On June 6, 2025, the Belmont Stakes, the third leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, promises high drama at Saratoga Race Course, with post time set for 7:04 p.m. ET. The race pits Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty (2-1) against Preakness victor Journalism (8-5) in a highly anticipated rematch. Yet, longshots Rodriguez (6-1) and Crudo (15-1), spotlighted by expert Jody Demling, could steal the show at the famed “Graveyard of Champions.” Boasting a $2 million purse, the event draws bettors and fans eyeing upsets like last year’s 15-1 Dornoch win. This article explores key contenders, longshot bets, and the race’s storied history, crafted for urban readers and racing enthusiasts.
The 2025 Belmont Stakes, hosted at Saratoga for the second year due to Belmont Park’s renovation, thrives on its upset-friendly reputation.
- Belmont Stakes 2025 tips:
- Target longshots like Rodriguez and Crudo for value.
- Study horses’ stamina for the 1.5-mile track.
- Use FanDuel, TwinSpires promos for betting bonuses.
Aired on FOX, the race underscores horse racing’s enduring appeal amid a crowded sports landscape.
Belmont Stakes legacy
Established in 1867, the Belmont Stakes predates the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, making it the Triple Crown’s oldest race. Typically held at Belmont Park, New York, it shifted to Saratoga in 2024 and 2025 due to renovations. The 1.5-mile track, the longest in the series, tests equine endurance, often producing surprises.
Saratoga, dubbed the “Graveyard of Champions,” has a history of upsets, from Man o’ War’s 1919 loss to Dornoch’s 2024 shocker at 15-1. The 2025 race, with a $2 million purse, draws top three-year-olds, continuing a tradition where 13 horses, most recently Justify in 2018, claimed the Triple Crown.
Leading contenders
Sovereignty, at 2-1 odds, enters as the Kentucky Derby champion, edging Journalism by a head in Louisville. Trained by Chad Brown, the colt boasts three wins in five starts, showcasing speed and grit. Journalism, at 8-5, took the Preakness and placed second in the Derby, proving versatile under trainer Bill Mott.
Baeza, with 4-1 odds, rounds out the top three after a strong third in the Kentucky Derby. Its late surge makes it a threat on Saratoga’s long stretch. While these favorites dominate headlines, Saratoga’s history favors dark horses.
Rodriguez: Baffert’s live longshot
Rodriguez, at 6-1, is a compelling bet. Trained by Bob Baffert, a three-time Belmont winner, the colt claimed the Grade II Wood Memorial in April but missed the Kentucky Derby due to a foot bruise. Now recovered, Rodriguez is primed to challenge the leaders.
The horse excels when leading early, as seen in a seven-length rout of Baeza at Santa Anita. However, in races without the lead, like the San Felipe Stakes, he faded to third, 11 lengths behind Journalism. Jockey Mike Smith will aim to set the pace and fend off closers.
- Rodriguez’s strengths:
- Bob Baffert’s proven Belmont success.
- Dominant wins when leading early.
- Five weeks’ rest post-injury.
- 6-1 odds offer solid betting value.
Bettors can leverage FanDuel’s $500 no-sweat bet promo for first-time users to back Rodriguez.
Crudo: The high-value underdog
Crudo, at 15-1, is Demling’s boldest pick. Sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, the colt debuted in February 2025, finishing fourth at Gulfstream Park. By April, he won by 7.25 lengths at Keeneland, followed by a 7.5-length victory in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, a four-time Belmont winner, and ridden by John Velazquez, with two Belmont titles, Crudo’s inexperience is offset by elite connections. Owners include celebrity chef Bobby Flay, adding intrigue.
- Crudo’s advantages:
- Justify’s championship lineage.
- Convincing wins at shorter and mid-distances.
- Pletcher and Velazquez’s Belmont pedigree.
TwinSpires’ $400 sign-up bonus enhances the appeal of betting on Crudo.
Saratoga’s unique track
Opened in 1863, Saratoga Race Course is among America’s oldest tracks. Its 1.5-mile dirt oval demands strategic pacing, rewarding versatile runners. The surface favors neither sprinters nor closers, but Saratoga’s upset history makes it a wild card.
Last year’s move to Saratoga saw Dornoch triumph as a longshot. With ten horses in the 2025 field, including five at 5-1 or longer odds, and dry weather forecast, the stage is set for a fast, unpredictable race.
Betting strategies
Jody Demling, who nailed the Kentucky Derby’s top three and the Preakness exacta in 2025, urges bettors to eye longshots. He touts an unnamed underdog as the race’s best value, with full picks and leaderboard projections available at SportsLine.
Exacta (top two finishers) and trifecta (top three) bets offer high payouts. Rodriguez and Crudo are strong for “place” or “show” wagers, while FanDuel and TwinSpires promos reduce risk for new bettors.
Other notable runners
Beyond the favorites and featured longshots, Mindframe (7-2) and Antiquarian (12-1) draw attention. Mindframe, also under Pletcher, won its last two races and could capitalize on early speed. Antiquarian, fresh off a Peter Pan Stakes win, is another upset candidate.
The field’s mix of racing styles—front-runners, stalkers, and closers—adds complexity. Jockey tactics will be crucial on Saratoga’s demanding stretch.
Belmont’s cultural weight
The Belmont Stakes transcends sport, drawing 50,000 fans to Saratoga and millions via TV. It often crowns the horse of the year, with Sovereignty and Journalism vying for the title. An upset by Rodriguez or Crudo would etch their names in racing lore, echoing Saratoga’s legacy.
The $2 million purse ranks among the sport’s richest, boosting Saratoga Springs’ economy with packed hotels and eateries.
Race trivia
The Belmont Stakes, dubbed the “Test of the Champion,” is the Triple Crown’s toughest race due to its length.
- Belmont Stakes facts:
- Only 13 horses have won the Triple Crown, last in 2018.
- Saratoga hosts in 2024-2025 due to Belmont Park upgrades.
- Dornoch’s 2024 win paid $15 per $1 bet.
The 2025 race, with Rodriguez and Crudo in the mix, is poised for thrills and potential shocks.
