The consumer price index (CPI) in the Estados Unidos registered an annual increase of 2.4% in January 2026, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this Friday, February 13th. The result was below the average projection of economists, who expected an increase of 2.5%, and marks a slowdown in relation to the 2.7% observed in December 2025. Essa reading represents the lowest level since May 2025, the period before the implementation of the tariffs known as “liberation day”.
The monthly variation of the headline CPI was in line with estimates, registering an increase of around 0.3%. Já core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, maintained a stable trajectory, contributing to the general cooling of prices. Esses numbers arrive at a time when the market is paying attention to the effects of trade policies adopted in the previous year.
The report reinforces signs that inflation is gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels. Analistas highlight that the result offers additional margin for Federal Reserve to evaluate adjustments in the basic interest rate without immediate risks of resumption of inflation.
Details of the released report
The all-items CPI increased 2.4% in the annual comparison, confirming the slowing trend observed in recent months. Esse index had reached a peak above 3% in September 2025 and has been declining since then. The January reading places inflation close to the average recorded between 2017 and 2019.
On a monthly basis, both the headline and core CPI showed gains of 0.3%. Economistas closely monitor these components as they indicate persistent pressures in specific sectors of the economy. Below-consensus behavior over the past four months suggests firmer control over prices.
- Food: maintained moderate contributions to the general index.
- Energy: recorded drops that helped contain the headline.
- Housing: continued as the main driver of pressure in the core.
- Transport: showed limited variations in the period.
Effects of trade tariffs
The tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump in 2025 generated initial concerns about accelerated inflation. However, the impact observed until January 2026 remained contained, with estimated contributions of around 0.07 percentage points to the core. Setores such as clothing, recreation, and home furnishings have absorbed some of these pressures.
Analysts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs point out that the tariff effects are still evident in current data. Apesar of this, general inflation returns to levels consistent with the pre-tariff period. Essa resilience of the American economy demonstrates the ability to absorb external shocks without significant imbalances.
Federal Reserve maintains a reference rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, a high level compared to pre-Covid. With inflation at 2.4%, authorities gain space for possible gradual reductions in interest rates. Essa flexibility depends on additional indicators, including the labor market.
Immediate market reactions
Financial markets reacted positively to the release, with index futures recovering some of the losses recorded following January’s strong jobs report. The creation of 130,000 jobs and the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3% had raised fears of continued high interest rates. The softer inflation reading eased those concerns.
Investors interpret the CPI as a dovish signal for the Fed. Essa outlook favors risk assets, including shares, in a controlled inflation scenario. Analistas of funds like Fundstrat highlight that normal price conditions persist despite tariff remnants.
The combination of solid employment and moderate inflation reinforces optimism about a soft landing for the American economy. Bancos global centers monitor US data as they influence monetary policy decisions in other countries. The dollar maintained relative stability against major currencies after the release.
Labor market context
The jobs report released the previous week showed the creation of 130 thousand jobs in January, with unemployment at 4.3%. Esses numbers indicate resilience of the labor market even with high interest rates. The duality between strong employment and cooling inflation creates a delicate balance for the Fed.
Economists note that wages continue to grow at a moderate pace, avoiding inflationary spirals. Essa dynamics sustain domestic consumption without generating new demand pressures. The balance between these indicators defines the schedule for possible interest cuts throughout 2026.
Outlook for specific categories
Tariff-sensitive sectors, such as imported goods, showed limited increases in the period. Itens in personal care and education registered variations within expectations. The drop in energy prices contributed decisively to the lower headline.
Housing remains the component with the greatest inertia in core inflation. Aluguéis and equivalent costs remain high, although with initial signs of moderation in some regions. Analistas projects a gradual smaller contribution from these items in the coming months.
- Clothing: tariff impact absorbed without large transfers.
- Recreation: controlled seasonal variations.
- Furniture: persistent moderate pressures.
- Education: stable annual advances.
Implications for monetary policy
The Federal Reserve gains additional confidence to calibrate its restrictive stance. Current Taxas remains above neutral levels, offering scope for downward adjustments. Autoridades monitor risks of inflationary relapse, but recent data points to a downward trend.
The 2% target of Fed has not yet been fully achieved, but the progress observed in January reinforces expectations of gradual convergence. Reuniões committee futures will assess the balance between growth and price stability. Mercado prices a greater probability of cuts from the second quarter onwards.
This CPI reading consolidates a manageable inflation scenario at Estados Unidos. The economy demonstrates the ability to navigate external shocks while maintaining moderate expansion. Subsequent Indicadores, such as PPI and retail sales, will complement the macroeconomic picture.
Volatile component analysis
Food and energy exerted a deflationary influence on the January headline. Preços of fuels fell in the period, offsetting advances in other categories. Essa typical volatility at the beginning of the year did not change the core bottom trend.
The core CPI, preferred by Fed for long-term decisions, remained resilient but without accelerations. Serviços excluding housing showed further slowdown, in line with normal demand conditions. Esses details reinforce the credibility of the ongoing disinflationary process.
