Market analysts made significant adjustments to recommendations for stocks linked to artificial intelligence and semiconductors at the beginning of 2026. Bernstein raised ASML’s rating to outperform and positioned it as the main choice among European companies in the sector for the year. At the same time, institutions like BMO and Oppenheimer downgraded Adobe due to a lack of clear catalysts and growing competition.
Demand for advanced lithography technologies drives optimism for ASML. The company directly benefits from increased investment in AI chips, especially in more complex production nodes. Esses movements reflect expectations of acceleration in the semiconductor cycle from 2026 onwards.
Other institutions maintain a cautious outlook for creative software companies. Adobe faces pressure from alternative AI-based tools gaining ground among smaller users.
- ASML records projected growth of 18% per year in profits between 2025 and 2027.
- Analysts point to undervaluation in the DRAM memory market.
- Capacity expansion in advanced logic supports sales of EUV equipment.
ASML upgrade reflects acceleration in memory and logic
Bernstein justified raising ASML’s target price to €1,300 from the previous €800. The movement considers acceleration in investments in DRAM memory and firm demand for advanced logic.
Three major DRAM producers plan to add up to 250,000 wafers per month in capacity during 2026. The transition to more advanced nodes increases lithography intensity by up to 28%, directly benefiting the Dutch company’s EUV technology.
Projections indicate strong years for EUV equipment
Analysts predict that 2026 and 2027 will be periods of strong demand for ASML’s EUV systems. Expected earnings growth exceeds market consensus, supported by expansions in GPUs and AI accelerators.
The company positions itself as an essential supplier for foundries that serve large technology clients. The current valuation becomes more attractive given the prospects for an upward cycle in the sector.
Adobe downgrade points to lack of clear catalysts
BMO Capital Markets downgraded Adobe to market performance and reduced the target price to US$375. The institution highlights the absence of short-term drivers despite a reasonable valuation.
Competition intensifies in the creative software segment, especially among small businesses and freelancers. Ferramentas alternatives gain traction and put pressure on Creative Cloud’s repeat user base.
Competition in AI puts pressure on monetization of Adobe
Oppenheimer also adjusted the Adobe recommendation to perform, in line with the more cautious view. Analistas note that the monetization of AI resources is progressing gradually, with no immediate significant impact.
Sentiment for the applications software sector remains reserved for 2026. Instituições prefer names with stronger competitive positioning in cloud and sales.
Other adjustments involve cloud and e-commerce giants
The Bank of America highlighted Amazon, Google and Booking as well positioned in AI for large-caps. Demand for cloud capacity accelerates, with expected returns on investments made in previous years.
Google benefits from advances in models like Gemini and broad exposure in search and advertising. Booking may launch AI agent-based products for travel planning in 2026.
Alibaba faces target price cut due to domestic weakness
Morgan Stanley lowered Alibaba’s price target to $180, maintaining overweight. The adjustment reflects weakness in main e-commerce due to weak consumption in China.
The company’s cloud division shows accelerated growth with AI workloads. Margens remain stable, but losses in other segments put pressure on consolidated results.
Geopolitical risks affect chip supply chain
Experts warn of uncertainties surrounding Taiwan and possible impacts on global AI trade. Tensões in the region could disrupt supplies of advanced semiconductors.
TSMC, the world’s leading foundry, represents a critical point in the production of chips for artificial intelligence applications. Qualquer interruption would affect the entire technological ecosystem.
Demand for advanced chips sustains positive cycle
Capacity expansion on 3nm nodes directly addresses demand for GPUs and AI accelerators. Produtores prioritize manufacturability, increasing use of extreme ultraviolet lithography.
ASML consolidates its unique position as a supplier of high-performance EUV equipment. Upcycle in memory and logic creates solid foundation for revenue in 2026 and beyond.
Semiconductor market approaches trillion-dollar level
The semiconductor sector is on track for annual revenues approaching one trillion dollars in the coming years. Artificial intelligence remains the main driver of growth in advanced chips.
Equipment companies like ASML capture a significant portion of this expansion. Analistas see potential for additional upside in shares in the European segment.
Demand for advanced lithography technologies grows with transition to smaller nodes. Fabricantes of memory and logic increase investments to support AI applications at scale.
