The armed conflict between Estados Unidos, Israel and Irã, which began on February 28, 2026, has disrupted traffic through Estreito from The maritime route, through which more than 20 million barrels of oil transit daily, equivalent to around a fifth of the world’s supply, faces partial or total blockages due to the military escalation. Empresas shipping companies such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM suspended passages through the route from March 1, prioritizing the safety of crews and cargo.
Experts point out that the strike affects not only oil, but also fertilizers, plastics, food and maritime freight on a global scale. The Brasil feels impacts on exports to the Oriente Médio, such as sugar, chicken and soy, in addition to indirect pressures on logistics and energy costs. The recent rise in the price of oil
The interruption at Estreito from Ormuz forces reroutes of sea routes, with ships opting for alternative routes around Congestionamentos in hubs like Singapura have occurred in similar episodes in the past, and analysts predict a repeat of this pattern. Brazilian pre-salt oil production, with low carbon emissions, positions the country as a possible alternative supplier for affected markets.
Immediate impacts on maritime transport
The suspension of transit by large shipowners leaves at least 150 oil tankers anchored in open waters, awaiting safety instructions. Isso reduces global logistics capacity and puts pressure on cargo insurance, with higher premiums due to the high risk in the region.
Container transport companies evaluate scenarios of prolonged delays in international deliveries. Rerouting to longer routes consumes more fuel and generates additional emissions, increasing operational costs at a time of energy transition.
Sectors most vulnerable to disruption
Energy faces the biggest immediate risk, with forecasts that a barrel could reach US$120 in the event of a prolonged and intense war. Fontes alternatives, such as pipelines from Arábia Saudita to Mar Vermelho and from Emirados Árabes Unidos to Golfo of
Global agribusiness suffers from interruptions in the flow of fertilizers and food. The Irã imports Brazilian corn in significant volumes, and the Oriente Médio region depends on external supplies, which can generate localized shortages and high prices.
Opportunities for alternative producers
Brasil, the world’s ninth largest oil exporter, can gain market share by offering a reliable product with a lower carbon footprint compared to some regional producers. Concorrentes as well as Nigéria, Guiana and Guiné Equatorial compete for the same share.
The diversification of fertilizer sources, initiated after previous conflicts, helps the country mitigate import risks. Fornecedores at Ásia Central and Leste Europeu already meet part of Brazilian demand.
Risks for Brazilian exports
Exports to Golfo Pérsico face direct logistical barriers, with ships avoiding the conflict zone. Produtos such as soybeans and chicken can accumulate delays, impacting producers’ contracts and revenues.
Pressure on global maritime freight increases costs for Brazilian importers and exporters on Ásia-Brazil routes. Episódios of 2024, with a tripling of prices on certain routes, serves as a warning for the current scenario.
Ongoing mitigation strategies
Global companies accelerate route and supplier diversification plans to reduce dependence on critical passages. Constant monitoring of the situation at Golfo Pérsico guides daily operational decisions.
The search for energy and logistics alternatives gains urgency. Analistas highlight the need for resilient planning to address prolonged volatility in international trade.
The conflict forcibly reshapes supply chains, with effects that extend beyond the affected region. Global maritime logistics face a significant test, and the outcome depends on the duration of the military escalation.
