An upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, launched in January 2025, is on a collision trajectory with Lua and is expected to impact the lunar surface on August 5. The object, identified as 2025-010D, was responsible for taking two commercial missions into space and now represents an example of what experts call carelessness in the management of space debris. Segundo Bill Gray, from Projeto Plutão, the impact will occur close to the visible edge of Lua, in a region illuminated by Sol.
The upper stage was launched together with the commercial lunar module Blue Ghost 1, from the company Firefly, which performed the first successful commercial lunar landing on March 2, 2025, at Mare Crisium. The Blue Ghost mission set a record for the longest commercial operation on the lunar surface to date. Junto with the Firefly probe, the rocket also carried the Japanese lunar module HAKUTO-R M2 Resilience, which was lost 90 seconds before landing due to a failure in the laser rangefinder system.
Rastreamento since launch
Gray has been following the orbit of the debris since the launch of the mission, on January 15 last year. Ele uses Guide, an astronomy software widely used by professional and amateur astronomers to monitor asteroids, comets and objects close to Terra. The orbit of the upper stage underwent small variations throughout the period, leading to the precise calculation of the impact date.
“We’ve been tracking it since launch. The orbit has changed a bit over the last year, and it’s now heading towards a lunar impact,” Gray told Space.com. Projeto Plutão released a page with technical data and visualizations about the upper stage of Falcon 9, facilitating monitoring by the international scientific community.
Visibilidade and comparison with precedents
Segundo Gray, the impact would have a good chance of being visible from Terra, especially since it will occur near the edge of Lua on the side illuminated by Sol. Naquele moment, more than half of the natural satellite will be illuminated. Gray intends to observe the event with a small telescope from Maine, although it recognizes that expectations are not very high regarding the brightness of the impact.
NASA already carried out a similar experiment in 2009 with the LCROSS mission, which was purposely directed to collide with Lua on October 9 of that year. The impact occurred on the unilluminated side of the lunar surface, and nothing was visually observed of the event, despite initial expectations. The Centauro stage of the LCROSS mission was in very similar conditions to the Falcon 9 rocket that will reach Lua in August.
Risco and security considerations
Gray made it clear that the impact poses no immediate danger to anyone on Terra or in orbit. Entretanto, the event illustrates what he describes as “a certain carelessness about how remaining space equipment is disposed of.” The magnitude of risk to future lunar operations will depend on the object’s location relative to other rovers.
The likelihood that fragments generated by the impact will hit a spacecraft in lunar orbit is considered small by experts. Contudo, Gray highlighted that spacecraft operators should check whether their trajectories would pass close to the point of impact and consider orbital adjustments if necessary. The expert also mentioned that Chinese exploration vehicles, which operate on Lua, are a reasonable distance from the predicted collision location.
Perspectivas futures and human presence
Gray has raised more significant concerns about the future, especially with increasing human activity on Lua. “In a few years, things could be different,” he commented, referring to the presence of astronauts walking on the lunar surface. The arrival of humans would considerably increase the risks associated with impacts from space debris.
Para operators who plan to send upper stages into high lunar orbits, Gray recommends careful thought about trajectories. An upper stage launched today could become a serious threat years later, depending on orbital variations and the location of future manned or robotic missions. Proper management of space debris therefore becomes a critical issue with the rise of commercial and government lunar exploration in the coming years.