Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money”, identified 3 short-term catalysts that could justify investing in SpaceX’s IPO, scheduled for June 12. The analyst’s caveat is significant: the company is being valued at $2 trillion, a multiple that Cramer considers unsustainable given current fundamentals.
“Just looking at the numbers, it’s very difficult to justify a $2 trillion valuation for SpaceX,” Cramer said. With annual revenue of less than US$20 billion and significant losses in artificial intelligence infrastructure and the Starship program, the company would be trading at approximately 100 times its revenue in the last 12 months.
Starship as the first growth spurt
The Starship reusable rocket represents the first catalyst identified by Cramer. SpaceX completed its 12th test last Friday, with no cargo or passengers on board. In the IPO prospectus released, the company projects that Starship will deliver payloads in the second half of 2026.
“If SpaceX actually manages to meet this deadline, it will be a huge boon for its slower-paced space division,” the analyst said. The operational success of the next-generation rocket could accelerate revenue for the company’s space services division.
Acordo with Anthropic transforms AI division
The second catalyst involves the computing partnership between SpaceX and startup Anthropic. Sob the contract, Anthropic will pay approximately $1.25 billion monthly through 2029 to lease computing capacity from SpaceX data centers in Memphis.
Cramer highlighted the transformative impact of this partnership. The AI division generated just $3.2 billion in revenue the previous year, but the deal could add nearly $15 billion in annual revenue immediately. “The deal with Anthropic alone drastically changes the economics of the AI division, potentially transforming it from a bottomless pit into a source of income,” he said.
Cursor: potential acquisition and expansion of xAI
The third catalyst involves the collaboration with Cursor, an AI programming startup. The partnership will combine Cursor programming tools with SpaceX computing infrastructure to enhance products like Grok and develop new enterprise offerings.
SpaceX has an option to acquire Cursor in 2025 for a value of US$60 billion. Cramer argued that a potential purchase would “boost xAI’s status among leading AI labs” by strengthening the competitive position of the Musk group’s artificial intelligence division.
Advertência on Valuation and Entry Timing
Apesar of the 3 catalysts, Cramer recommended that investors maintain discipline and evaluate SpaceX’s fundamentals before making decisions. Analysis points include:
- Current Avaliação of US$ 2 trillion in relation to real revenue
- Delivery times Viabilidade (Starship in H2 2026)
- Potencial monetization of agreements with Anthropic and Cursor
- Histórico of company fulfillment of promises
“Historically, it rarely pays to bet against Elon Musk, but at the same time, SpaceX is far from perfect and the stock will almost certainly be expensive,” warned Cramer. Ele suggested that even interested investors may not purchase the shares immediately after the launch, depending on the price stated in the offering.
Contexto from prospectus and market expectations
The IPO prospectus released by SpaceX the previous week revealed a company in transition. Enquanto space services division maintains solid revenues, massive investments in Starship and computing capacity have created pressure on operating results. The company projects that the three catalysts identified by Cramer could reverse this scenario in 12 to 24 months.
The analyst acknowledged that the potential for future growth exists, but emphasized that entry into the IPO must be calculated. The final price of the offer, not yet disclosed, will be decisive for the attractiveness of the investment based on the criteria that Cramer established for a rational assessment of the company.