US-Canada relations strained as Alberta independence group seeks Trump’s aid and funding

A new territorial dispute is further escalating the complex relationship between the United States and Canada, centered not on threats of annexation, but on a Canadian province’s bid for independence. The situation recently intensified following reports that U.S. State Department officials engaged in multiple meetings with leaders of an Albertan secessionist group, prompting a direct appeal from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to President Donald Trump for respect of Canadian sovereignty. This development highlights growing cross-border friction as a wealthy Canadian province explores avenues for self-governance, potentially reshaping North American geopolitics. The interactions, confirmed by a U.S. White House official, are stirring significant indignation across Canada, forcing provinces to present a united front against what many perceive as foreign interference in domestic affairs.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney this week reiterated his demand that President Trump “respect Canadian sovereignty,” a plea made after the *Financial Times* reported that U.S. State Department officials met three times with leaders of a group advocating for Alberta’s secession from Canada. These meetings, which reportedly took place since April 2025, indicate a deepening engagement by U.S. authorities with a movement that openly seeks to break away from the Canadian confederation.

The White House, responding to inquiries, downplayed the U.S. involvement, with an official telling CNN that “government officials meet with various civil society groups. No support or commitment was conveyed.” Despite this official minimization, the news has reignited fury within Canada, particularly as the nation strives to maintain unity against the Trump administration’s ongoing tariff threats and perceived territorial challenges.

The Alberta Prosperity Project’s ambitious financial plea

The group at the center of this controversy, known as the Alberta Prosperity Project, is actively campaigning for a referendum on the province’s independence. According to a LinkedIn post by one of its leaders, the organization intends to solicit a substantial line of credit, amounting to US$500 billion, from U.S. Treasury officials. This colossal sum is earmarked to “support the transition to a free and independent Alberta,” underscoring the group’s concrete, albeit ambitious, financial strategy for secession.

Alberta: a unique and energy-rich Canadian province

Alberta, a province rich in oil and located in western Canada, is roughly the size of Texas, boasting a population of approximately 5 million people. Its landscape is defined by the majestic Rocky Mountains and includes world-renowned tourist destinations like Banff and Lake Louise.

This province cultivates a distinctive political and cultural identity, largely shaped by its robust energy and agricultural sectors, its strong commitment to economic individualism, and its low-tax environment. Often recognized as the “energy province,” Alberta’s vast oil sands account for roughly 84% of Canada’s total crude oil production, making it an economic powerhouse within the federation.

Deep roots of Alberta’s independence sentiment

For a considerable time, Alberta’s separatists have expressed a profound sense that their interests are not adequately represented in Ottawa, the Canadian capital. They frequently articulate grievances regarding federal policies, asserting that Ottawa’s climate change initiatives detrimentally impact Alberta’s vital oil industry. Furthermore, a common complaint is that Alberta contributes a disproportionately high amount in federal taxes compared to the benefits it receives in return, fostering a belief of economic inequity.

This sentiment is intensified by the perception that Alberta’s conservative values are often marginalized by the more liberal and populous provinces to the east. Michael Solberg, a partner at New West Public Affairs, who previously served as a political advisor, notes that “the feeling of alienation has existed since Confederation and certainly since Alberta became a province in 1905.” He added that this sentiment typically escalates when Albertans believe Ottawa’s decisions directly harm their way of life. The federal government’s COVID-19 lockdowns and more than a decade of liberal leadership from Ottawa have only exacerbated these feelings, particularly as the rest of Canada rallied in patriotic opposition to Trump.

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Trump’s influence invigorates the secessionist movement

The return of Donald Trump, a staunchly pro-oil conservative, to the White House has notably energized Alberta’s separatist movement, with some even redefining its ultimate objective. At a recent independence rally in Alberta, supporters were observed wearing MAGA-style caps emblazoned with “Make Alberta Great Again,” openly praising Trump as “North America’s greatest asset” and a potential ally for their cause.

While many attendees at the rally expressed a desire for Alberta to become a fully independent nation, a segment also voiced support for an alternative: Alberta joining the United States as its 51st state. This notion gained visual prominence in February 2025, when a billboard appeared on the highway between Calgary and Edmonton, urging viewers to tell Premier Smith that Alberta should “Join the USA!”, featuring her image shaking hands with Trump. The billboard’s funding came from a group operating under the slogan “Canadians for the 51st State.”

High-ranking officials within the Trump administration have also publicly backed Albertans seeking independence. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a recent interview with Real America’s Voice, declared Alberta a “natural partner for the U.S.,” praising the province’s “great resources” and “very independent people.” Bessent, who indicated awareness of a potential upcoming referendum, articulated that “people want sovereignty. They want what the U.S. has,” and criticized Canada for allegedly preventing Alberta from building an oil pipeline to the Pacific, adding, “I think we should let them get to the U.S.”

The complex path to a potential independence referendum

The possibility of Alberta holding an independence referendum is considered “highly likely,” according to Michael Solberg. Historically, only two Canadian provinces have ever conducted such a plebiscite, both in French-speaking Quebec, with the most recent in 1995 resulting in a narrow vote to remain within Canada. Solberg emphasized the gravity of the current situation, stating, “All indications are that there will be a referendum this fall on whether Alberta should remain in the Confederation. The situation is critical and starts to feel real.”

Another separatist organization, Stay Free Alberta, is actively gathering signatures for a petition to force a referendum, with some of its meetings drawing significant crowds. The group faces a deadline in May to collect 177,732 valid voter signatures to proceed.

Public opinion and indigenous concerns shape the debate

Despite the growing activism, public opinion polls suggest that support for Alberta’s full independence remains relatively low. A survey conducted in January by Pollara Strategic Insights revealed that only 19% of Albertans would support secession. However, a notable portion of those supporting a referendum may be “symbolic separatists,” as noted by Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University. These individuals, she suggested, might simply be aiming to “send a message to Ottawa so that Alberta had a stronger negotiating position” rather than genuinely seeking full separation.

Conversely, a citizen’s petition opposing secession has also garnered substantial support, collecting over 400,000 signatures. Some of the most vocal opposition to the idea of independence comes from Indigenous communities, whose treaties with the Canadian state predate Alberta’s provincial status. Under pressure from these communities, the government incorporated a clause into the referendum bill, guaranteeing their treaty rights regardless of the outcome.

Alberta’s premier navigates a delicate political landscape

Danielle Smith, Alberta’s Premier, has publicly stated that she does not support secession but has refrained from denouncing those who lobby for it, labeling their grievances as “legitimate.” Even if a referendum were to pass, the secession process would be “extraordinarily complex and destabilizing,” Solberg warned. He highlighted the absence of a clear roadmap for secession, especially given the ambiguity surrounding the ultimate goal—whether full independence or union with the U.S. “These are unresolved issues, or at least they do not yet have satisfactory answers, and the legal and economic risks remain immense,” Solberg concluded, underscoring the profound challenges inherent in such a move.