Pragmatism over power: China’s measured reaction to US ousting Venezuelan and Iranian leaders in 2025

In a swift and dramatic sequence of events this year, the United States, under President Donald Trump, effectively neutralized two key allies of Beijing: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Maduro was reportedly apprehended in Caracas by U.S. special forces during a nocturnal operation, now held in a New York detention facility. Khamenei met his end in a daylight airstrike in central Tehran, a joint mission conducted by U.S. and Israeli forces.

China reacted with strong verbal condemnation, expressing outrage at the capture or killing of sovereign leaders and denouncing what it perceived as a clear U.S. attempt at regime change. Beijing also extended overtures of friendship to Iran, reaffirming its diplomatic ties.

Despite this vocal disapproval, China’s actions remained largely observational. The geopolitical rival shifted the global power dynamic, yet Beijing’s response did not escalate beyond diplomatic rhetoric.

For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the unfolding situation underscores an unwavering commitment to pragmatism, carefully balancing strategic priorities in a volatile international landscape.

Beijing’s strategic calculus

Iran, while a significant partner, ultimately ranks lower on Beijing’s list of core priorities compared to the stability of its relationship with the United States. This consideration is particularly pertinent given ongoing high-level engagements between the two global powers, including a crucial summit anticipated later this year.

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Additionally, some analysts suggest that China may view the diversion of Washington’s military attention and resources away from the Indo-Pacific region as a beneficial outcome. Such a shift could alleviate some of the strategic pressure on Beijing in its own sphere of influence, presenting an indirect advantage.

Limited leverage, minimal risk

While China has long been Iran’s primary purchaser of crude oil, the strategic importance of the Middle Eastern nation to Beijing is more limited than widely believed. The scope of military cooperation between the two countries remains restricted, preventing deeper entanglements.

Furthermore, trade and investment flows between China and Iran are surpassed by those with various other Gulf states. Beijing consistently seeks to maintain balanced relations across the entire Middle East, avoiding over-reliance on any single partner.

Experts note that China perceives no tangible benefit in escalating tensions with the U.S. over Iran. Preserving the fragile commercial truce and overall bilateral stability with Washington remains a paramount objective for Beijing, which has meticulously cultivated positive momentum with the current U.S. administration.

The evolving dynamics of support

Historically, China has been a vital source of diplomatic and economic backing for Iran. Beyond significant oil purchases, Beijing has consistently denounced what it labels “unilateral” U.S. sanctions against Iran, affirming Tehran’s insistence on the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.

In recent years, China has bolstered Iran’s global standing by integrating it into Beijing-backed multilateral forums such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These inclusions have expanded Tehran’s diplomatic reach during periods of intense Western isolation.

Chinese companies have also reportedly supplied chemicals crucial for Iran’s missile program and assisted in developing its internal surveillance infrastructure. Beijing maintains that all its commercial activities with Iran adhere strictly to international law and regulations.

Despite these supportive actions, China has a consistent policy of avoiding direct involvement in its partners’ conflicts. Its interest in Middle Eastern security matters rarely extends beyond the protection of its own vital resources, a pattern observed during past regional skirmishes.

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Balancing regional interests

Beijing’s ties with Iran contribute to its energy security and influence in the Middle East. However, the nation also actively cultivates support from other regional actors, notably Iran’s rival, Saudi Arabia, seeking a delicate balance in its regional diplomacy. Earlier this year, China played a pivotal role in mediating a significant rapprochement between these two regional powers.

Nevertheless, concerns continue to mount in Washington regarding the deepening alignment between China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea. Leaders from these four nations reportedly convened in Beijing for a notable display of unity during a major military parade recently. Moreover, joint military exercises involving China, Russia, and Iran have become a regular feature in recent years, signaling closer strategic coordination.

Reliability under scrutiny

The limited support Beijing offered Iran during recent military engagements raises critical questions about its dependability as a partner during times of severe adversity. Analysts suggest this could prompt other nations considering security cooperation with China to reevaluate Beijing’s commitment, especially for those geographically distant.

Unforeseen opportunities for Beijing

The recent developments surrounding Iran also present China with several structural advantages. A deeper and sustained involvement of the United States in military conflicts within the Middle East inevitably diverts Washington’s strategic resources and attention. This shift objectively limits the U.S. capacity to maintain consistent pressure on China in the crucial Indo-Pacific region, potentially easing constraints on Beijing’s strategic maneuvering. Furthermore, an extended campaign could significantly deplete U.S. weapons stockpiles. China’s existing prohibition on the export of rare earth elements for military use could severely hinder Washington’s efforts to replenish these critical resources, which are essential components for a wide array of advanced armaments, from precision missiles to advanced fighter jets.

Short-term energy shocks and resilience

Despite the broader strategic implications, short-term disruptions for China, particularly in its energy sector, remain an unavoidable concern. Nearly all of Iran’s crude oil exports have historically been directed to China, accounting for approximately 13% of China’s total seaborne crude oil imports.

Energy trade between the two countries often relies on an intricate network of vessels that channel Iranian oil to smaller, independent refineries along China’s coast, frequently through intermediary nations. This practice is believed to keep the refining operations separate from major Chinese state-owned enterprises, which would be far more vulnerable to U.S. sanctions. These “clandestine” refineries frequently utilize a “dark fleet” of tankers employing concealment tactics to smuggle sanctioned goods.

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Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability

A more significant concern for Beijing appears to be the potential for widespread conflict in the region and major disruptions within the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a critical shipping route for crude oil originating from key producers like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Oil from the region constitutes approximately one-third of China’s total demand and more than 50% of its maritime imports, with a substantial portion transiting through the strait.

In recent days, an advisor to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander reportedly threatened to target any vessel passing through the strait, further heightening global security concerns. Even prior to these comments, traffic in the vital waterway had already seen significant slowdowns following reports of tanker attacks in the region. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, underscored the strait’s importance for global trade and urged an immediate de-escalation, emphasizing that ensuring regional security and stability serves the common interests of the international community.

A contrasting global narrative

China is likely to leverage the U.S. military intervention in Iran to reinforce its narrative, particularly among countries in the Global South, portraying Washington as a hegemonic power. By contrast, Beijing consistently positions itself as a steadfast defender of the principle of non-interference in sovereign affairs.