Yields on Tesouro and Estados Unidos bonds fell this Wednesday, January 21, 2026, after a session of strong selling the day before. The movement reflects investors’ caution in the face of recent threats of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump against European allies. The main focus is on statements related to the acquisition of Groenlândia.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury, a global reference for fixed income assets, operated at 4.281%, a decline of more than 1 basis point in relation to the previous closing. On Tuesday, the same title had surpassed the 4.3% mark during trading, driven by fears of a new wave of protectionism. Outros deadlines also showed adjustments, with investors seeking protection against volatility.
The reduction in yields occurs in a context of reassessment of risks following the declarations of Trump in Davos. The market absorbs the possible consequences of tariffs that could reach 25% on European imports. Essa dynamics keep the Treasuries under selective pressure.
Recent movements in main yields
Long-term bonds showed different behaviors throughout the session. The 30-year yield remained practically stable at 4.918%, close to the psychological level of 5% that has not been reached since September of last year.
The 2-year yield registered a more significant drop, exceeding 2 basis points, trading at 3.572%. Essa difference reflects bets that Federal Reserve will be able to maintain accommodative monetary policy for longer in the face of external uncertainties.
- 10-year yield: 4.281% (decrease of more than 1 bp)
- 30-year yield: 4.918% (minimum change)
- 2-year Yield: 3.572% (decrease of more than 2 bp)
These numbers indicate a partial flattening of the American yield curve. Investidores migrated to shorter duration assets in search of relative safety.
Origin of tariff threats
President Donald Trump announced initial tariffs of 10% against eight European allies starting February 1, gradually increasing to 25% by June. The measure is directly linked to the European refusal to negotiate the sale of Groenlândia to Estados Unidos.
European leaders classified the threats as unacceptable and are already discussing coordinated trade countermeasures. The situation rekindles memories of previous tariff disputes during Trump’s first term.
The proposal to acquire Groenlândia gained new momentum in Davos, where Trump defended the operation as strategic for national security. Países like Dinamarca, responsible for administering the territory, rejected any discussion about sovereignty.
Reaction from international investors
A Danish pension fund, AkademikerPension, announced the departure of around US$100 million in Treasuries Americans. The decision considers both the deterioration of US public finances and current diplomatic friction.
The secretary of Tesouro, Scott Bessent, minimized the impact of the Danish movement, stating that the volume is irrelevant to the American market. Apesar of the official statement, the episode reinforces the perception of country risk associated with the Treasuries.
European institutional investors increased positions in German and French bonds as an alternative. Essa migration contributes to the selling pressure observed in American assets since Tuesday.
Impact on global markets
Volatility reached European and Asian stock markets, with widespread falls in response to the Trump statements. The US dollar also depreciated against the euro and the yen, reflecting a flight to currencies considered safer.
Analysts point out that an effective escalation of tariffs could increase risk premiums on American assets. Isso would result in higher yields in the medium term, affecting financing costs for companies and the government.
The current scenario is reminiscent of episodes from 2018 and 2019, when similar trade disputes sparked global turbulence. Naquela time, Fed needed to adjust the interest rate trajectory to contain recessive effects.
Context of the American yield curve
The Treasuries yield curve remains steep, but with signs of flattening in intermediate terms. Esse pattern suggests that the market is pricing in moderate growth combined with controlled inflation in the coming quarters.
Recent data on economic activity in the US shows resilience, with low unemployment and sustained consumption. However, external factors such as tariffs can compromise exports and increase internal costs.
Federal Reserve maintains cautious speech about additional cuts in basic interest rates. Autoridades monitor inflation and employment indicators before new monetary policy decisions.
Perspectives for the next trading sessions
Investors await concrete signals about negotiations between Washington and European capitals. Qualquer retreat in tariff threats could trigger a rapid recovery in long-term yields.
On the other hand, confirmation of protectionist measures would tend to reinforce the selling movement by Treasuries. Analistas estimate that the 10-year yield could retest the 4.4% to 4.5% range in the event of diplomatic deterioration.
The market remains attentive to additional speeches from American and European authorities in the coming days. The evolution of the impasse over Groenlândia will be decisive for the direction of global fixed income assets.
Factors monitored by the market
Several elements influence price formation in the Treasuries currently. Entre they highlight American fiscal issues, with persistent deficits and high public debt.
- Projected budget deficit above 6% of GDP
- Public debt exceeding 130% of GDP
- Projections for moderate global growth in 2026
- Risks of imported inflation via tariffs
These points combined keep investors on permanent alert. The combination of internal and external factors creates a highly volatile environment for American sovereign bonds.
Treasuries yields continue to serve as a global risk barometer. Qualquer significant change directly impacts emerging markets, including Brasil, through capital flows and external financing costs.