As Colombia approaches its pivotal presidential election, the pervasive shadow of internal conflict and escalating insecurity has cast a long pall over the electorate. Citizens across the nation are grappling with a brutal resurgence of violence, forcing countless individuals from their homes and profoundly influencing their choices at the ballot box. This deeply ingrained struggle, a legacy spanning six decades, continues to claim lives and displace communities, making the candidates’ proposed solutions to restore order and establish lasting peace the defining issue of the campaign.
Colombia’s enduring conflict and its human toll
The harrowing experiences of individuals like Edilma Martinez Flores underscore the profound human cost of Colombia’s protracted internal conflict. After her brother was tragically killed for failing to pay an extortion demand in front of his children, Edilma was compelled to abandon her life on the outskirts of Cali. Armed criminal organizations, asserting dominance through intimidation, distributed leaflets mandating residents to vacate their homes or face severe repercussions, leading to widespread displacement and the strategic placement of explosives along escape routes.
This plight is not isolated; it represents a broader crisis that has intensified in recent years. Colombia’s long-standing struggle, involving a complex interplay of illegal armed groups, state forces, and drug cartels, has historically resulted in hundreds of thousands of fatalities. Alarmingly, the ranks of these illicit factions have approximately doubled over the past half-decade, signaling a significant escalation in their operational capabilities and territorial control.
Among the most prominent groups driving this resurgence are the dissident elements of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the formidable Clan del Golfo. These entities have strategically expanded their dominion over vital rural territories, which serve as crucial conduits for lucrative drug trafficking routes and illicit mining operations. A particularly brutal offensive between the ELN and FARC dissidents near the Venezuela-Colombia border last year alone led to the displacement of tens of thousands, highlighting the severe humanitarian consequences of their territorial disputes.
Divergent paths to peace and security
The upcoming election presents Colombians with a stark choice between two fundamentally different approaches to confronting this pervasive violence. The campaign itself has been marred by tragic incidents, including the assassination of a presidential candidate, alongside a troubling rise in homicides, kidnappings, and bombings, further emphasizing the urgency of the security debate. Each leading contender offers a distinct vision for restoring stability and addressing the root causes of the conflict.
Left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda, often regarded as a key architect behind the current administration’s “total peace” agenda, advocates for a strategy prioritizing negotiation with armed groups. His supporters argue that this approach is vital for preventing even greater loss of life, drawing parallels to his instrumental role in the 2016 peace accord that led to the disarmament of thousands of FARC combatants. Cepeda has pledged to implement “social transformations that the country urgently cries out for,” while also committing to a thorough review of the existing peace strategy to enact necessary adjustments.
Conversely, his conservative challenger, Abelardo de la Espriella, a businessman and lawyer who has adopted the moniker “El Tigre” (The Tiger), champions a hardline, militaristic response. De la Espriella, an American citizen who has received an endorsement from Donald Trump, frequently appears in the Colombian football shirt, a symbol his left-wing critics accuse him of politicizing. He promises an uncompromising stance against criminal organizations, vowing an end to negotiations and pledging to construct ten mega-prisons.
De la Espriella has publicly declared his determination to confront these groups, stating, “Any criminal who does not surrender will be taken down.” His platform emphasizes a robust military crackdown, reflecting a belief that only a forceful approach can dismantle the power structures of illegal armed factions. This stark contrast in methodologies sets the stage for a deeply consequential election, where the future of Colombia’s internal conflict hangs in the balance.
The escalating displacement crisis
The scale of the internal displacement crisis provides a stark illustration of the conflict’s resurgence. Isabelita Mercado Pineda, a government advisor focused on peace, victims, and reconciliation in Bogotá, reported an alarming 300% increase in forced displacement between 2024 and 2025. This surge represents levels of displacement not witnessed in Colombia for two decades, indicating a significant deterioration in the security landscape.
Several factors contribute to this grave situation:
- A substantial rise in cocaine production, fueling the financial engines of armed groups.
- The failure of the national army to adequately occupy territories previously controlled by the FARC after their 2016 demobilization, creating power vacuums that illegal groups swiftly filled.
- Perceived shortcomings in the government’s security strategy, which some critics argue offers incentives to criminal organizations without sufficient deterrents.
The support center for victims in Bogotá frequently witnesses the personal tragedies stemming from this crisis. Erin Gamboa, from the Chocó region on the Pacific Coast, shared the painful memory of his half-brother being abducted by FARC guerrillas, with no news of his whereabouts since. He described his home region as “heavily contested,” where criminal gangs, paramilitaries, and guerrillas fiercely compete for control over lucrative illegal mining sites and cocaine trafficking routes. Another anonymous couple recounted how their small food delivery business became a target for extortion by an individual claiming affiliation with the FARC, demanding a significant sum from their children. Through tears, the woman lamented the pervasive growth of crime, stating, “you can’t go out in peace anymore.”
International backing and regional loyalties
Donald Trump’s endorsement of Abelardo de la Espriella injects an international dimension into the election, drawing criticism from the left as foreign interference. This move aligns with a broader trend of increased US interventionist posture towards criminal groups across Latin America. Trump explicitly linked the election’s outcome to Colombia’s relationship with the United States, asserting that “if Abelardo wins…[Colombia] will have the total support and strength of the United States behind him.” He further characterized Cepeda as a “radical left Marxist,” clearly indicating his preference.
De la Espriella’s political base is rooted in Colombia’s Caribbean coast, where he spent his formative years and continues to command strong regional support. Maria Luisa Sanchez, a long-time family friend and neighbor from his childhood, described him as a man of “very strong convictions” who has “achieved everything he has set out in life.” She believes his “character, courage” are precisely “what we need for Colombia, a person… who is tough on drug-trafficking, tough on guerillas.”
Sandra Caballero, a supporter from a village near Barranquilla, echoed these sentiments, highlighting de la Espriella’s commitment to collaborating with the United States in the fight against drug trafficking and his opposition to negotiating with criminals, a strategy she believes has yielded no results in four years. She also noted his plans to reform taxes to stimulate job creation and increase investment in security and healthcare, appealing to voters seeking economic stability alongside a firmer hand on crime.
Youth perspectives and the path forward
In contrast to de la Espriella’s base, Senator Cepeda garners significant support among Colombia’s younger demographic. Catalina La Grande, a student, articulated the appeal of Cepeda’s security platform, explaining, “Cepeda’s proposal for security not only contemplates the coercive forces of the state to stop crime, but also takes into account the structural roots of insecurity – the lack of state presence, poverty, inequality, many young people belonging to criminal groups.”
She emphasized a desire to avoid “security models from previous governments that have left thousands of victims and not solved the problems,” advocating instead for “negotiated security: combining repression [of armed groups] with social programmes.” This sentiment reflects a yearning for comprehensive solutions that address both immediate threats and underlying societal issues. At a fanzone for Colombia’s World Cup opener against Uzbekistan, where the team secured a 2-1 victory, young Sofía Diaz expressed her hopes for both her national team and Cepeda’s electoral success. “I’m more nervous about the elections,” she admitted, adding, “I like Cepeda’s proposals, he’s against fracking, he’s fought for the country all his life.” The streets of Bogotá, typically vibrant, now carry an undercurrent of tension, reflecting the profound significance of this election for the nation’s future peace and stability.
