Max Verstappen closer to staying with Red Bull than leaving for 2026, BBC reports

Max Verstappen, the four-time Formula 1 champion, remains at the center of the driver market, with speculation about staying with Red Bull or moving to teams like Mercedes or Aston Martin in 2026. According to BBC journalist Andrew Benson, the Dutchman is more inclined to renew with the Austrian team for the upcoming season, despite talks with Mercedes and interest from Aston Martin. The decision, which could reshape the Formula 1 grid, comes amid regulatory changes and internal instability at Red Bull, including the recent departure of former team principal Christian Horner. Negotiations remain under wraps, but the scenario points to Verstappen continuing in Milton Keynes, where he won his four world titles. However, uncertainty keeps the paddock on edge, with Mercedes as the main alternative if Verstappen chooses to leave.

The 2025 season has been challenging for Verstappen, who sits third in the championship, 69 points behind leader Oscar Piastri of McLaren. Red Bull, which dominated Formula 1 from 2021 to 2024, is struggling with the RB21 car, particularly after Horner’s exit and the transition to in-house engines with Ford for 2026. Despite this, Verstappen remains the team’s key asset, contributing 165 of Red Bull’s 172 points in the constructors’ championship.

• Key decision factors: car performance, 2026 regulatory changes, and team stability.
• Current scenario: Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull until 2028, but performance clauses could allow an exit.
• Competition: Mercedes and Aston Martin are monitoring, with Mercedes as the frontrunner if he leaves Red Bull.

Mercedes negotiations progress, but no guarantees

The possibility of Verstappen joining Mercedes has gained traction in recent weeks, especially after confirmed meetings between the driver, his manager Raymond Vermeulen, and Toto Wolff, Mercedes’ team principal. Mercedes, which dominated Formula 1 from 2014 to 2021, is confident in its preparations for the 2026 regulations, which include greater electrification and sustainable fuels. The team believes its engine will be competitive, attracting Verstappen’s interest, according to sources close to the talks.

However, Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull poses a significant hurdle. The driver has an exit clause that, per reports, can be triggered if he finishes outside the top 4 in the drivers’ championship after the Hungarian Grand Prix in August 2025. Currently third, 18 points ahead of Mercedes’ George Russell and 46 points ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, it’s unlikely the clause will be activated. Additionally, Red Bull demands a termination fee estimated at over £100 million, a sum Mercedes is reportedly willing to negotiate but which remains a financial challenge.

Mercedes faces internal uncertainties. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, the team’s current drivers, lack confirmed contracts for 2026, fueling speculation. Russell, who has shone this season, said he’s calm but acknowledged that talks with Verstappen are delaying his renewal. Antonelli, an 18-year-old prospect, is also in the mix, but his inexperience could weigh against him in a potential battle for a seat with Verstappen.

Aston Martin’s interest faces obstacles

Aston Martin has emerged as an intriguing option for Verstappen, especially after hiring Adrian Newey, Red Bull’s former designer who crafted Verstappen’s championship-winning cars. The team, set to use Honda engines from 2026, aims to become a competitive force. However, the presence of Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll complicates any deal. Alonso, a two-time champion, is eager to race a Newey-designed car, while Stroll, son of team owner Lawrence Stroll, has a near-guaranteed seat.

• Aston Martin obstacles:
  • Alonso: Contracted until 2026 and excited about Newey’s project.
  • Stroll: Seat secured by his familial tie to the team owner.
  • Financial constraints: A reported £226 million offer for three years, cited by Italian sources, is ambitious but uncertain.

Despite the appeal of Newey and Honda engines, with which Verstappen won his titles, Aston Martin seems an unlikely destination. The team must still prove its competitiveness, and the lack of available seats makes a move improbable.

Red Bull focuses on regaining competitiveness

Red Bull, under new leadership with Laurent Mekies, formerly of Ferrari, is determined to keep Verstappen as the cornerstone of its project. The team faces challenges developing the new RBPT-Ford engine for 2026 but remains confident in its chassis design expertise, historically a strength. Mekies, who took over after Horner’s departure, has made retaining Verstappen an immediate priority, offering greater contractual flexibility, including side projects like Verstappen.com Racing.

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Verstappen has been cautious about discussing his future, emphasizing his focus on improving the current car’s performance. In recent interviews, he noted that the uncertainty of the 2026 regulations makes switching teams risky. “No one knows who’ll have the best car in 2026. I’m focused on driving what I have and making it faster,” he said at Silverstone.

• Red Bull’s 2026 strategies:
  • Developing the RBPT-Ford engine, despite early challenges.
  • Investing in chassis design to maintain competitiveness.
  • Offering contractual concessions, like freedom for Verstappen’s personal projects.

Paddock reactions and driver market impact

Uncertainty over Verstappen’s future has sparked varied reactions in the paddock. Jenson Button, the 2009 world champion, expressed excitement about a potential Verstappen-Russell pairing at Mercedes but warned that Verstappen might struggle to adapt to a car not tailored to his driving style. Martin Brundle, Sky Sports commentator, noted that Mercedes sees signing Verstappen as a chance to not only secure the grid’s best driver but also weaken Red Bull, its historic rival.

The situation also affects other drivers. George Russell, confident in his Mercedes renewal, faces pressure from the possibility of Verstappen taking his seat. Kimi Antonelli could be loaned to a partner team like Williams if Mercedes opts for a major shake-up. Ferrari, monitoring the situation, may benefit indirectly, as Charles Leclerc is close to Verstappen in the standings and could influence the activation of his exit clause.

Historical transfers and past lessons

Formula 1 has a history of impactful driver moves that shaped eras of dominance. Lewis Hamilton’s switch from McLaren to Mercedes in 2013, ahead of the 2014 regulations, is often cited as a precedent. Convinced by Mercedes’ engine confidence, Hamilton won six of his seven titles with the team. Verstappen, aware of this example, may be weighing whether Mercedes can replicate that success in 2026, while Red Bull aims to avoid a strategic misstep.

• Notable historical transfers:
  • Lewis Hamilton (McLaren to Mercedes, 2013): Capitalized on 2014 rule changes.
  • Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull to Ferrari, 2015): Sought new challenges but found less success.
  • Michael Schumacher (Benetton to Ferrari, 1996): Transformed Ferrari into a powerhouse.

Verstappen’s decision, whether to stay or move, will hinge on technical, financial, and personal factors, with the potential to reshape Formula 1’s competitive landscape.

Verstappen’s future and Formula 1’s new era

With the 2026 regulations introducing smaller, lighter cars with 50% electric power, Verstappen’s choice will be pivotal for his pursuit of new records. Red Bull, despite current struggles, has a track record of adapting well to rule changes, as seen in 2022 when it dominated the championship. Mercedes is banking on its engine expertise to reclaim the lead, while Aston Martin aims to establish itself as a new contender.

At 27, Verstappen is at the peak of his career and aims to cement his legacy as one of Formula 1’s greatest drivers. His decision, expected to be announced during or after the summer break in August 2025, will shape not only his future but also the 2026 driver market. For now, the scales tip toward Red Bull, but Mercedes remains a credible threat, keeping the paddock on tenterhooks.