Ibovespa, the main index on the Brazilian stock exchange, reached a new historic record this Tuesday (11), advancing 1.81% and reaching 158,065 points at around 11:30 am. At the same time, the commercial dollar registered a drop of 0.67%, trading at R$5.2712. The appreciation of the index reflects investors’ optimism with the Copom minutes, which reinforced the maintenance of the Selic rate at 15%, and the October IPCA, which slowed to 0.09%, the lowest rate in 27 years. On the international scene, the possible resolution of the US government shutdown, which has already lasted 42 days, also contributed to the positive performance.
The financial market closely followed domestic indicators, with emphasis on official inflation. The IPCA, released by IBGE, showed a significant slowdown in relation to September, when it registered 0.48%. The drop in electricity and other sectors, such as housing, influenced the result.
In addition, the Copom minutes brought greater confidence to the market by indicating that the current monetary policy is sufficient to contain inflation. The document highlighted the resilience of the labor market and strong demand as factors that still put pressure on prices.
- Domestic factors: low IPCA and Copom minutes signal economic stability.
- Global scenario: Expectations of an agreement in the USA boost global stock markets.
- Ibovespa performance: 14th consecutive increase, with an accumulated gain of 29.08% in the year.
Copom minutes reinforce monetary policy
The Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15% per year, as decided at the last Copom meeting. The minutes, published this Tuesday, highlighted that the economic scenario is evolving as expected, with moderation in activity and a reduction in inflation expectations.
The document did not signal cuts in the Selic in the short term, projecting the maintenance of high interest rates for an extended period. The financial market estimates that the reduction cycle may only begin in 2026.
IPCA records lowest rate in 27 years
October’s IPCA, released by IBGE, increased just 0.09%, compared to 0.48% in September. The result reflects the 2.39% drop in electricity, driven by the change in the tariff flag.
Accumulated inflation for the year reached 3.73%, while in the last 12 months it was 4.68%. Sectors such as housing and communication registered deflation, while clothing increased by 0.51%.
Of the nine groups surveyed, three showed negative changes, highlighting the generalized deceleration in prices. The result was close to market projections, of 0.10%.
US shutdown nears end
The American government shutdown, which completed42 days, may be close to a resolution. The Senate approved a temporary funding proposal, with bipartisan support, which now goes to the House for a vote.
The text provides for the continuity of government operations until January 30, 2026. The measure also guarantees retroactive payment to public employees, such as air traffic controllers.
President Donald Trump declared support for the project, increasing the chances of approval. The shutdown has already caused significant impacts, such as the cancellation of more than a thousand flights on Tuesday.
Global stock markets soar
International markets also reacted positively to the news. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 1.54%, while the Nasdaq advanced 2.27%, driven by technology stocks.
In Europe, indices such as the STOXX 600 and the DAX registered gains of 1.38% and 1.7%, respectively. In Asia, the Nikkei rose 1.26%, and the Kospi, in Seoul, rose 3.02%.
Dollar in cumulative decline
The commercial dollar accumulated a drop of 0.55% in the week and 1.36% in the month. During the year, the devaluation of the American currency has already reached 14.12%, favored by the appreciation of the real.
Domestic economic scenario
The combination of low inflation, stable interest rates and a favorable exchange rate strengthens investor confidence. The Ibovespa accumulates an increase of 29.08% in 2025, while the real continues to appreciate.
The deceleration of the IPCA and the Central Bank’s signal that the Selic will remain at 15% reinforce the perception of stability. However, strong demand and a resilient job market remain points of attention for inflation control.
