Bitcoin trades above US$63 thousand this month of June 2026. Many investors who already own the asset are evaluating whether to maintain their positions or take part of the profits. On-chain indicators and the behavior of long-term holders provide concrete elements for this analysis.
The MVRV, which compares the market value with the average acquisition price of bitcoins in circulation, currently registers 1.8. Historical levels above 3.5 or 4.0 have coincided with previous cycle tops. The percentage of bitcoins that have been immobile for more than a year reaches 68%, according to data from Glassnode. At previous peak times, this metric dropped to 40% or less with the sale of old holders.
On-chain data reveals holder behavior
On-chain analysis offers direct insight into the actions of market participants. Unlike technical indicators based only on price and volume, this data shows what is happening on the blockchain.
The high percentage of immobile currencies signals that most long-term investors remain comfortable. Companies like Strategy continued to acquire significant volumes last week, with additional purchases of US$100 million reported.
On the institutional side, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than $90 billion in assets under management. Coinbase notes that its institutional clients maintain or increase positions even at times of lower prices.
- Percentage of bitcoins immobile for more than a year: 68%
- Current MVRV: 1.8
- Net accumulation in American ETFs: more than US$90 billion
- Behavior of regulated funds in Brazil: positive net inflow in the last three months
Institutions change the profile of the current cycle
The 2026 cycle features greater participation from institutional investors compared to previous periods. Pension funds, family offices and traditional managers use ETFs as their main exposure vehicle.
In Brazil, funds regulated by the CVM with exposure to Bitcoin recorded an increase in net funding. This trend reflects a change in local investor approach, which prioritizes strategic allocation over expectations of quick gains.
This sustained entry contrasts with typical retail behavior, which tends to buy in moments of euphoria and sell in corrections.
Comparison with previous cycles after halving
The last halving occurred in April 2024. The biggest upward movements in past cycles were concentrated between 12 and 18 months after the event.
We are currently 14 months post-halving. In 2013, the peak came about 12 months after the halving. In 2017 and 2021, the pattern was repeated within the same window, with peaks in equivalent periods.
If history holds, the most intense point of the current cycle could still unfold in the coming quarters. Corrections of 20% to 30% have occurred several times within bull cycles and have been followed by recoveries.
Risks of holding or selling at the current time
Holding Bitcoin exposes the investor to the possibility of strong corrections in the next bear market. Previous cycles have seen declines of 60% to 80% after peaks.
Selling prematurely generates opportunity costs. Examples from past cycles show that early exits at levels considered high resulted in a loss of significant upside.
Many experienced investors adopt partial realization by price ranges. This approach allows you to capitalize on profits without completely abandoning the position.
Macroeconomic context influences the decision
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has a relevant impact. The market prices interest cuts until the end of 2026, which historically favors risky assets.
In Brazil, the high Selic rate makes fixed income competitive. Any decision about Bitcoin needs to consider this opportunity cost.
Recent geopolitical events, such as tensions in the Middle East, tested the asset’s resilience, which maintained a store of value behavior in times of uncertainty.
Data-driven strategy and individual horizon
On-chain indicators place the market in late accumulation phase or early distribution start in June 2026. Classic top signals do not appear.
The central question is not limited to keeping or selling everything. The position size in relation to total assets, the time horizon and volatility tolerance define the appropriate approach for each profile.
Discipline in executing the chosen strategy weighs more than perfect timing of entry or exit
