Lucas Paquetá, midfielder for West Ham and the Brazilian national team, faces a decisive moment in his career this Friday, July 25, 2025, with the announcement of the Football Association (FA) verdict on accusations of manipulating betting in Premier League games. The player is under investigation for allegedly forcing yellow cards in four matches between November 2022 and August 2023, aiming to influence the betting market to benefit third parties. The decision, which could result in a lifetime ban from football, comes after a trial concluded in June, with developments that impacted million-dollar negotiations and the athlete’s trajectory. The case, centered on suspicious bets traced to Paquetá Island in Rio de Janeiro, keeps the player and the London club under intense anticipation.
The process against Paquetá gained prominence after identifying abnormal betting patterns on yellow cards received by the player. The investigation, started in 2023, revealed that about 60 bets, many originating from Paquetá Island, were placed at specific moments in four West Ham games. The case also sparked debates in Brazil, with the CPI on Betting investigating possible connections, including the player’s uncle, Bruno Tolentino.
- Games under investigation: Leicester (11/12/2022), Aston Villa (03/12/2023), Leeds (05/21/2023), and Bournemouth (08/12/2023).
- Main accusations: Intentionally forcing yellow cards to manipulate the betting market.
- Punishment at stake: Suspension from six months to permanent ban, according to FA rules.
- Financial impact: Cancellation of a 80 million euro transfer to Manchester City.
The player, who denies all accusations, stated he is fully cooperating with the investigations, providing information and even his phone to English authorities. The delay in announcing the verdict, postponed since June, drew criticism from West Ham, which faces financial losses and uncertainties about the future of its number 10.
Origin of the accusations
The investigation against Lucas Paquetá began in August 2023, after the FA detected an unusual volume of bets related to a yellow card received by the player in the match against Bournemouth, at the start of the 2023/2024 season. The incident, which occurred in stoppage time, involved an aerial challenge where Paquetá took an elbow to the face from an opponent, resulting in the warning. The analysis showed that many of these bets originated from Paquetá Island in Rio de Janeiro, where the player was born, raising suspicions of coordinated manipulation.
The case expanded to include three other games from the 2022/2023 season. In each of them, Paquetá received yellow cards for faults considered avoidable, such as tackles from behind or incidents in moments without significant tactical pressure. The FA alleges that the player violated Rule E5.1, which prohibits conduct aimed at influencing the progress of matches for betting purposes. Additionally, Paquetá faces two additional charges for alleged obstruction, after discarding a spare phone during the investigative process.
Lucas Paqueta and West Ham will find out the verdict of his FA tribunal hearing today (Friday 25 July) pic.twitter.com/JEDQhMOsvR
— West Ham Football (@westhamfootball) July 24, 2025
Details of the investigated games
The four games under FA scrutiny involve specific incidents that led to yellow cards for Paquetá. In the clash against Leicester, on November 12, 2022, the midfielder committed two consecutive fouls, hitting Boubakary Soumaré and Dennis Praet, at 15 minutes into the second half. Against Aston Villa, in March 2023, a tackle from behind on John McGinn, in the center circle, resulted in the warning. In the game against Leeds, in May 2023, Paquetá brought down Crysencio Summerville, interrupting a counterattack. Finally, the card against Bournemouth, in August 2023, came after an aerial dispute in stoppage time.
- Leicester (0 x 2 West Ham): Double tackle in the second half, without direct ball involvement.
- Aston Villa (1 x 1 West Ham): Tactical foul in midfield, considered unnecessary.
- Leeds (3 x 1 West Ham): Counterattack interruption with a foul from behind.
- Bournemouth (1 x 1 West Ham): Elbow in aerial dispute in the final minutes.
These incidents, according to the FA, form a pattern that suggests deliberate intent to receive warnings, benefiting bettors who profited from the bets on cards.
Repercussion at West Ham
The impact of the case on West Ham goes beyond on-field performance. The investigation halted a potential transfer of Paquetá to Manchester City in 2023, which could have yielded up to 80 million euros for the club. The negotiation, already in an advanced stage, was suspended due to uncertainties in the process. The London club, which relied on the funds to strengthen the squad, expressed frustration with the delay in resolving the case, especially since Paquetá remains a key piece in the team, with 33 games, five goals, and one assist in the current season.
