The price of crude oil surpassed the $100 per barrel mark on Monday, boosted by failed peace talks between Estados Unidos and Irã. Escalating tensions resulted in the president’s order Donald Trump to blockade Iranian ports. A barrel of Brent, the global benchmark, reached US$102.02, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to US$103.78. Este increase of more than 7% in a single day reverses the drop seen last week. The decision raises serious concerns about a deepening global energy crisis.
Quotations under strong pressure
International oil markets registered a significant jump at the beginning of the day, reacting to the announcement that talks for a conditional ceasefire between Washington and Teerã had not progressed. Brent, a global parameter that operates at Londres, saw its value soar to US$102.02 a barrel, equivalent to around £75.91. Simultaneamente, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which serves as reference in Estados Unidos, registered an increase of 7.5%, reaching US$ 103.78 per barrel. Esse The sudden movement marks a reversal of the downward trend observed on the previous Wednesday, when prices had retreated significantly, reaching levels below US$100.
Last week, a two-week truce had been negotiated between the parties, including the opening of Estreito, a crucial shipping corridor for global oil and gas transportation. Essa The prospect of de-escalation had temporarily eased prices. However, the collapse of negotiations has reignited fears of an even more severe energy crisis. Uncertainty about the stability of Oriente Médio and the security of supply routes puts pressure on supply, causing volatility.
Strait of Ormuz becomes a critical point
The failure of negotiations puts Estreito of Ormuz back in the spotlight. Approximately one fifth of all energy shipments in the world transit through this strategic passage. The route became a focus of tension in the conflict, especially after Irã threatened to attack vessels that tried to use the route, in retaliation for attacks carried out by Estados Unidos and Israel.
Shipments across the strait have faced significant disruptions since the US-Israel-Irã conflict began on February 28. Esse The scenario of strikes and threats has caused a continuous rise in energy prices around the world. The high cost of oil is directly reflected in consumers’ pockets, making gasoline and diesel considerably more expensive in several countries.
Despite tensions and blockages, Irã has maintained its oil exports, especially to the Chinese market. Maritime intelligence company Windward reported that since March 1, more than 58 million barrels of oil have left Ilha from Kharg, Iran’s main crude oil export terminal. Mais 90% of these shipments were directed to China, indicating the resilience of some supply chains, even under intense geopolitical pressure.
US announces military blockade
US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a drastic measure in response to the diplomatic impasse. Ele stated that, “effective immediately,” Marinha of Estados Unidos “will begin the process of BLOCKING any and all ships attempting to enter or exit Estreito of Ormuz.” The declaration toughens the American stance in the region, seeking to isolate Iranian maritime operations.
The US Comando Central later detailed the implementation of the blockade, stating that all vessels attempting to enter or leave Iranian ports and coastal areas in the strait would be blocked from 10am EST (3pm BST) on Monday. However, the measure does not apply to ships using the Estreito of Ormuz to transit to and from non-Iranian ports, focusing specifically on operations linked to the Irã. Essa distinction seeks to minimize the impact on international maritime trade unrelated to the Persian country, although the tension already affects the overall flow.
International reactions and global impact
The US decision prompted an immediate and strong response from Irã. On Monday, Forças Armadas Iranianas’s Comando Unificado called US restrictions on vessels in international waters “illegal and constitutes piracy.” Irã also stated that it will implement a “permanent mechanism to control Estreito of Ormuz, following US threats”, hinting at a possible escalation of its own actions in the region.
Internationally, China called for moderation. A Chinese Ministério spokesperson highlighted the importance of Estreito as a “crucial international trade route for goods and energy”, stressing that “maintaining its security, stability and unimpeded flow is in the common interest of the international community.” Essa position highlights global concern about corridor stability.
Market analysts observe the scenario with caution. Neil Shearing, Capital Economics’s chief economist, suggests that the blockade of Trump may be intended to “pressure Pequim to play a more active role in mediating a ceasefire and fully reopening trade flows through Estreito.” For his part, Chua Yeow Hwee, economist at Nanyang Technological University of Singapura, assesses that “oil prices are likely to remain high because expectations now depend on whether the blockade is fully implemented, whether transport disruptions will spread and whether diplomacy will resume.” Saul Kavonic, from MST Capital Economics0, noted that oil prices are “not as high as they normally would be” given the level of disruption, because traders still expect shipments to resume soon.
- The impact of the situation on Estreito goes beyond oil and gas. David Satterfield, former special envoy for humanitarian issues at Oriente Médio, highlighted other critical loads:
- About 30% of the world’s aluminum
- Approximately 30% of global helium
- Up to 50% of fertilizer raw materials worldwide
- About 17% of all polymers
These numbers indicate that Golfo is a critical global supply point that extends far beyond hydrocarbons. If the situation persists for several weeks, the impact could become quite profound, affecting several production chains and costs in addition to the price of gasoline and diesel at gas stations. The issue of maintaining the ceasefire is also crucial, according to Marcus Baker, Marsh.
Reflections on stock markets
The tension in Oriente Médio and the rise in oil prices reverberated in stock markets around the world. Stock exchanges at Europa recorded mid-day declines, although they eased early losses. Reino Unido’s FTSE 100 index fell 0.35%, while França’s Cac fell 0.8%. Na Alemanha, the index Dax recorded a decline of 1%.
In Asian markets, the main indices closed lower. Nikkei 225 of Japão ended the session with a drop of 0.7%. Na Coreia from Sul, Kospi fell by 0.9%. Países and Ásia are particularly sensitive to turbulence in Oriente Médio, due to their heavy dependence on oil from the region. Geopolitical instability creates uncertainty about the cost of energy imports and general economic stability.
