The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose 2% on Friday (3), reaching US$ 123,261, close to its all-time high of US$ 124,514, recorded on August 14. The movement comes amid the partial U.S. government shutdown, which began on Wednesday (1), and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The rise reflects increased appetite for risk assets and a search for stores of value in a scenario of fiscal uncertainty.
In 2025, Bitcoin has already gained over 30%, with an estimated market value of US$ 2.45 trillion.
Other cryptocurrencies are also following the trend. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is trading near its all-time high, quoted at US$ 4,545.
- Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled US$ 2.57 billion in September.
- Altcoins like Solana and Binance Coin saw significant gains.
- Bitcoin’s market dominance fell to 56.7% last month.
Technical market movement
Bitcoin’s price moved from a low of US$ 108,631 on September 25 to US$ 119,456, a 9.96% gain. The technical resistance is at US$ 124,474. Short- and medium-term supports are at US$ 113,300 and US$ 108,000, according to analysts.
Macroeconomic scenario
The weakening U.S. dollar is boosting the crypto market. Expectations of preemptive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve create a favorable environment. Global short-term liquidity also supports the rise in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The U.S. fiscal impasse, with the shutdown, reinforces demand for assets like Bitcoin. The rising price of gold, the primary store of value, also supports Bitcoin’s upward trend.
Capital rotation in the market
September saw a notable capital rotation, with flows shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins. The Altcoin Season index hit a record 80%, signaling strong performance by alternative coins. Assets like Solana, Binance Coin, and Ethereum posted significant gains.
Rising institutional interest
Bitcoin ETFs received net inflows of US$ 2.57 billion in September, showing strong institutional interest. Analysts project Bitcoin could reach US$ 140,000 by the end of 2025. Confidence in cryptocurrencies as a digital store of value continues to grow among investors.
Outlook for October
October, known as “Uptober” in the crypto market, historically sees gains. The combination of fiscal uncertainty and expansionary monetary policies favors Bitcoin.
