Robust Profit Forecasts
Exxon Mobil emerged as the main driver of growth in the S&P 500, with shares rising 3.4% after the company raised its earnings growth forecast for the next five years. The company, the largest oil producer in the US, attributes the optimism to low-cost assets in the Permian Basin and on the Guiana coast, which guarantee profitability even with volatile barrel prices below US$35.
The focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction reinforces the confidence of executives, who see the upstream sector, including liquefied natural gas, as key to generating US$25 billion in earnings growth by 2030. The company plans investments of US$27 billion to US$29 billion in 2026, with 37% destined for Permian, where technological innovations promise to extract more oil than competitors.
Investors react positively to this strategy, which balances expansion in profitable fields with emissions control, aiming for carbon intensity targets for 2026.
Mixed performance in health and construction contrasts with energy
CVS The Chief Financial Officer, Brian Newman, emphasized the commitment to announced goals, highlighting strong momentum at the close of 2025, driven by robust sales in pharmaceutical benefit management and improvements in health insurance
On the other hand, the construction sector faced headwinds, with Toll Brothers falling 3.2% due to quarterly results below analysts’ expectations. The CEO Douglas Yearley Jr. pointed to weak demand for new homes in several markets, although luxury homes aimed at affluent customers are less affected by affordability pressures.
Expectations for Fed shape yields and optimism
The bond market reacted to a report that showed 7.7 million U.S. job openings in October, the highest number since May, suggesting a stable labor market that could reduce the urgency for aggressive rate cuts. The yield on the 10-year Tesouro stabilized at 4.17%, while the two-year rose to 3.60%, reflecting bets on a 0.25 percentage point reduction on Wednesday, with a probability of 88% according to pricing tools.
Fed Officials differ on whether high inflation or weakening employment pose the greater risk, which could lead to a more cautious tone in the announcement. Global Mercados shows division, with drops of 1.3% in Hong Kong and 0.5% in Paris, contrasting with stability in the US.
This dynamic reinforces the view that the expected cut will boost assets, but hawkish statements about 2026 could curb excessive expectations of easing.
Sectoral movements highlight investment rotation
Nvidia, a key influence in the market, fell 0.6% despite presidential approval for sales of advanced H200 chips to approved Chinese customers, although it is not its top-of-the-line product. In retail, AutoZone fell 3.7% after lower-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue, with EPS of $31.04 versus estimates of $32.51 and revenue of $4.63 billion versus $4.64 billion expected.
Home Depot reversed an early loss and rose 0.7%, with preliminary guidance for 2026 indicating a possible 1% contraction in the home improvement market, but EPS growth in mid-to-high single digits if the housing sector recovers. Ares Management advanced 6.7% after being included in the S&P 500, replacing Kellanova, acquired by Mars.
These adjustments illustrate a rotation into defensive sectors like energy and healthcare at the expense of interest-sensitive consumer discretionary.
Risk factors in the housing market persist
Mortgage rates, which fell at the beginning of the year but rose in October, worsen affordability for homebuyers, as highlighted by Toll Brothers. CEO Yearley noted that despite the softness in overall demand, the luxury segment is holding up better, with customers less impacted by high costs.
Recent job openings data suggests the job market is not getting worse, potentially limiting additional Fed cuts. Isso could prolong pressures in the real estate sector, where promotions erode margins, as seen in the results of Toll Brothers.
Production projections boost confidence in Exxon
Exxon Mobil details its updated corporate plan, with an emphasis on technology to increase production at Permian Basin to nearly 1.7 million barrels per day, a recent record. Na Guiana, output surpassed 700,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, supporting upstream profits at $5.7 billion.
These low-cost assets generate cumulative free cash flow of $145 billion by 2030, with a 13% annual earnings growth rate. The company is advancing in LNG projects and low-carbon data centers, with an investment decision scheduled for the end of 2026.
The focus on efficiency allows returns to shareholders via dividends and buybacks of US$20 billion in 2025, reinforcing its position as a leader in oil and gas.
CVS Financial Updates Signal Recovery
CVS Para 2026, expects EPS of $7.00 to $7.20 and operating cash flow above $10 billion, with EPS CAGR in the mid-teens through 2028.
The Aetna business shows renewed vigor after challenges in 2024, with stellar ratings improved to Medicare Advantage in 2025. The AI-native engagement platform integrates pharmacy, insurance and home care services, aiming to simplify access for 185 million consumers.
These initiatives, coupled with a strong sales season at Caremark, position the company for expanded margins and sustainable profitability in the healthcare delivery segment.