Brazil anticipates reaching an all-time high in cotton exports during the 2025/26 marketing year. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers (Abrapa) forecasts shipments of 3.2 million metric tons, marking a substantial 13% increase from the previous 2024/25 season. This ambitious projection solidifies Brazil’s position as a dominant global supplier, driven by robust international demand.
A significant portion of this growth continues to stem from strong trade relations with China. The Asian nation remains the primary destination for Brazilian cotton, having absorbed 32% of Brazil’s total sales in the last marketing year. This consistent demand underpins Brazil’s strategic focus on the Asian market, ensuring sustained export volumes.
Projected export surge for the 2025/26 season
The 2025/26 marketing year, which officially commenced in July 2025, is poised to set a new benchmark for Brazilian cotton exports. Abrapa’s projection of 3.2 million tons represents a remarkable leap in capacity and market penetration, surpassing previous records and reinforcing the country’s influence in global commodity trade.
This substantial increase in projected volume, 13% higher than the 2024/25 figures, is a testament to Brazil’s expanding agricultural infrastructure and efficient supply chain. Maintaining China as a key trading partner ensures a stable foundation for these record-breaking aspirations, even as Brazil explores diversification into other international markets.
2025 export performance and global leadership
Brazil showcased impressive export capabilities in 2025, laying a strong foundation for future growth. In December 2025 alone, the country shipped a record 452,500 metric tons of cotton, generating revenues of $707.4 million. This monthly performance represented a notable 28.2% increase compared to December 2024, demonstrating consistent upward momentum.
Throughout the entire calendar year 2025, Brazil successfully exported 2.8 million metric tons of cotton, definitively establishing itself as the world’s leading exporter of the fiber. This accomplishment underscores the sector’s operational efficiency and its ability to meet escalating global demand, especially from major textile industries. The robust figures from 2025 set an optimistic precedent for the ambitious targets outlined for the subsequent marketing year.
Cultivation outlook and market dynamics
The 2025/26 cotton sowing season is currently underway, with planting progressing steadily across key agricultural regions. Farmers in Mato Grosso, for instance, have shown consistent advancement due to an expedited soybean harvest, which clears fields earlier for subsequent cotton cultivation. Despite the positive start to sowing, the national planted area for cotton is expected to see a 5.5% reduction this season, totaling approximately 2.05 million hectares.
This acreage adjustment primarily reflects increased production costs experienced by farmers and a corresponding decline in producer profitability. Throughout 2025, the price of cotton on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), a critical international benchmark, fell by 8%, directly impacting financial returns for growers. Consequently, productivity estimates for the current season are also projected to decrease by 4.7%, settling at 1,866 kilograms of lint per hectare, signaling a more conservative approach by producers amidst market pressures.
Production forecasts and rising inventories
Considering the reduced planted area and anticipated lower productivity, Brazil’s total cotton production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 3.83 million metric tons. This figure represents a 9.9% decrease when compared to the preceding agricultural cycle, indicating a moderated output amidst challenging economic conditions for farmers.
Despite the projected dip in production, Brazil’s final cotton inventories are expected to remain robust. Forecasts for July 2026 indicate stockpiles of 835,000 metric tons, a substantial 65% increase over the inventory levels at the close of the previous season. This significant rise in carryover stocks ensures a plentiful supply in the market, providing a buffer against potential demand fluctuations and contributing to Brazil’s reliability as a global supplier.
Review of the 2024/25 agricultural cycle
The previous 2024/25 season provided a strong foundation for Brazil’s current export standing, characterized by notable growth. Abrapa revised its production estimate for the Brazilian harvest during December 2025, bringing the total to 4.25 million metric tons. This represented a substantial 14.8% increase over the 2023/2024 cycle.
The expansion in output was largely driven by a significant enlargement of the cultivated area. Nationally, the area planted with cotton saw an 11.7% increase, reaching 2.171 million hectares in comparison to the 2023/2024 season. These figures highlight a period of robust growth and investment in the cotton sector, contributing to the ample supply seen in the market.
Processing progress and regional contributions
The beneficiation process for the 2024/25 cotton harvest is nearing its completion across Brazil. By January 8, 2026, approximately 95% of the total volume had been successfully processed in the country’s ginning facilities.
Remaining processing efforts are concentrated in specific regions:
* Maranhão (9%)
* Mato Grosso (5.85%)
* Bahia (2%)
* Minas Gerais (1%)
These areas are actively working to finalize the last portions of the harvest, ensuring the full volume is prepared for domestic use or international export.
