Elena Rybakina, the ninth seed at the WTA Cincinnati Open, takes on Elise Mertens, the 19th seed, in the third round on August 12, 2025, at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio. The match, part of the WTA 1000 event, marks their seventh career meeting, with Rybakina dominating the head-to-head 5-1, including a win in Cincinnati in 2021. The Kazakh aims to surpass her best result in the tournament, the quarterfinals, while Mertens hopes to repeat her 2020 semifinal run. Played on hard courts, where Rybakina has won all prior encounters against the Belgian, the match carries high stakes. Rybakina brings consistency, while Mertens seeks an upset.
The Kazakh has had a solid 2025, with 38 wins in 53 matches, including 22 on hard courts. Her recent tournament performance included a resilient win over Renata Zarazua, recovering from a lost set. Mertens also needed three sets to defeat qualifier Clervie Ngounoue in the first round, showcasing her tenacity. The Belgian has 30 wins in 2025, with titles in Singapore and Hertogenbosch, but struggles against top-10 opponents.
- Key highlights of the matchup:
- Rybakina leads the head-to-head with five wins in six matches.
- The Kazakh has won all hard-court matches against Mertens.
- Mertens seeks her first win over Rybakina since 2021.
Recent form of the players
Rybakina enters with strong momentum this season. Her title in Strasbourg in May ended a year-long title drought, and she reached the semifinals in Dubai, Washington, and Montreal. However, her Cincinnati record is uneven, with only two notable runs in five appearances, reaching the quarterfinals in 2022 and the third round in 2021. Against Zarazua, she hit 14 aces but committed seven double faults, signaling room for improvement. Her ability to recover after losing sets is a key strength, especially in longer matches.
Mertens has had a consistent season, with 30 wins and two titles in smaller tournaments. Her Cincinnati campaign began with a comeback against Ngounoue, taking 2 hours and 37 minutes to advance. Despite her hard-court proficiency, she has a 1-8 record against top-10 players in 2025. Her doubles experience, including a Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, bolsters her net play and baseline consistency, but her lack of power may be exploited by Rybakina.
Head-to-head history
Rybakina’s dominance in the head-to-head is a focal point. Since their first meeting in Shenzhen 2020, she has won five of six matches, including the last four in straight sets. In Cincinnati 2021, Rybakina defeated Mertens 6-3, 6-2, showcasing her serving and baseline strength. Mertens’ sole victory came in Madrid 2021 on clay, winning 7-6(4), 7-5, leveraging her defensive consistency.
- Detailed head-to-head:
- 2024, Roland Garros: Rybakina 6-4, 6-2 (clay).
- 2024, Brisbane: Rybakina 6-1, 6-0 (hard court).
- 2023, Miami: Rybakina 6-4, 6-3 (hard court).
- 2021, Cincinnati: Rybakina 6-3, 6-2 (hard court).
- 2021, Madrid: Mertens 7-6(4), 7-5 (clay).
Strengths and strategies
Rybakina’s aggressive style, with a powerful serve and deep groundstrokes, often disrupts opponents. Her 14 aces per match average in Cincinnati 2025 highlights her serving strength, though her 49% first-serve rate against Zarazua suggests precision needs work. She will likely aim to dominate points with heavy shots and approach the net strategically.
Mertens relies on consistency and versatility. Her doubles background makes her effective at volleys and point construction, but her lack of power can be a liability against Rybakina. The Belgian will need to vary spin and movement to disrupt Rybakina’s rhythm. Her 44% break point conversion against Ngounoue shows efficiency, but her defense will be tested.
- Strategic factors:
- Rybakina: powerful serve and aggressive shots to control points.
- Mertens: defensive consistency and volleys to mix up pace.
- Surface: hard court favors Rybakina’s style.
- Physical condition: both come off three-set matches, which may impact play.
Match expectations
Bookmakers favor Rybakina with average odds of 1.44, while Mertens stands at 2.75. The Kazakh’s 67% win probability reflects her head-to-head dominance and hard-court prowess. However, Mertens’ 2020 Cincinnati semifinal run shows her potential to upset. The Belgian will need an exceptional serving and defensive performance to overcome Rybakina, particularly given her top-10 struggles.
The prediction leans toward a Rybakina win, possibly in three sets, given Mertens’ competitiveness against top players. The Kazakh should use her power to dictate play, but Mertens could extend the match with her resilience. The clash promises intense rallies and high-quality tennis, making it a third-round highlight.
- Possible match scenarios:
- Rybakina wins in straight sets if she maintains serving consistency.
- Mertens could push to a third set with strong defense.
- Fatigue factor: long first-round matches may affect both players.
Tournament significance
The WTA Cincinnati Open, with a $5.15 million prize pool, is a key hard-court event and a US Open tune-up. For Rybakina, a deep run could solidify her top-10 ranking and boost her Grand Slam confidence. Mertens aims to reclaim a top-20 spot and repeat her 2020 success. The tournament’s expansion to 96 players in 2025 has heightened competition, making every win critical.
Rybakina has yet to reach the Cincinnati semifinals, and defeating Mertens could be a breakthrough. Mertens, with her tournament history, knows an upset could propel her campaign. Both players have clear motivations, promising a tightly contested match.
- Potential impacts:
- Rybakina: solidify top-10 status and gain US Open momentum.
- Mertens: return to top 20 and replicate 2020 run.
- Tournament: valuable points for WTA Finals qualification.