Strategic timing: Mexico’s high-stakes operation against ‘El Mencho’ before 2025 World Cup

On Sunday, February 23, 2025, Mexican federal forces launched a major operation in Jalisco, western Mexico, aimed at apprehending Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, widely known as “El Mencho.” The leader of the notorious Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and one of the most wanted figures in North America, El Mencho was the target of a meticulously planned raid that culminated in his death later that afternoon, marking a significant, albeit bloody, victory for the Mexican government. The aftermath of this dramatic event saw widespread violence and disruption across multiple states, raising questions about the timing and rationale behind such a high-profile strike.

The federal security secretary confirmed on Monday, February 24, 2025, a grim toll from the operation and subsequent cartel retaliation. Fatalities included 30 suspected criminals, 25 members of the National Guard, one prison guard, a local prosecutor’s office official, and one civilian in Jalisco alone.

An additional four suspected criminals died in Michoacán, alongside 85 road blockades across 11 states, vehicles set ablaze, and attacks on gas stations and businesses. These widespread acts of violence prompted several institutions to suspend flights, bus services, and classes at the start of the week, with Guadalajara, a key World Cup host city, particularly affected.

Window of opportunity drives decisive action

Armando Vargas, coordinator of the Security Program at the Mexico Evalúa non-governmental organization, suggested that based on official information, the government estimated this was the optimal moment to act against “El Mencho.” This decision was made despite the looming proximity of the 2025 World Cup, which Mexico will co-host with the United States and Canada, with its opening match scheduled for June 11 in Mexico City.

“It appears Mexico made a calculation where the numbers were favorable; there was no better opportunity to capture him,” Vargas stated. “In other words, intelligence conditions led to an extraordinary location and execution capability.”

The operation unfolded in the mountainous region of Tapalpa, one of Jalisco’s 125 municipalities, a state from which the CJNG significantly expanded its criminal activities.

Unveiling the operation’s intricate details

Mexico’s Secretary of Defense, Ricardo Trevilla, provided specific insights into the operation’s genesis and execution. Military intelligence initially detected that one of “El Mencho’s” partners arrived at a property in Tapalpa on February 20, 2025, where she met with him. The following day, February 21, the woman departed the location, and the Army subsequently confirmed that “El Mencho” remained there with his security team.

Following this confirmation, the operation to apprehend him was meticulously planned for that Sunday. Special forces from the Army converged on the site, where they were met with a “very violent attack.” This initial confrontation resulted in a firefight and several casualties.

The cartel leader and some of his bodyguards attempted to evade capture by fleeing into a densely wooded area. However, they were quickly surrounded, wounded, and subsequently taken into custody.

“Once the situation was controlled, the military medical team proceeded to the location where ‘El Mencho’ and his security detail, including his two wounded bodyguards, were found. They determined immediate evacuation was necessary due to their critical condition,” Trevilla explained. “A helicopter was requested to transport them to a medical center in Jalisco. ‘El Mencho,’ his two bodyguards, and a wounded officer were airlifted. Unfortunately, they succumbed to their injuries during transit.” The body of El Mencho was later transferred to Mexico City, where the Attorney General’s Office confirmed his identification.

The calculated risk and CJNG’s anticipated response

Beyond seizing a window of opportunity, Mexican authorities also factored in the likelihood of a violent backlash from “El Mencho’s” cartel, according to expert analysts. This calculated risk was a pivotal element in their decision-making process, highlighting the state’s confidence in its ability to manage the ensuing unrest.

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“Knowing there would be a reaction, the Mexican state nevertheless calculated that it possessed the capacity, perhaps in collaboration with the United States through intelligence services, to contain the disturbance, maintain governance, and restore order within a short period,” Vargas elaborated.

“I believe the Mexican government made this decision through a rational calculation, understanding it could contain the conflict and that no better opportunity to capture ‘El Mencho’ would arise. Delaying the operation until after the World Cup, or even a few weeks later, could have had disastrous economic consequences.” By late Sunday and early Monday, officials reported that most road blockades and violent incidents were under control, with flights and bus services gradually resuming normal operations.

Gustavo López Montiel, a Political Science professor at the Monterrey Institute of Technology, concurred with Vargas, emphasizing that the government likely assessed its capability to repel a CJNG reaction. The CJNG is recognized as one of the continent’s most violent organizations, with a history of forceful responses to attempts on its leadership.

The academic further noted that the current situation differs from the aftermath of Ismael Zambada, “El Mayo,” capture in Sinaloa in late 2014. That event triggered severe infighting within the Sinaloa Cartel, leading to a spike in homicides. López Montiel points out that the CJNG currently lacks visible internal conflicts, reducing the probability of “El Mencho’s” death catalyzing similar factional violence.

The enduring influence of US pressure

The role of the United States in Mexico’s security policy cannot be overlooked when analyzing the operation against “El Mencho.” This external pressure has consistently shaped Mexico’s strategic decisions regarding cartel enforcement.

Since President Donald Trump commenced his second presidential term in 2025, he has persistently urged Mexico to escalate its efforts against criminal organizations. Trump has even gone as far as to suggest that American forces might conduct operations on Mexican soil, a proposition firmly rejected by President Sheinbaum as a violation of national sovereignty.

During a press conference on Monday, President Sheinbaum acknowledged an exchange of intelligence with the United States prior to the operation. However, she emphatically reiterated that the deployment of forces remained exclusively Mexican.

López Montiel asserted that US pressure was a fundamental factor in Mexico’s decision to act against “El Mencho” at this particular juncture. Washington had offered a substantial $15 million reward for information leading to the cartel leader’s capture since Trump designated the CJNG as a terrorist organization.

“The operation against El Mencho allows the president to gain time not only in relations with the United States but also in the context of the tariffs that were removed from Trump’s budget last week,” he explained. Javier Oliva, a security expert and professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, highlighted that the focus now shifts to how Trump will respond to Mexico’s significant strike against the CJNG.

“In colloquial terms, it’s his turn to act,” Oliva remarked. “We need to see how he reacts to this conflict where 25 members of the Mexican Army and National Guard died. We will observe what his contribution will be, beyond empty declarations and belligerent postures.”