BYD Company Limited reported a 55.4% drop in Q1 2026 profit to RMB 4.09 billion, while domestic electric vehicle sales fell 15.5% year-on-year. The result puts pressure on the prices of share 1211 traded at Hong Kong, where the stock closes at HK$99.30 this Tuesday. The deterioration in profits contrasts with the performance of exports, which reached a record 135 thousand units in April, growth of 70% compared to the same month of the previous year.
Investor sentiment faces mixed dynamics. Abril brought sales of 321,123 units of new generation vehicles, an increase of 6.96% over March, but marked the eighth consecutive month of annual decline. Analistas who cover the company recognize the immediate pressure. At the same time, they see international shipments as a long-term support factor for the Chinese company.
Metas price range between HK$87 and HK$147
Third-party projections for next year reflect deep disagreements about the recovery of profitability. Goldman Sachs sets a price target of HK$134 with a buy recommendation, understanding that the first quarter represents the lowest point for sales and net profit. The brokerage expects a gradual recovery between the second and fourth quarters, with demand for fast charging models as a catalyst. Nomura reiterates buy with target of HK$127, above the previous estimate of HK$123, betting on international expansion as a sustainable driver.
BNP Paribas adopts a more cautious stance. The institution assigns an underperform rating to the market with a target price of HK$87, the most conservative assessment among banks that analyzed the results. The bank signals pressure to lower profit projections, citing a sharp drop in net profit compared to the previous year and uncertainty regarding the pace of recovery in domestic margins. Citigroup maintains buy target of HK$142, forecasting that Q2 core net profit could reach around 11.30 billion RMB if overseas volumes hold and domestic prices stabilize.
Análise consensus points to stability despite revisions
The Simply Wall St aggregation includes 25 analysts covering BYD. The average target remains at HK$124 for the next twelve months, unchanged despite downward revisions to revenue and earnings per share estimates for 2026. The highest estimate reaches HK$147, while the most conservative is HK$86.99. Conforme the platform, the difference between reviews would not materially change the company’s long-term valuation. The most optimistic views focus on the growth in international deliveries, expectations of a recovery in domestic profits from the second quarter and better-than-expected gross profit margins.
Essa variety of perspectives coexists with the reality of current numbers. Apenas the export division provides dynamism to the corporate narrative. The domestic market faces intense competitive pressure with price wars between electric vehicle manufacturers, eroding margins. The quarter’s compressed profit reflects these challenging dynamics. Investidores that bet on recovery cite the potential for price stabilization in the second half of the year and exponential growth abroad as reasons to maintain a long position.
Indicadores technicals show near-term weakness
The 1211 share price sits at HK$99.30, in line with the 100-day simple moving average at HK$99.64. Permanece, however, below the dense band of moving averages encompassing the 20-, 50- and 200-day SMA at approximately HK$106, HK$103 and HK$104, respectively. The set of moving averages from 10 to 200 days shows a sell signal. Hull’s nine-period moving average at HK$100.61 points down.
The 14-day relative strength index reads 42.13, a neutral-bearish reading that does not indicate extreme oversold. Sugere limited buying pressure in the short term. The average directional index at 15.76 indicates that the prevailing downtrend lacks strong directional conviction at this time. Para above, the classic R1 pivot at HK$110.78 marks the first resistance above current levels. Daily Fechamento above this level would put the R2 area near HK$119.07 in sight. Para low, the pivot point at HK$105.12 acts as resistance, while S1 at HK$96.83 acts as significant support in case the 100-day average is broken. S2 at HK$91.17 marks the next level.
Recent Histórico Reveals Volatile Two-Year Trajectory
1211 shares hovered between $220 and $250 Hong Kong until mid-2024, a period of relative stability despite intensifying global competition in the electric vehicle market. From the end of September 2024, the stock recovered, rising from around 240 to 320 dollars of Hong Kong in early October, driven by economic stimulus announcements from Pequim that benefited Chinese stocks listed on Hong Kong.
Esse momentum extended into early 2025. BYD shares surpassed Hong Kong’s $465 in late May 2025, the peak of the historical data set. The move coincided with record numbers of international deliveries and growing interest in Chinese technology companies. Strong Reversão followed. Shares fell to Hong Kong’s $310 to $335 range during the April 2025 tariff shock, when the Trump government intensified trade measures against China, before partially stabilizing.
By the end of 2025, the stock had retreated further to the HK$92 to HK$100 range, pressured by deteriorating domestic profit prospects and continued pressure on margins. The shares remained in this compressed range until 2026. The closing at HK$99.30 on May 6, 2026 represents an approximate 74.7% decline from the May 2025 peak and has practically remained stable year-to-date since closing at HK$95.25 on December 31, 2025.
Perspectivas diverge between recovery and continuous pressure
The main points of disagreement among analysts reside in three aspects. Primeiro, the speed and magnitude of the recovery in domestic profits in the second half of 2026. Segundo, the ability of BYD to maintain the pace of growth in exports without sacrificing margins globally. Terceiro, the impact of global trade tensions and tariff policies on access to international markets.
The most optimistic banks argue that the company has gone through the most challenging period and that international momentum offers structural support. More skeptical Instituições point out that margin compression in the domestic market may persist beyond what consensus anticipates, and that international growth may not compensate for domestic weakness in the coming quarters. Share price volatility reflects this genuine uncertainty among market participants.