West Ham’s board is closely monitoring the outcome, as a possible punishment could affect planning for upcoming seasons. Coach Julen Lopetegui, who has fielded Paquetá in recent matches, avoided commenting on the case, but internal sources indicate that the club seeks clarity to define strategies in the transfer market.
Investigation in Brazil
In Brazil, the Paquetá case drew attention from the CPI on Manipulation of Games and Sports Betting, chaired by Senator Jorge Kajuru. The commission is investigating possible connections between the suspicious bets and people close to the player, including his uncle, Bruno Tolentino. Bank records point to a transfer of 30 thousand reais from Tolentino to Luiz Henrique, former Real Betis player, in February 2023, raising suspicions of manipulation in games in Europe.
Paquetá was summoned to testify at the CPI, but the testimony, initially scheduled for October 2024, was postponed twice due to the player’s commitments in England. The Brazilian investigation seeks to clarify whether the bets placed on Paquetá Island have a direct relation to the player or to local betting networks.
Possible punishments
The FA rules provide for severe punishments for betting-related violations. Previous cases, such as Ivan Toney, suspended for eight months for betting on games, and Kynan Isaac, banned for ten years for manipulation, indicate that Paquetá could face from a six-month suspension to a lifetime ban. The FA, according to The Guardian newspaper, requests the player’s permanent exclusion from football, which, if applied, would be extended globally by FIFA.
- Minimum suspension: Six months, with an additional fine.
- Maximum punishment: Lifetime ban, without the possibility of playing professionally.
- Mitigating factors: Cooperation with the investigation may reduce the penalty.
- Appeal: Paquetá can appeal to the FA and, subsequently, to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS).
The severity of the accusations, especially the claim of intentional manipulation, makes the case one of the most complex ever judged by the FA.
Paquetá’s reaction
Since the beginning of the accusations, Lucas Paquetá denies any involvement in betting manipulation. In a statement on social media, the player expressed surprise and indignation, stating he has collaborated fully with the authorities. He handed over his phone for analysis in 2023, but the decision to discard a spare device generated new obstruction charges, complicating his defense.
Paquetá also highlighted the personal impact of the case, mentioning inaccurate reports that, according to him, attempt to undermine his position. The player’s defense argues that there is no direct evidence of manipulation and that the bets may have been placed by third parties without his knowledge. One point raised is that, in the game against Bournemouth, Paquetá asked not to be fielded, due to negotiations with Manchester City, which could weaken the thesis of intentional manipulation.
Connection with Paquetá Island
Paquetá Island, in Guanabara Bay, has become a central element in the case. With about four thousand inhabitants, the place is known for its tranquility and pride in the player, who grew up in the region. However, the volume of bets originating from the island, especially on Paquetá’s yellow cards, caught the authorities’ attention. A bet of just 7 pounds (about 46 reais) was recorded, but the repetitive pattern raised suspicions.
Residents interviewed by portals like UOL deny knowledge of local bets and defend the player’s innocence. The local community, according to reports, sees the case as an injustice against one of the island’s greatest idols, but investigations continue to explore possible betting networks in the region.
Similar cases in the Premier League
English football has a rigorous history in combating betting manipulations. In addition to Ivan Toney, suspended for betting against his own team, other cases have marked the league. Bradley Wood, from Lincoln City, was banned for six years in 2018 for forcing yellow cards, while Kieran Trippier, from Newcastle, received a ten-week suspension in 2020 for sharing information about his transfer.
These precedents reinforce the seriousness with which the FA handles betting violations, especially when there is evidence of direct manipulation. In Paquetá’s case, the combination of concentrated bets and alleged obstruction may aggravate the punishment, if guilt is confirmed.
Expectation for the verdict
The FA’s decision, expected for this Friday, will be a milestone in Paquetá’s career. Sources close to West Ham, cited by the Claret and Hugh portal, indicate that the club awaits the outcome with anxiety, as the player’s future directly impacts the team’s planning. Keith Wyness, former Everton CEO, suggested in July that Paquetá could be acquitted, but the lack of an official announcement maintains uncertainty.
The player, who was not called up for the Brazilian national team’s latest games due to an injury, remains active at West Ham, but under constant pressure. The verdict will determine whether he can continue his trajectory in European football or if he will face the premature end of a promising career.
