The general elections in Nepal, held on March 5, 2026, point to a historic change in the country’s political scenario. The Partido Rastriya Swatantra (RSP), led by the former mayor of Catmandu Balendra Shah (Balen Shah), leads in approximately 110 of the 165 directly contested seats, with several victories already confirmed. Balen Shah widened his lead in constituency Jhapa-5 against former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, beating him by more than 10,000 votes in advanced partial counts. Comissão Eleitoral reported that the full investigation should be completed by March 9, but the partial numbers already indicate clear dominance by the RSP.
Voter turnout was around 58% to 60%, the lowest recorded since the restoration of democracy in 1990. The election took place in a calm atmosphere, after the intense protests by generation Z in September 2025 that overthrew the previous government and paved the way for this early election.
RSP dominance in Vale of Catmandu and in urban areas
Partido Rastriya Swatantra consolidated a significant lead in Vale from Catmandu, where it appears ahead in 14 of the 15 available seats. RSP’s Candidatos won or led comfortably in all 10 constituencies of Catmandu, with names like Ranju Darshana Neupane in Kathmandu-1 and other independent candidates who migrated to the party.
This performance reflects dissatisfaction with traditional parties. The RSP, created in 2022, attracted young, urban voters seeking political renewal. Vitórias isolated from Congresso Nepalês, as in Mustang, did not change the general picture of dominance of the new party.
Balen Shah maintains wide lead against Oli in Jhapa-5
In constituency Jhapa-5, Balendra Shah has progressively expanded its lead since the start of counting. Dados partials show Shah with more than 13 thousand votes against around 3 thousand for KP Sharma Oli, resulting in a difference of more than 10 thousand votes. Oli, who won in this same area in the 2017 and 2022 elections, faces significant defeat in his historic stronghold.
Other candidates in the race had much lower numbers. The RSP’s declaration that Shah is the candidate for prime minister reinforced its projection throughout the campaign. The advantage has remained consistent across all Comissão Eleitoral updates.
Main highlights of the investigation so far
- RSP leads in around 110 direct seats, with at least 4 confirmed victories
- Congress Nepalês wins a few isolated seats and leads in approximately 11
- CPN-UML of KP Oli appears ahead in few constituencies, with weak performance
- Party Comunista Nepalês of Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) also records limited leadership
- Other smaller parties share the rest of the prominent positions
These partial numbers indicate that the RSP could approach an absolute majority in the 165 direct seats. The proportional distribution of the remaining 110 seats still depends on the total national votes.
Political trajectory of Balen Shah and rise of the RSP
Balendra Shah began his career as an underground rapper, with lyrics that denounced corruption, poverty and social inequality. Sua popularity among young people led him to win the mayorship of Catmandu as an independent in 2022, becoming the first mayor without party affiliation in the capital. In 2023, he was included in international lists of influential personalities.
His membership of the RSP at the end of 2025 boosted the party, which began to attract crowds at rallies. Shah resigned from the mayor’s office to run for parliament, focusing his campaign on youth employment, combating corruption and administrative reform.
Electoral system explains RSP’s strength in direct seats
The Nepal uses a mixed system to elect the 275 deputies of the Câmara of the Representantes. The 165 direct seats follow simple majority voting in single-member constituencies, where the candidate with the most votes wins. The remaining 110 are distributed proportionally according to the national vote by party.
This model allows smaller parties to gain space. The RSP’s leadership in direct seats positions the party to form a government with less dependence on coalitions, different from the pattern of recent elections.
Youth migration as a central theme of the campaign
The mass departure of young people to work abroad dominated electoral debates. Milhares migrate annually to Golfo and Malásia countries due to a lack of local opportunities. Partidos promised measures to generate internal jobs and combat fraud in recruitment agencies.
Proposals included psychological support for migrants and greater transparency in worker sending processes. Discontent with this scenario favored the RSP, especially among younger voters.
Interest of regional powers in the result
States Unidos, China and Índia followed the election closely due to the strategic position of Nepal. Washington declared willingness to cooperate with any elected democratic government. Índia highlighted the need for stability and provided assistance to the electoral process.
China adopted a cautious stance, maintaining contacts and offering financial assistance with conditions. The result can change influence dynamics in Sul from Ásia.
Investigation advances and definition of government approaches
Comissão Eleitoral is working to complete the count in the coming days. Resultados partials maintain a favorable trend for the RSP. Líderes of traditional parties already recognize the inferior performance.
The formation of the new government will depend on the finalization of direct seats and proportionality. The RSP is approaching an unprecedented scenario of its own majority.
