As the cinema’s gala night approaches, discussions about the likely winners and the works that should be recognized at Oscar 2026 are gaining momentum among critics and cinephiles. Este year, the awards season is full of expectations, with some titles emerging as absolute favorites, while others, critically acclaimed, run the risk of being forgotten by Academia.
Anticipation is high for the event, which traditionally celebrates the best of global filmmaking, generating heated debates about artistic merit and industry preferences. Nossos experts analyze the main categories, weighing up between what is expected to win the statuette and what, for artistic justice, would deserve recognition.
Below is a detailed look at the predictions and nominations that could have further enriched the list of competitors, preparing the ground for the ceremony.
Analysis of the best film category
In the most coveted category, Melhor Filme, current projections point to “Sinners” as the big favorite. The production, which has generated considerable buzz since its release, appears to have won over both the public and a significant portion of critics, placing it in the front line for the night’s top prize.
However, expert opinion suggests that “The Agente Secreto” would be the fairest winner, given its narrative depth and exquisite execution that resonated strongly with critics. Além In addition, “The Mestre of the Crimes” appears as a strong competitor who, for some reason, did not get the nomination, representing a notable gap in the list of finalists.
Highlights in direction and male performances
For Melhor Direção, Paul Thomas Anderson is acclaimed for his work on “One Battle After Another”, being unanimous in predicting victory and indicating who should, in fact, take home the prize. Sua’s ability to orchestrate complex narratives and remarkable performances places him in an unquestionable prominent position this year. Critic Kleber Mendonça Filho, in turn, should have been nominated for “The Secret Agent”, highlighting a talent that deserved greater recognition.
In the field of acting, Michael B. Jordan stands out as the likely Melhor Ator for his role in “Sinners”, delivering a performance that captured the attention of Academia. Contudo, Timothée Chalamet, for his performance in “Marty Josh O’Connor, with his participation in “The Mastermind”, is remembered as an actor who deserved to be among the nominees.
Female performance and supporting roles
Jessie Sua ability to delve into complex characters and convey deep emotions puts her in the spotlight. Jennifer Lawrence, in turn, with “Die My Love”, is cited as a notable absence from the list of nominees, a performance that would certainly add weight to the competition.
In the category of Melhor Ator Coadjuvante, Delroy Lindo is the name that appears most in the predictions for his work in “Sinners”, and is also considered the most worthy of receiving the award. Sua remarkable presence and the impact of his performance are undeniable. Russell Crowe, for his role in “Nuremberg”, is highlighted as a talented actor who should have competed in this category, demonstrating the wealth of talent in the film year.
For Melhor Atriz Coadjuvante, Wunmi Mosaku is the favorite for “Sinners”, while Teyana Taylor from “One Battle After Another” is the ideal choice for the award from a critical perspective. Sua performance has been praised for its strength and originality. Gwyneth Paltrow, in turn, in “Marty Supreme”, is mentioned as a notable actress who deserved a place among the nominees, reinforcing the idea that great performances are sometimes left out.
Animated films and original scripts
The Melhor Longa-Animação Film category has “Zootopia 2” as the most likely name for victory, a film that promises to delight audiences of all ages with its narrative and visuals. However, the film “A Pequena Amélie” is considered the most deserving of the award, due to the innovation and sensitivity of its approach. “Fixed” is another title that, despite its quality, failed to get a nomination, demonstrating the competitiveness of the genre.
Regarding Melhor Roteiro Original, “Sinners” is the main bet for victory, recognizing the originality and strength of its writing. Paralelamente, “It Was Just an Accident” is highlighted as the script that, in fact, should be awarded, praised for its intelligent construction and impactful dialogues. “Black Bag” is also remembered as an original script that deserved to be in contention, with a plot that intrigued many critics.
Adaptations and documentaries in focus
Melhor Roteiro Adaptado has “Uma Batalha Após a Outra” as his favorite and, in the critical view, as the most deserving of the statuette. The complexity of its adaptation and fidelity to the original material, combined with a new perspective, place it in a prominent position. A work that deserved to be a competitor, but wasn’t, is “No Vamos Deixar a Coisa Cair Esta Noite”, which demonstrated a remarkable skill in transposing its source onto the screen.
In the Melhor Documentário category, “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” is widely considered the likely winner and the one who should actually be awarded. The relevance of its theme, the depth of the investigation and the courage in its approach make it stand out on the documentary scene. “Ocean With David Attenborough” is highlighted as a documentary that, without a doubt, would have enriched the list of nominees, with its beauty and environmental impact.
International productions and technical aspects
For Melhor Longa-Metragem Internacional, predictions turn to “Valor Contudo, “O “A Torre de Gelo” is remembered as a film that could have been a strong competitor, given its international repercussion.
In the category of Melhor Design of Produção, “Hamnet” is the undisputed favorite, recognized for its period reconstruction and the detail of its settings. It is an expected and deserved victory. “Bugonia” is cited as a film that, with its innovative art direction, would have made an excellent addition to the list of contenders, showcasing the diversity and creativity of contemporary production design.
Photography, makeup and costumes
In Melhor Cinematografia, “Train Dreams” is the strong candidate for victory and, according to experts, the work that should be awarded. The mastery of capturing images and the visual sensitivity of the film make it stand out. “The Secret Agent” is highlighted as a film that, with its striking photography, deserved to be among the competitors, consolidating the technical quality of the production.
For Melhor Maquiagem and Cabelo, “Frankenstein” is the film that should win the award, a recognition of their transformative work and impressive visual effects. Este is also the film that, in the critical view, most deserves the statuette. “Blue Moon” is cited as a production that would have been a strong competitor, showing the originality and complexity of its makeup and hair design.
Finally, in Melhor Design of Figurino, “Sinners” is the favorite to win and also the most deserving. The film’s costumes contributed significantly to the narrative and character development. “The Phoenician Scheme” is remembered as a film that, with its authentic and detailed costume design, could have been a strong contender, highlighting the talent and research behind the cinematic costumes.
The predictions for Oscar 2026 reflect the richness and diversity of the current cinematographic scene, presenting both consensual favorites and works that, in critical opinion, deserve greater prominence. The ceremony promises to be a stage for emotions, celebrations and, as usual, some surprises. Academia’s choices, after all, always open space for a rich debate about the criteria that define the “best” of cinema each year, maintaining the relevance and fascination for one of the most important awards in the industry.