China released demographic data showing a sharp drop in births during 2025. The country recorded 7.92 million babies born, a significant reduction from 2024’s 9.54 million.
Deaths exceeded births again, with 11.31 million deaths recorded in the period. The total population decreased by 3.39 million people, reaching approximately 1.405 billion inhabitants. The birth rate fell to 5.63 per thousand inhabitants, setting a new negative record.
The population decline occurs for the fourth consecutive year, despite government initiatives to reverse the trend. Especialistas point out that the aging of society is advancing rapidly, with the proportion of elderly people over 60 reaching 23% of the total population.
- Births in 2025: 7.92 million
- Deaths in 2025: 11.31 million
- Birth rate: 5.63 per thousand inhabitants
- Population reduction: 3.39 million people
Official data highlights a sharp drop in indicators
Bureau Nacional of Estatísticas of China presented the numbers this Monday, along with the economic balance for the year. The economy will grow 5% in 2025, but demographic challenges remain a long-term obstacle. The mortality rate rose to 8.04 per thousand inhabitants, reflecting the increase in the number of deaths.
Urbanization reached 68% of the population, an increase compared to the 43% recorded in 2005. Esse movement concentrates more people in urban centers, where living costs influence family decisions. Jovens cite financial pressures as the main factor in postponing or avoiding family formation.
Incentive policies face resistance from the population
Chinese authorities have implemented several measures to stimulate births in recent years. Entre they are cash subsidies and housing benefits for couples with children. Essas actions did not produce the expected increase in the fertility rate.
The government promoted a new vision of marriage and motherhood, with campaigns aimed at young people. Algumas regions have adopted approaches such as monitoring female reproductive health. Essas initiatives generated criticism and little support among the younger population.
A 13% tax on contraceptives took effect on January 1, 2026. The measure affected condoms and contraceptive medications, but did not significantly change usage habits. Cidadãos respondents say the costs of raising children outweigh any impact on the price of these items.
The aging of society advances with a record proportion of elderly people
The share of the population aged 60 or over reached 323 million people in 2025. Esse group represents 23% of the total, an increase of one percentage point compared to the previous year. The phenomenon requires adjustments in social security and public health systems.
The retirement age was gradually raised, reaching higher levels for men and women. Homens retire at age 63, while women in administrative positions at age 58 and in factories at age 55. Esses values remain among the lowest globally.
Projections indicate that the number of elderly people could reach 400 million by 2035. The working-age workforce is continually decreasing, putting pressure on the sustainability of public funds. Muitos young people are reluctant to contribute more to pensions due to current financial demands.
Local measures seek to reverse the trend of falling marriages
Marriages have registered a significant drop in recent years, serving as a leading indicator for births. Autoridades facilitated marriage registration anywhere in the country from May 2025. Essa change simplified the process and could generate a temporary increase in future indicators.
Some local governments have offered financial rewards to couple brokers. Organizadores of dating events report difficulty attracting participants, especially women. The majority of those attending show little intention of formalizing unions.
Drop in births reflects high breeding costs
Raising a child involves high expenses with education, housing and health in urban areas. The economic slowdown and the crisis in the real estate sector worsen this perception among young adults. Unemployment among recent graduates remains high, reducing family financial stability.
Monetary incentives tested in other countries show limited effectiveness in increasing fertility. Especialistas in demography reinforce that structural factors weigh more than specific benefits. The total fertility rate places China among the lowest levels in the world.
Global comparison positions China in a challenging scenario
Countries face reductions in birth rates of different intensities. China sees a more pronounced decline due to a combination of past policies and current conditions. The rate of 5.63 per thousand inhabitants contrasts with higher regional averages.
The UN projects the trend of population shrinkage to continue in the coming decades. Outras Asian nations observe similar patterns, but at varying paces. The Chinese experience serves as a reference for international demographic analyses.
Adjustments to family policy have occurred in recent stages
The government eased birth restrictions from 2016, allowing two children per couple. In 2021, up to three children per family were authorized. Essas changes aimed to offset the effects of the one-child policy, in force for decades.
The demographic transition arrived earlier than predicted by the authorities. Sistemas of social support require reforms to keep up with accelerated aging. Déficts in healthcare financing and pensions require long-term solutions.
Complementary indicators reinforce structural trend
The natural population growth rate was negative at 2.41 per thousand inhabitants. Esse balance reflects the difference between births and deaths in the period. The age structure of society changes irreversibly without effective interventions.
- Proportion of elderly people: 23% of the total population
- Urbanization: 68% in 2025
- Economic growth: 5% in the year
- Mortality rate: 8.04 per thousand inhabitants
China maintains its position as the second most populous nation on the planet. Índia has surpassed the Asian country in absolute numbers in recent years. Mudanças demographic factors influence national strategic planning in multiple areas.
