Bitcoin rises 5% while Dubai real estate falls 18% since the start of the war in Iran

The conflict in Oriente Médio involving Irã, Israel and Estados Unidos had a distinct impact on the cryptocurrency markets and the real estate sector in Dubai. The Bitcoin has seen a recovery and rise since the outbreak of hostilities, while the real estate index of Dubai has seen a significant decline over the same period. The air strikes that began on February 28, 2026, provoked immediate reactions in risky assets and local investments.

Bitcoin was operating at around US$65,492 at the time of the first bombings against Irã. After a brief dip to $63,000, the cryptocurrency recovered to reach $69,000 in recent trading, representing a gain of around 5.4%. Esse movement contrasts with the performance of traditional assets such as gold and oil in the early days of the conflict.

The Dubai real estate market suffered significant losses. The Dubai Financial Market real estate index closed at 13,353 points, down 18.1% from the level of 16,306 points recorded on February 27, the last session before the attacks. Essa devaluation eliminated gains accumulated in the year and brought prices closer to 2024 levels.

Initial reaction in financial markets

The Emirados Árabes Unidos exchanges suspended operations for two days to contain panic sales. The Dubai airport and civilian areas recorded direct hits from Iranian missiles, which accelerated the outflow of foreign capital. Demand for private flights to leave the emirate increased by at least 300% during the airport closure period.

Listed developers showed sharp declines. Shares of Emaar Properties, responsible for Burj Khalifa, fell from 17 dirhams to 13.30 dirhams, a reduction of 22%. Aldar Properties, the largest developer of Abu Dhabi, fell 5% when negotiations reopened.

Factors putting pressure on the real estate sector

Dubai has attracted a large volume of foreign investors in recent years, driven by tax incentives and positioning as a cryptocurrency hub. Empresas like Bybit,

The conflict altered this flow. Perceived regional instability has led to accelerated sales in luxury and secondary properties. Agregadores of distressed property offers indicated average reductions of 4.9% in asking prices, with some properties showing cuts of over 10% in a few days.

Before the war, rating agencies were already warning of possible drops of up to 15% due to the excess supply of condominiums expected for the second half of 2026. The current shrinking demand worsens this scenario.

Bitcoin performance in comparison

Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience amid geopolitical volatility. Após the initial drop, the recovery occurred amid global negotiations that treated cryptocurrency as an alternative asset in scenarios of uncertainty. The observed gain exceeds the performance of regional equity markets and reflects the exit from leveraged positions in other assets.

Nearby markets, such as Kuwait, have suspended operations since the beginning of March. The property index of Dubai exhibited variations limited by 5% daily control mechanisms on the local exchange, but the downward movement persisted in subsequent sessions.

Perspectives for local investors

The emirate has established itself as a destination for foreign capital attracted by stability and tax benefits. The conflict exposed vulnerabilities dependent on external influences. Proprietários who have updated sales prices face longer negotiations and additional reductions.

Developers remain optimistic about long-term fundamentals, but the current environment requires caution. Real estate transaction volume in 2025 reached records with over AED 917 billion, driven by international buyers.

Bitcoin continues to attract attention as a store of value in contexts of regional tension. The recent rise reinforces the role of cryptocurrency in diversified portfolios, even with elevated risks at Oriente Médio.