Gasoline and diesel prices rise again with doubts about US-Iran ceasefire

The cost of gasoline and diesel has continued to rise in several markets as drivers wait to see whether the ceasefire announced between Estados Unidos and Irã will result in lower prices at gas stations. Oil prices initially fell after the agreement to pause the conflicts, but rose this Thursday due to doubts about maintaining the understanding. A barrel of Brent approached 99 dollars before retreating slightly, remaining well above levels before the start of the clashes.

Drivers in several countries face higher bills to fill their tank, with crude oil directly influencing the final value of fuel. Grupos from consumer protection indicate that a significant drop should only occur in the coming weeks, if the ceasefire remains stable.

• Average gasoline prices have risen by around 19% since the start of the conflict.
• Diesel recorded an even greater increase, close to 34% in some markets.
• A full tank of gasoline now costs more than 13 additional dollars compared to February.

Doubts about the duration of the agreement raise tension in energy markets

Uncertainties arose following Israeli attacks on Líbano, which prompted Irã to alert for a possible response. The president of Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, stated that American forces will remain in the region until Irã fully complies with the terms of the actual ceasefire. One of the central conditions of the agreement provided for safe passage of ships through Estreito of Ormuz, an essential route for the global supply of oil and gas.

Reports indicate that Irã maintains restrictions on maritime traffic due to Israeli attacks, renewing fears of prolonged power outages. The deputy minister of the Iranian Relações Exteriores, Saeed Khatibzadeh, declared that the country will guarantee security at the crossing, but only after the end of actions considered aggression. Há disagreements over whether the clashes in Líbano are included in the ceasefire.

Ship traffic through the strait has remained at very low levels since the agreement was announced. Análises show that only a small number of vessels have crossed the route in recent days, compared to a previous daily average of around 130 ships. Empresas marine tracking estimates that it will take at least ten days to clear the existing backlog, even if normal volume resumes.

Mixed stock market reactions reflect global jitters

Stock markets reversed part of the gains made the day before, but recovered ground at the end of the session in some areas. The Japão index Nikkei 225 closed down 0.7%, while the Reino Unido FTSE 100 fell 0.05%. Na Europa, German Dax fell 1.14% and French Cac fell 0.22%.

At Estados Unidos, the three main indices ended the day higher after recovering from initial falls. Dow Jones and the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and Nasdaq advanced 0.8%. Analistas point out that the movement reflects uncertainty about the effective opening of Estreito and possible impacts on the flow of energy.

Analyst Victoria Scholar, from Interactive Investor, commented that there is a bit of nervousness in global markets, with the return of previous gains. Ela highlighted that this reflects doubts about the actual functioning of the key maritime route.

Retail prices rise despite wholesale fluctuations

According to data from British automotive groups, the average price of gasoline reached 158.03 pence per liter this Thursday, while diesel reached 191.11 pence, both slightly above the previous day. A full tank of petrol now costs £13.86 more than it did at the start of the conflict, making a total of £86.92. Para diesel, the increase is 26.80 pounds, reaching 105.11 pounds.

RAC experts say drivers shouldn’t expect a big reduction in station prices any time soon. Já the AA group indicates that wholesale costs are now lower than at the beginning of the week. Spokesperson Luke Bosdet explained that, based on the rule of 10 to 14 days of lag between variations in wholesale and retail, prices at gas stations should stabilize next weekend and then fall, as long as the ceasefire continues.

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Impact on maritime transport and prospects for the sector

Shipping companies report difficulties planning operations due to changing daily news. Nils Haupt, from Hapag-Lloyd, who still has ships at Golfo Pérsico, said it is very difficult to predict the next steps. Ele warned that any fees for passing through Estreito from Ormuz could significantly increase costs, compared to routes such as Canal from Panamá or Suez.

Some countries, such as Malásia, Índia and Filipinas, have negotiated safe passage for their vessels in recent weeks. However, overall volume remains well below normal. Maritime intelligence Firmas and Windward note that the risk and number of transits have not changed significantly since the ceasefire announcement.

Even in the best-case scenario, it will take weeks to move stranded oil and gas cargoes, and months for global trade to approach pre-crisis levels. American Vice President JD Vance is expected to participate in negotiations with Irã no Paquistão this Saturday, which could bring more clarity about the future of the agreement.

Conditions for stabilizing fuel prices

Crude oil serves as the main ingredient in the production of gasoline and diesel, exerting a direct influence on the cost of fueling vehicles. Desde the start of the war on February 28, wholesale oil prices rose by about 35%. Especialistas reinforce that any sustained relief depends on the full and safe resumption of flow by Estreito of Ormuz.

Motorist groups are closely monitoring developments as prolonged outages could keep prices higher for longer. The combination of geopolitical and logistical factors continues to dictate the pace of variations observed in energy markets.

Limited movement of ships reinforces caution

As of mid-afternoon on April 9, analysis indicated that only 11 ships had been tracked crossing the strait since the ceasefire. It is possible that other vessels made the crossing without transmitting their location. The Iranian Marinha issued warnings that any ship attempting to cross without permission could be targeted.

The oil chief of Abu Dhabi stated that the strait is not open despite the agreement. Essas statements contribute to maintaining pressure on international oil prices.

The two-week ceasefire agreement aims to allow broader negotiations, including the safe resumption of shipping. However, persistent tensions with Líbano and divergent positions between the parties involved keep the outlook volatile for energy markets.