White smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney on the afternoon of Thursday, May 8, 2025, signaling that the 133 cardinal electors chose the new leader of the Catholic Church. Thousands of faithful gathered in St. Peter’s Square, Vatican City, now await the official announcement of the 267th pope’s name, succeeding Francis, who passed away on April 21. The election, finalized in the fifth ballot of the conclave, marks the end of a process that began on Wednesday, May 7, keeping the world attentive to the Church’s next chapter.
The conclave, assembling cardinals from 71 countries, was marked by a strict ritual of secrecy and isolation. Expectations grow around Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin, favored by Vatican experts and betting platforms. The choice reflects a search for continuity in Francis’ pastoral approach, with 80% of electors appointed by him.
- Swift voting: The election occurred on the second day, similar to the 2005 and 2013 conclaves.
- Parolin’s favoritism: U.S. bets on the cardinal reached $1.8 million.
- Global diversity: Cardinals from Africa, Asia, and Latin America influenced the process.
Election ritual
On the morning of May 8, black smoke indicated the cardinals had not yet reached a consensus. The afternoon vote, however, brought the expected resolution. After burning the ballots, white smoke appeared at 5:45 p.m. (Brasília time), sparking applause in St. Peter’s Square. The process, governed by the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis, requires the elected to receive two-thirds of the votes, at least 89 of the 133 electors present.
The conclave began with the Pro Eligendo Pontifice Mass, celebrated in St. Peter’s Basilica, presided over by Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re. In the afternoon, the cardinals processed to the Sistine Chapel, where they swore an oath of secrecy. The lockdown, reinforced by signal jammers and sweeps for listening devices, ensured confidentiality.
The choice of the new pope involved intense discussions during the general congregations, held between April 22 and May 5. These meetings addressed topics like evangelization, inclusion, and social challenges, reflecting the diversity of the College of Cardinals.
Pietro Parolin’s profile
Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State, emerges as the leading name speculated to assume the papacy. Born in Schiavon, Italy, on January 17, 1955, Parolin is known for his diplomacy and closeness to Pope Francis. Ordained a priest in 1980, he joined the Holy See’s diplomatic service in 1986, serving in countries like Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela.
With vast experience in the Roman Curia, Parolin is seen as a candidate blending administrative skill with pastoral sensitivity. His fluency in Italian, essential for managing the Curia, and his international background strengthen his position. Since 2013, as Secretary of State, he has led global negotiations, including agreements with China on episcopal appointments.
- Academic background: Doctorate in Canon Law from the Pontifical Gregorian University.
- Diplomatic career: Served as apostolic nuncio in Venezuela before 2013.
- Francis’ support: Named cardinal in 2014, he is an ally of the former pope’s reforms.
- Strategic age: At 70, he could lead a transitional pontificate.
Pietro Parolin’s profile
Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State, emerges as the leading name speculated to assume the papacy. Born in Schiavon, Italy, on January 17, 1955, Parolin is known for his diplomacy and closeness to Pope Francis. Ordained a priest in 1980, he joined the Holy See’s diplomatic service in 1986, serving in countries like Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela.
With vast experience in the Roman Curia, Parolin is seen as a candidate blending administrative skill with pastoral sensitivity. His fluency in Italian, essential for managing the Curia, and his international background strengthen his position. Since 2013, as Secretary of State, he has led global negotiations, including agreements with China on episcopal appointments.
- Academic background: Doctorate in Canon Law from the Pontifical Gregorian University.
- Diplomatic career: Served as apostolic nuncio in Venezuela before 2013.
- Francis’ support: Named cardinal in 2014, he is an ally of the former pope’s reforms.
- Strategic age: At 70, he could lead a transitional pontificate.
Expectation in St. Peter’s Square
Faithful from around the world filled St. Peter’s Square since the conclave’s start. According to Vatican Media, about 45,000 people attended the first day of voting, a number that grew on Thursday. Large screens in the square broadcast live images, keeping the crowd connected to the process.
The wait for the Habemus Papam announcement mobilized tourists and pilgrims. Many carried flags from their countries, while others prayed the rosary in groups. The Pontifical Swiss Guard reinforced security, and the Vatican Gendarmerie monitored the perimeter to prevent incidents.
French Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, the protodeacon, will proclaim the new pope’s name from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. The crowd awaits not only the name but also the pontiff’s first words, as he delivers the Urbi et Orbi blessing.
Other names considered
While Parolin leads speculation, other cardinals were mentioned as possible papabili. Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Patriarch of Jerusalem, gained prominence for his work in the Middle East. At 60, he represents a younger option with experience in conflict zones.
Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, also appeared in betting lists. Known for his charisma and progressive approach, Tagle is the archbishop of Manila and has strong support in Asia. Péter Erdő, from Hungary, drew attention from conservative sectors, but his ties to Viktor Orbán’s government may have limited his chances.
The College of Cardinals’ diversity, with electors from five continents, raised expectations for a non-European pope. However, proficiency in Italian and familiarity with the Roman Curia favored candidates like Parolin.
Vatican preparations
The conclave’s organization required months of planning. The Sistine Chapel was closed to the public on April 28 for the installation of benches, urns, and the stove where ballots are burned. The Domus Sanctae Marthae, the cardinals’ residence during the conclave, underwent adaptations, with sealed windows and blocked internet and phone signals.
