The Banco Central Europeu (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the December 2025 meeting, at Frankfurt. The deposit rate remains at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the liquidity provision rate at 2.40%. Esta is the fourth consecutive maintenance, reflecting stability in inflation close to the 2% target.
The governing board, led by Christine Lagarde, adopted a data-dependent approach to future decisions. Macroeconomic projections indicate controlled inflation and more robust growth, driven by domestic demand.
Eurosistema experts revised upwards estimates for the euro zone’s Produto Interno Bruto (GDP). Para 2025, growth increases to 1.4%, against 1.2% previously predicted.
- For 2026, the projection rises to 1.2%.
- For 2027, it reaches 1.4%.
- For 2028, it remains at 1.4%.
This revision reflects economic resilience despite global uncertainties such as trade tensions.
Revised inflation projections
Global inflation in the euro zone is expected to stand at 2.1% in 2025, with a gradual decline in the following years. The new estimates point to 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and a return to 2% in 2028.
Underlying inflation, excluding energy and food, is projected at 2.4% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026. The upward revision for 2026 is due to the slower decline in services prices.
The ECB reinforces its commitment to stabilizing inflation within the medium-term objective of 2%. The unanimous decision reflects confidence in the current direction of monetary policy.
Divergence in credit markets
Although the ECB’s key rates remain stable, the costs of new mutuals diverge. Nos mutually variable, monthly rates have registered an average reduction of around 50 euros since the beginning of 2025, benefiting from previous decreases.
In fixed rate contracts, indicators such as the IRS rose, increasing rates offered on new financing. Este movement reflects market expectations about future developments in interest rates and bond yields.
Banks adjust conditions based on factors such as risk and high demand for fixed options. The transmission of monetary policy occurs gradually in these segments.
Eurozone economic outlook
The euro zone economy demonstrates resilience, with growth in the third quarter higher than expected. Domestic demand emerges as the main driver, supported by consumption and investment.
Despite external uncertainties, such as trade tariffs, the ECB maintains a positive assessment. Inflation has been around 2% for months, with services contributing to stability.
The board of directors assesses balanced risks, without discussing cuts or increases at the meeting. The meeting-by-meeting approach allows for flexibility in the face of new data.
Mutui dynamics in Europa
The housing credit market reflects stability in policy rates, but with adjustments to specific products. Variable mutuals benefit directly from the pause, maintaining attractive rates.
Fixed options face upward pressure due to movements in rate swaps. Em Itália and other countries, slight increases in APR for new contracts are observed.
Consumers mostly prefer fixed rate to protect against volatility. Esta preference influences bank offers and applied spreads.
Future approach to monetary policy
The ECB adopts a data-dependent strategy, without commitment to pre-defined trajectories. Decisions are based on inflation developments, associated risks and policy transmission.
Christine Lagarde emphasizes that all options remain open for 2026. Unanimity in maintenance reflects consensus on an adequate current position.
The focus remains on ensuring a sustainable return of inflation to the target. Economic resilience allows maintenance without immediate changes.
Recent evolution of rates
Since June 2025, the ECB began a pause after a cycle of cuts that reduced rates from 4% to 2%. Esta stabilization follows inflation close to the objective.
The successive upward revisions to growth projections signal recovered confidence. The euro zone exceeds expectations despite global challenges.
Wage and service indicators are closely monitored to avoid persistent pressures.
