Anti-government protests have entered their thirteenth consecutive day in Iran, representing the most significant and widespread challenge to the regime in years. Authorities moved to severely restrict internet and telephone access nationwide on Thursday, effectively isolating the country after a night of intense national demonstrations. Human rights organizations have reported dozens of fatalities since the unrest began, marking a critical and escalating period for the Islamic Republic.

Unraveling the Economic Spark of Iran’s Unrest

The latest wave of protests initially ignited as economic grievances within Tehran’s bustling bazaars, quickly evolving into broader anti-regime demonstrations that swept across the nation. Concerns over rampant inflation reached a boiling point last week when the prices of essential goods, such as cooking oil and chicken, saw dramatic overnight spikes, with some items vanishing entirely from store shelves. This volatile situation was further exacerbated by the central bank’s decision to discontinue a program that provided certain importers with access to cheaper U.S. dollars compared to the open market, leading many shopkeepers to raise prices or even temporarily close their establishments, directly triggering initial protests. Such a move by the bazaaris, traditionally a group aligned with the Islamic Republic, signals a drastic shift in their long-standing support, reflecting deep-seated frustration beyond typical economic fluctuations.

The Expanding Reach of Dissident Voices

These current demonstrations represent the largest in scale since 2022, when the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in religious police custody sparked the extensive “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests. Over 100 cities have seen participation in the recent acts of defiance, which commenced nearly two weeks ago.

Protests have spread robustly into Iranian provinces like Ilam, a Kurdish-majority region bordering Iraq, and Lorestan, both emerging as significant hotspots of unrest. Fueled by a complex interplay of ethnic divisions and pervasive poverty, crowds have set streets ablaze and openly chanted “Death to Khamenei,” directly challenging the Supreme Leader’s ultimate authority over the country’s religious and state affairs.

A Shifting Dynamic: Why These Protests Are Different

The current unrest is notably distinct, primarily due to the active involvement of the bazaaris—a powerful force historically instrumental in shaping change within Iran and typically perceived as loyal to the ruling establishment. For over a century of Iranian history, the bazaaris have functioned as key actors in nearly all major political movements, with many observers considering them among the most steadfast supporters of the Islamic Republic. Their enduring alliance with the clergy once provided crucial financial backing to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, contributing significantly to the monarch’s downfall and the establishment of the current regime.

While their role as a political force has become more symbolic in recent decades, the profound impact of currency fluctuations on their businesses proved to be the decisive factor that propelled them to initiate these now-deadly protests. The regime has attempted to draw a distinction between “economic protestors” and those advocating for regime change, often labeling the latter as foreign-backed “rioters” and “mercenaries” while promising harsher crackdowns against them. Experts like Sanam Vakil of Chatham House and Dina Esfandiary of Bloomberg Economics suggest these protests could lead to significant shifts, with a growing sentiment of frustration and exhaustion suggesting the current Islamic Republic may not endure beyond 2027.

The Regime’s Stance and Future Challenges

Iran has operated as a theocracy since 1979, when clerics ousted a Western-allied monarch, leading to the formation of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Though Masoud Pezeshkian was elected president in 2024, advocating for a more pragmatic foreign policy, his powers remain limited, as Khamenei retains ultimate command over all major state affairs. Pezeshkian himself acknowledged the limitations, stating in a televised speech that his government should not be expected to address all issues independently.

Pezeshkian campaigned as a champion of the working class, promising economic relief through reduced government intervention in currency markets while also attributing economic woes to U.S. sanctions, corruption, and excessive money printing. However, widespread corruption across all government sectors, mismanagement of funds, and the convergence of environmental crises with stagnant leadership have pushed the government to the brink. Over a year into his presidency, the very working class he pledged to protect, alongside the middle class forming the backbone of Iranian society, now faces deepening hardships.

Escalating Tensions: Global Reactions and Internal Warnings

External factors, including crippling sanctions and the looming threat of new conflicts with the United States and Israel, have cultivated an atmosphere of paranoia within the state and anxiety among the populace. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a communiqué on Friday, May 9, 2025, declaring the preservation of the country’s government as its “red line” and reserving the right to “retaliation” against any perceived threats.

Meanwhile, the exiled son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi, has positioned himself as a potential alternative to the current ruling regime, publicly expressing support for the protests and issuing direct appeals for coordinated action across the nation. On Tuesday, May 6, 2025, Pahlavi called upon Iranians to chant slogans en masse, a call that appears to have resonated with at least some participants in the ongoing acts of defiance.

Calls for Change and a Fractured Trust

One of the slogans heard during the demonstrations, “This is the last battle, Pahlavi will return,” suggests a segment of the populace yearns for a return to monarchist rule. While pro-monarchy chants have been documented in protest videos, the true extent of monarchist support nationwide remains difficult to ascertain.

– No Iranian political leaders currently present a clear plan to steer the nation out of its multifaceted crises.
– The primary tools left to the Islamic Republic are coercion and brute force, as peaceful methods of expression have often been met with repression.
– Over the past 15 years, significant segments of the Iranian population have steadily lost trust in the regime’s capacity or willingness to address their grievances.

Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Tehran of severe consequences if protestors are killed, stating he would order forceful attacks. In a televised address, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Trump to “focus on his own country,” blaming the U.S. for inciting the protests.