The latest Datafolha poll revealed a significant decline in the approval rating of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government. According to the survey conducted on February 10 and 11, 2025, only 24% of Brazilians rate the administration as good or excellent. Meanwhile, disapproval has risen to 41%, marking a record low for Lula’s three terms in office. The percentage of respondents who consider the government regular stood at 32%, while 2% either did not know or chose not to answer. These figures indicate growing dissatisfaction with the president’s performance.
The survey interviewed 2,007 voters across 113 municipalities in different regions of Brazil, with a margin of error of two percentage points, either up or down. Compared to the last poll conducted in December 2024, Lula’s approval has plummeted by 11 points, while disapproval has increased by 7 points. This scenario suggests an accelerated erosion of Lula’s public image.
The poll also highlighted that Lula’s popularity has declined significantly among women, low-income voters, and residents of the Northeast—three groups that have historically been strong supporters of the Workers’ Party (PT). Even among those who voted for Lula in the last election, his positive rating has dropped by 20 percentage points.
Approval ratings continue to decline
The numbers suggest that rejection of the government has been growing in recent months, surpassing the historical average of disapproval during Lula’s previous terms. The president entered 2025 with declining popularity, mainly driven by economic factors such as rising inflation and increasing living costs.
Previous surveys had already indicated this downward trend. In December 2024, Lula’s approval was at 35%, while disapproval stood at 34%. The 11-point drop in just two months reflects the electorate’s growing frustration.
The worsening perception of Lula’s administration coincides with an increasingly negative view of the economy. Rising fuel prices, soaring food costs, and unemployment rates have directly affected people’s lives, undermining confidence in the government. Additionally, the Bolsa Família program, one of the administration’s flagship social policies, has not seen an increase in payments since the pandemic, further fueling dissatisfaction among beneficiaries.
Hoje visitamos as obras para a COP 30, em Belém. ????????️
— Lula (@LulaOficial) February 14, 2025
Belém está se transformando para ser palco da maior cúpula climática do mundo. E, com isso, gerando mais empregos, transformando vidas como a do Thiago e sua família. ✨
???? @ricardostuckert pic.twitter.com/lxJSrSX2rS
Who is most dissatisfied with Lula’s government?
The survey found that disapproval of Lula is more pronounced in certain segments of the population. Among women, disapproval rose from 37% to 43%, while among low-income voters (earning up to two minimum wages), negative ratings increased from 29% to 39%. In the Northeast, traditionally a PT stronghold, approval fell from 49% to 38%.
Among voters with higher education, disapproval of the government reached 50%, indicating strong resistance to Lula’s administration among those with a college degree. Discontent is also rising among younger voters (aged 16-24), where disapproval increased by 9 percentage points, signaling challenges in connecting with this demographic.
Government strategies to reverse the negative trend
Faced with these declining numbers, Lula’s administration has intensified its communication strategy and prioritized nationwide visits to reinforce his public image. In recent weeks, the president has traveled to Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, Amapá, and Pará, participating in inaugurations and public events to engage with voters.
The recent replacement of Paulo Pimenta with Sidônio Palmeira as head of the Presidential Communications Secretariat (Secom) also reflects the government’s concern about public perception. The new head of the department is a seasoned political strategist who worked on Lula’s 2022 campaign.
Beyond communication efforts, the government is also betting on economic measures to improve its standing. Plans include raising the minimum wage, advancing the 13th salary payment for retirees, and increasing investments in infrastructure—all initiatives aimed at restoring confidence and boosting the administration’s approval.
Comparing Lula’s approval with past terms
These Datafolha numbers place Lula at one of the lowest approval ratings of his political career. Compared to his previous two terms, the president has never recorded such low approval at the start of his administration.
During his first term (2003-2006), Lula’s popularity declined due to the Mensalão corruption scandal but later rebounded as the economy grew and purchasing power increased. In his second term (2007-2010), Lula maintained high approval ratings, largely driven by Bolsa Família’s success and the global economic boom.
This time, however, the context is different. The Brazilian economy faces structural challenges, inflation is hitting low-income families the hardest, and political opposition has strengthened through social media. Moreover, political fragmentation and polarization make it harder for Lula to regain lost support.
Key findings from the Datafolha poll
- Good/Excellent: 24% (down from 35% in December)
- Regular: 32% (up from 29% in December)
- Bad/Terrible: 41% (up from 34% in December)
- Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 2% (previously 1% in December)
- Total respondents: 2,007 voters across 113 cities
- Margin of error: 2 percentage points up or down
Political reactions to the survey
Opposition leaders have used the poll results to criticize the government and reinforce their argument that Lula is failing to meet expectations. Politicians from the Liberal Party (PL), União Brasil, and Republicanos claim that the numbers demonstrate widespread public dissatisfaction.
Meanwhile, Lula’s allies downplay the significance of the poll, arguing that economic policies need more time to show results. Chief of Staff Rui Costa stated, “The numbers reflect a moment in time, not the government’s trajectory,” signaling the administration’s belief that approval ratings will improve in the coming months.
Impact on the 2026 elections
Lula’s declining approval has raised concerns within the PT about the 2026 presidential election. If the negative trend continues, the party may struggle to secure Lula’s re-election or to present a strong successor.
The government’s strategy over the next two years will be crucial in determining whether this decline is temporary or represents a structural shift in public opinion. Lula has previously demonstrated resilience in overcoming political crises, but reversing such a steep drop in approval will require strategic efforts on multiple fronts.