The cardinals’ menu was carefully designed to reduce stress. Light dishes, such as soups, steamed vegetables, and lean meats, predominated, avoiding heavy meals like rich pasta sauces. Nutritionists consulted by the Vatican prioritized foods that ensured energy for the long voting sessions.
- Enhanced security: Daily electronic sweeps prevented leaks.
- Assigned lodging: Cardinals were allocated to Domus Sanctae Marthae and Santa Marta Vecchia.
- Oath of secrecy: Officials and staff swore secrecy on May 5.
- Opening Mass: Held at 10 a.m. on May 7, it marked the conclave’s official start.
History of swift conclaves
The election on the second day aligns with the trend of modern conclaves. In 2005, Joseph Ratzinger was chosen as Benedict XVI in two days, with four ballots. In 2013, Jorge Bergoglio became Francis in five ballots, also on the second day. The speed reflects Francis’ influence, having appointed most electors, facilitating consensus.
Longer conclaves, like the one in 1270, which lasted nearly three years, are distant history. The 1274 reform, introducing the lockdown, aimed to speed up the process. Today, rules ensure the conclave does not exceed 20 days, with strategic pauses after inconclusive ballots.
Advancing the conclave to May 7, instead of May 11, was possible because all electors were in Rome. The decision, made in the fifth general congregation, showed the College of Cardinals’ efficiency in 2025.
Role of the smoke
The smoke is one of the conclave’s most iconic elements. When there is no consensus, ballots are burned with chemicals producing black smoke. For white smoke, announcing the election, compounds like lactose and naphthalene are used, creating a clear visual effect.
The stove, installed in the Sistine Chapel, is operated by specialized technicians. After the final vote, the new pope’s ballots are burned, and white smoke is released. The system, refined over centuries, ensures the signal is visible even in adverse weather.
The white smoke on May 8 was met with enthusiasm. Social media videos captured the moment, though a false post, shared hours earlier, caused confusion. Vatican Media clarified that only the official smoke, at 5:45 p.m., confirmed the election.
Room of tears
After the election, the new pope retires to the Room of Tears, a small sacristy in the Sistine Chapel. There, he dons the papal vestments, available in three sizes, and chooses his pontifical name. The moment is marked by emotion, as the elected assumes the responsibility of leading 1.4 billion Catholics.
The new pope’s name will be revealed by the cardinal protodeacon during the Habemus Papam. The tradition, dating back to the 11th century, involves the official announcement from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. The public expects the new pontiff to appear between 30 and 60 minutes after the white smoke.
Francis’ influence
Francis’ pontificate, from 2013 to 2025, shaped the current College of Cardinals. His appointments prioritized peripheral regions, such as Haiti, South Sudan, and Myanmar, increasing the representation of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Of the 135 initial cardinal electors, 108 were chosen by him, suggesting a lean toward continuing his pastoral vision.
Francis also reformed the Roman Curia, promoting greater transparency and inclusion. His decision to allow blessings for same-sex couples and open debates on women’s roles in the Church sparked divisions, influencing conclave discussions. Progressive cardinals, like Parolin, advocate for maintaining these policies.
Betting and speculation
Betting platforms, like the U.S.-based Polymarket, recorded significant activity around the conclave. Pietro Parolin led preferences, with $1.8 million wagered by the morning of May 8. Other names, like Pizzaballa and Tagle, also drew attention, but with smaller volumes.
In Italy, the Fantapapa game, created by anti-gambling activists, gained popularity. With 75,000 players, the initiative allows symbolic bets, with the prize being “eternal glory.” The practice reflects the cultural fascination with the papacy, even in a secular context.
- Polymarket: U.S. platform led conclave betting.
- Fantapapa: Italian game attracted 75,000 participants.
- Speculated names: Parolin, Pizzaballa, and Tagle dominated predictions.
College of Cardinals’ diversity
The 2025 conclave was the most diverse in history, with cardinals from 71 countries. The presence of 23 Asian electors, led by figures like Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi from Japan, highlighted Asia’s growing influence. African cardinals, such as Peter Turkson from Ghana, also carried weight in discussions.
Latin American representation, with names like Gregorio Rosa Chávez from El Salvador, reinforced the push for a pope sensitive to peripheral issues. Europe, with 53 electors, retained influence, but the divide between conservatives and progressives marked negotiations.
The absence of two cardinals, Antonio Cañizares Llovera from Spain and John Njue from Kenya, due to health reasons, reduced the number of electors to 133. Giovanni Angelo Becciu’s decision not to participate, respecting Francis’ wishes, was also noted.
Next steps
After the Habemus Papam announcement, the new pope will make his first appearance on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. He will deliver the Urbi et Orbi blessing and address the faithful. The official inauguration, marked by a Mass in St. Peter’s Cathedral, will occur in the following days.
The new pontiff will assume leadership of the Church amid challenges, including debates on inclusion, clerical abuse, and evangelization in a secularized world. The choice of his pontifical name and his first actions will be closely watched by Catholics and non-Catholics alike.
The Vatican will keep St. Peter’s Square open for pilgrims, with screens broadcasting the ceremony. The Swiss Guard and Gendarmerie will continue to reinforce security, while accredited journalists cover the event from designated areas.
