The initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space exploration company, could represent a significant change in the technology investment landscape. With an estimated valuation of US$1.75 trillion (approximately 278.25 trillion yen), the IPO would be one of the largest in history. The big risk for Tesla is that investors tired of waiting for the company’s promises to come true may migrate to an alternative that seems more tangible and stable.
The situation reflects a structural problem faced by Tesla. Enquanto the company expects its new artificial intelligence and robotics businesses to start contributing significantly as its traditional businesses slow down. Investidores who bet on the “myth of Musk” now see SpaceX as a more concrete opportunity with less uncertainty.
SpaceX as a more attractive alternative
Sob the leadership of CEO Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX operates stably and reliably. The company has established itself as an essential provider of space services, with few direct competitors in the market. Essa’s operational strength contrasts with Tesla, which faces constant pressure over its future promises in quarterly reports.
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki and investor in both SpaceX and Tesla, summed up the issue clearly. “Many Tesla investors view SpaceX as a better investment for several reasons,” said Gerber, whose asset management firm has more than $4 billion in assets under management. Segundo he, selling Tesla shares could be interpreted as getting rid of an overvalued stock, while investing in SpaceX would represent a bet on real growth and potential for substantial profits.
Market dynamics suggest that many analysts and investors share this perception. SpaceX doesn’t need to explain timelines for technologies still in development or justify valuations based on future promises. Seus services already generate revenue and demonstrate operational viability. Esse’s contrast makes the company particularly attractive to those seeking exposure to the “hype” of Musk with less uncertainty.
Tesla faces electric vehicle sales stabilization
Tesla’s Q1 2025 results illustrate the challenges facing the electric vehicle maker. Net profit reached US$477 million (approximately 75.8 billion yen), an increase of 16% compared to the previous year. However, this performance is significantly lower than previous quarters. In the period from October to December 2024, the company had recorded a profit of US$844 million (approximately 134.2 billion yen).
Total revenue grew 16% to US$22.4 billion (approximately 3.56 trillion yen), but was also below the previous three quarters. The battery segment, which had performed well in the previous year, contracted 12% in the first quarter. Esses numbers reveal a difficult transition. The company is moving away from its core business of selling electric vehicles, which built its brand and reputation. Essa change is not optional as EV sales are stabilizing globally.
Tesla is in a period of fundamental transformation. Enquanto aguarda que novos negócios relacionados à inteligência artificial comecem a contribuir significativamente para sua receita, seus negócios tradicionais arrefecem. Esse midstream vacuum creates space for investors to move to alternatives.
Negócios futures do not yet generate revenue
Dois Tesla’s key projects do not yet contribute materially to its financial results. The robotaxi service, which operates on a small scale mainly on Texas with human safety drivers, has not yet reported any revenue. Da Likewise, the humanoid robot “Optimus”, touted as a future source of long-term revenue, remains far from mass production.
The company intends to invest at least US$25 billion (approximately 3.98 trillion yen) to realize Musk’s vision in artificial intelligence and robotics. Esse amount reflects the ambition of the project. Porém, for investors, remains a bet on the future, not present income. Tesla is asking its shareholders for patience as it funnels resources into technologies that could take years to generate financial returns.
Stock Desempenho Reflects Uncertainty
The market has already signaled its concern. Tesla shares closed down 3.6% on April 23, 2025, at $373.72. Acumulando losses for the year, the stock depreciated approximately 17%. Essa’s trajectory contrasts with the lofty outlook surrounding SpaceX’s potential IPO. Enquanto to Tesla struggles to justify its current valuation, SpaceX is seen as having great potential for future growth.
Traditional competition is no longer Tesla’s biggest problem. Chinese electric vehicle Fabricantes and the global slowdown in demand for EVs are real but manageable challenges. The real risk for the Musk company is that investors opt for an alternative within the entrepreneur’s own portfolio: SpaceX.
Contexto transitioning to new business
Tesla has always been a transition company. Começou as a luxury vehicle manufacturer and aims to become a smart and autonomous mobility technology company. Esse process takes time. Entretanto, market pressures do not wait for corporate timelines. Investidores need clear signs of progress and value creation. In the case of Tesla, these signals remain ambiguous.
SpaceX, for its part, offers a different narrative. The company is already profitable, already operates on a commercial scale, and is expanding its market. A SpaceX IPO would offer investors a way to bet on future growth within an already solid business foundation. Para many, this is more attractive than waiting for Tesla’s robots to finally hit the market.
SpaceX’s potential IPO marks a critical moment for Tesla. The company will have to more clearly demonstrate the value of its initiatives in artificial intelligence and robotics, or risk seeing investors reallocate to opportunities that appear less speculative.