Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling party has secured a decisive victory in Ethiopia’s recent general election, solidifying his political power with an overwhelming parliamentary majority. This outcome arrives amidst a backdrop of severe internal conflict, allegations of political repression, and a noticeable lack of participation from key opposition factions, casting a long shadow over the nation’s stability.
The Prosperity Party, led by Abiy, claimed 438 out of 501 declared seats, paving the way for the Prime Minister to be sworn in for another term early next October. For his supporters, this result reinforces confidence in his leadership and the continuation of economic growth initiatives that have marked his tenure.
However, many observers and citizens express deep apprehension that the country’s formidable internal divisions and security challenges are poised to intensify under Abiy’s continued leadership. Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous nation, faces a complex web of ethnic and regional grievances that threaten its fragile peace.
Abiy Ahmed ascended to power in 2018 amid widespread anti-government protests, initially earning accolades for his commitment to national reconciliation. His early reforms, however, alienated politicians from the northern Tigray region, who had historically held significant sway in the federal government for over two decades.
Rising Insurgencies and Electoral Disruptions
Just a year after taking office, Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, primarily for his pivotal role in ending a prolonged border conflict with neighboring Eritrea. Yet, this international recognition starkly contrasts with the growing internal unrest now plaguing Ethiopia, as security experts increasingly warn of a potential return to widespread warfare.
Violent and deadly insurgencies persist fiercely across the Amhara and Oromia regions, showing no signs of abatement. These conflicts directly impacted the electoral process, with 143 polling stations unable to open in these two most populous regions due to grave safety concerns stemming from armed groups actively fighting the government.
In Amhara, the Fano militias, and in Oromia, the proscribed Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), both advocate for greater regional autonomy. These groups vehemently rejected both the electoral process and its subsequent results, underscoring the deep-seated opposition to the central government’s authority.
The situation in Tigray remains particularly volatile, a region still grappling with the aftermath of a brutal two-year civil war that concluded in late 2022. The entire region, home to six million inhabitants and representing 38 constituencies, was completely excluded from the recent poll, exacerbating fears that renewed fighting could erupt at any moment.
Shifting Alliances and Regional Volatility
Tigray’s strategic location, bordering Eritrea, adds another layer of complexity to the escalating tensions. During the civil war, Eritrean troops allied with Ethiopian government forces, facing accusations of widespread atrocities against Tigrayan civilians, which Addis Ababa and Asmara denied. However, since the conflict’s official end, relations between the Ethiopian capital and Eritrea have sharply deteriorated, marking a dramatic shift in regional dynamics.
Eritrea, a nation with an extensive 1,350-kilometer coastline, now openly accuses landlocked Ethiopia of harboring imperial ambitions. Prime Minister Abiy has, over the past three years, repeatedly voiced his country’s imperative need to regain access to a Red Sea port—a crucial economic and strategic asset lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1993.
In a surprising reversal, Asmara has recently forged an alliance with Tigray’s leadership, suggesting a significant geopolitical realignment in the Horn of Africa. Should any new conflict ignite, it is now widely anticipated that Eritrea would likely align itself with Tigrayan forces, and vice-versa, fundamentally altering the regional power balance and conflict calculus.
Ethiopia’s government has also faced serious accusations of involvement in the ongoing civil war in Sudan, a country that shares borders with both Ethiopia and Eritrea. Multiple reports have alleged that Addis Ababa has provided support to one of Sudan’s warring factions, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), an accusation that Ethiopia has consistently denied.
Conversely, Eritrea and Tigrayan forces have long been understood to maintain close ties with the Sudanese military, which is currently locked in conflict with the RSF. This intricate web of alliances and accusations creates a highly volatile situation, a “toxic cocktail” that analysts fear could easily spill over and destabilize the broader region, with Prime Minister Abiy appearing disinclined to assume a peacemaker role.
A Fragile Peace Agreement Under Strain
The animosity between Abiy’s administration and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant political entity in the region, was ostensibly resolved by a peace agreement signed in November 2022. This accord was meant to usher in an era of reconciliation and stability after a devastating conflict.
However, both sides now routinely accuse each other of violating the terms of that agreement, signaling a severe erosion of trust and commitment to the peace process. The previous conflict in Tigray was one of the deadliest of this century, with the African Union’s mediator estimating approximately 600,000 fatalities, pushing the region to the brink of famine.
During the war, the Ethiopian government faced allegations of deliberately blocking humanitarian food aid to the region—a charge it vehemently denied. The humanitarian crisis highlighted the extreme suffering inflicted upon civilians caught in the crossfire.
Cameron Hudson, an Africa analyst and former US State Department official, articulated the gravity of the situation, stating, “The risks are real and are driven by both sides.” His assessment underscores the mutual contributions to the escalating tensions, rather than attributing blame solely to one party.
Just prior to the recent election, the TPLF unilaterally restored its pre-war administration, effectively disbanding an interim government that Prime Minister Abiy had appointed. This move was a clear assertion of authority and a direct challenge to Addis Ababa’s influence in the region.
Hudson further commented on the TPLF’s actions, observing, “The Tigrayans bear responsibility for the growing tensions and they’ve been making moves and statements that suggest that they are preparing for a renewal of fighting.” Reports have emerged detailing the alleged forced recruitment of young men into TPLF forces, a highly concerning development.
Shewit Wudassie, a member of Salsay Weyane, an opposition political party operating within Tigray, corroborated these concerns, stating, “People in Tigray are worried as many youths are being recruited to join the military.” A young man from the town of Adwa recounted how armed individuals in civilian attire had detained him, informing him they were conscripting him for the “armed struggle.”
Local authorities in Tigray have, however, denied any forced recruitment, with Tesfaye Abadi, head of security in north-western Tigray, asserting, “The youths are simply getting training to defend themselves.” Yet, Hudson contends that the TPLF’s actions are also a reaction to Abiy’s own conduct, noting that the Prime Minister has “moved away from the agreement and made threatening moves towards the Tigrayans.”
International Calls for De-escalation
The international community has voiced increasing alarm over the deteriorating situation. The European Union recently issued a stern warning, calling for “an immediate de-escalation” in northern Ethiopia to prevent further conflict and suffering. This reflects a growing global concern about the potential for widespread instability.
The United States, a key architect behind the 2022 peace deal, recently announced targeted visa restrictions on “hardline members of the TPLF and their immediate family members.” While specific names were not disclosed, the US stated that these individuals were “responsible for, or complicit in, undermining resolution to the crisis in the Tigray region,” indicating a clear stance against actions that jeopardize peace.
Magnus Taylor, a Horn of Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group think-tank, believes that an immediate return to full-scale war is unlikely. Nevertheless, he characterizes the ongoing low-level tension as “a dangerous scenario.”
Taylor elaborated on the risks, explaining, “With this very polarised, poisonous regional politics in which Addis Ababa believes that TPLF is siding with Ethiopia’s enemies, there is more chance it might escalate into a regional conflict centred on Tigray.” This assessment highlights the profound mistrust and complex geopolitical dynamics that could easily trigger a wider conflagration.
