In a significant escalation of regional hostilities, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly launched a new wave of missiles and drones toward several Middle Eastern nations this past Sunday, January 1st. Thick columns of smoke were observed rising from an area adjacent to Abu Dhabi’s port, following a series of powerful explosions that resonated across the city. The precise targets and extent of damage in the area remain under immediate assessment.
These coordinated attacks transpired just a day after an announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, detailing the commencement of “major combat operations” by the United States and Israel against Iran. Trump had vowed to dismantle Iran’s armed forces and neutralize its nuclear program, intensifying an already volatile geopolitical landscape.
The situation was further inflamed by the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Saturday, December 28th, an event that has sent shockwaves across the region and beyond, significantly altering the dynamics of power and retaliation.
Iran’s formidable missile arsenal
Iran maintains what is widely recognized as the Middle East’s most extensive and diverse missile arsenal, comprising thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles. A 2021 analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Missile Threat Project indicated that some of these projectiles are theoretically capable of reaching Israel and even parts of southeastern Europe, posing a substantial regional threat.
While specific inventory numbers for each missile type are not publicly disclosed, General Kenneth McKenzie of the U.S. Air Force informed Congress in a 2023 briefing that Iran possessed “over 3,000” ballistic missiles. This assessment underscores the sheer scale of Iran’s conventional deterrence capabilities, as highlighted in a recent 2025 report from the Iran Watch site at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.
Key ballistic missile types
Ballistic missiles typically follow a parabolic trajectory, traveling either outside or near the Earth’s atmosphere’s edge. Once the warhead separates from its booster rocket, it re-enters the atmosphere, descending at high speeds towards its designated target. This flight profile allows for a combination of range and impact force.
Arms specialists, after analyzing social media footage from recent engagements involving Israel, suggest that Iran has deployed variants of its Shahab-3 ballistic missile. The Shahab-3, which entered service in 2003, serves as the foundational design for many of Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles, utilizing a liquid propellant system, according to Patrick Senft, a research coordinator at Armament Research Services (ARES).
The Missile Threat Project notes that the Shahab-3 can carry a significant warhead payload, ranging from 760 to 1,200 kilograms. Its operational flexibility is enhanced by its ability to be launched from both mobile platforms and fixed silos, making it a versatile component of Iran’s strike capabilities. More recent iterations, such as the Ghadr and Emad missiles, have reportedly achieved improved precision, capable of hitting within 300 meters of their targets, as detailed by Iran Watch.
The hypersonic debate: Fattah-1’s capabilities
Iranian state media has recently claimed the use of a new missile, the Fattah-1, in these latest attacks. Tehran describes the Fattah-1 as “hypersonic,” indicating it travels at speeds exceeding Mach 5, or approximately 3,800 miles per hour (6,100 kilometers per hour).
However, many defense analysts emphasize that nearly all ballistic missiles naturally achieve hypersonic velocities during various phases of their flight, particularly as they descend towards their targets. The term “hypersonic” in military parlance often specifically refers to highly advanced weapons like hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs), which can maneuver at hypersonic speeds within the Earth’s atmosphere, rendering them exceptionally challenging to intercept.
According to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Fattah-1 does not appear to fall into either of these advanced categories, a point he elaborated on in his recent analyses. Hinz suggests that the Fattah-1 likely incorporates a “maneuverable re-entry vehicle” within its warhead, enabling it to perform limited adjustments during its terminal descent to potentially evade missile defense systems. While not a true HGV or HCM, this capability would still represent a notable technological advancement for Iran compared to its earlier missile designs.
Despite official claims, experts remain largely skeptical regarding the actual deployment of the Fattah-1 in recent engagements. Trevor Ball, a former senior explosive ordnance technician with the U.S. Army, noted the inherent risks. “It’s one of their newest ballistic missiles, and they have a lot to lose by using it,” Ball explained. “Israel would gain valuable intelligence on its capabilities simply from its use. There’s also the chance of failure, which would give Israel even more insight. By simply claiming its use, they receive free propaganda without risking anything.”
Regional landscape transforms
The recent volley of missile attacks by Iran on Israeli territory has undeniably ushered in a new and dangerous phase of the Middle East conflict. On one side stands Israel, bolstered by the steadfast support of the United States. Arrayed against it is the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of paramilitary groups receiving substantial financial and military backing from Iran, including pivotal players like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Currently, seven distinct fronts of conflict are active: the Islamic Republic of Iran itself; Hamas in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Syrian government and various militias operating within Syria; the Houthis in Yemen; Shia groups in Iraq; and a range of militant organizations across the West Bank.
Gaza and West Bank fronts
Israel’s military is directly engaged on three of these fronts: Lebanon, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip, while conducting aerial bombardments in the other four. A limited ground operation was initiated by the Israeli military in Lebanon around September 30th, just days after Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a precision strike on the group’s headquarters in a Beirut suburb. Israel’s Defense Forces maintain they have largely decimated Hezbollah’s command structure through a series of similar bombings in recent weeks.
The West Bank remains a flashpoint where Israeli forces are actively working to dismantle groups opposing Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, frequently leading to clashes and heightened tensions. Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, Israel’s primary objective continues to be the eradication of Hamas, the group responsible for the October 7th, 2024 attacks that resulted in over 1,200 deaths, according to Israeli government figures. The subsequent Israeli military operation in Gaza has led to more than 40,000 Palestinian casualties, as reported by the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health in the enclave. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, is believed to remain in hiding within Gaza’s extensive tunnel network, alongside dozens of Israeli hostages seized during the initial October attacks.
International reactions and humanitarian impact
September 23rd marked Lebanon’s deadliest day since the 2006 war, with over 500 casualties reported. Tragically, at least two Brazilian teenagers were among those killed in the escalating attacks. Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly condemned the escalating violence and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. In response to the increasing danger, the Brazilian government announced an urgent operation to repatriate its citizens from Lebanon, underscoring the severe humanitarian impact of the ongoing conflict across the region.
Uncertain future
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the ensuing military escalations have plunged the Middle East into an even more precarious state. With both major powers and regional actors intensifying their actions, the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty, demanding urgent international attention and diplomatic efforts to avert further widespread conflict.
