Brasil finds itself faced with a complex paradox in external financing policy. Enquanto the federal government resumes loans from BNDES for works abroad, the country is trying to recover approximately US$ 1.2 billion in operations defaulted by Venezuela and another US$ 676 million from Cuba. The simultaneity of these actions reignites the debate about the risks of financing infrastructure projects in countries with a history of default or fiscal instability.
President Lula recently sanctioned a law that makes new BNDES loans possible for the export of engineering services. The measure allows Brazilian construction companies to resume large infrastructure projects abroad, an activity that had been halted after Operação Lava Jato. At the height of this expansion, Brazilian companies controlled almost 2.5% of the global engineering services market, a share lost after the interruption of financing.
How the risk mechanism works and the cost for Brasil
The BNDES operational model works in a risk coverage chain that, in the end, holds the Brazilian taxpayer responsible. Quando the bank lends resources to take services from Brazilian private companies abroad, establishing a contract where the receiving country assumes the payment obligation after carrying out the works. If the contractor does not honor the debt, BNDES activates special insurance.
Esse protection mechanism is the Fundo from Garantia to Exportação, an instrument created by União specifically to cover defaults in external financing operations. Quando a debt is not paid off, the fund absorbs the financial loss. In practice, it is Brazilian taxpayers who bear the losses generated by defaults by foreign governments. Esse system transfers credit risk from the private bank to public coffers, a structure that experts constantly question.
Casos concrete: Venezuela and Cuba accumulate tens of billions in reais
Venezuela represents the largest volume of defaults with Brasil. The South American country accumulates debts already covered by the fund that total just over US$1.2 billion. Entre The main works financed are the Caracas and Los Teques subways, in addition to the Siderúrgica Nacional. Essas operations are characterized by high technical complexity and large investment volume, precisely the type of project that attracts BNDES financing for Brazilian construction companies.
Cuba, in turn, has a delay of US$676 million. Porto of Mariel constitutes the most significant infrastructure work among the financed operations. Para guarantee the return of this credit, the BNDES demanded as guarantee the revenues generated by the Cuban cigar industry, an initiative that the TCU (Tribunal of Contas of União) later classified as fragile and insufficient. The court’s assessment highlights weaknesses in the design of contractual guarantees.
Somadas, Venezuela and Cuba’s debts exceed $1.8 billion. Convertendo for reais according to the current exchange rate, the value reaches tens of billions in potential loss for the Brazilian treasury. Essas figures represent resources that could have been allocated to domestic public policies, which fuels criticism about the external financing model.
Governo continues to charge with no prospect of receiving it
In response to CNN Brasil, Ministério of Fazenda reported that there is no expectation of regularization of payments in the short or medium term. The ministry stated that the government continues to collect credits through direct bilateral negotiations and coordination in specialized international forums. Overdue amounts are also subject to interest, which increases the total debt each period.
Contudo, experts assess it as unlikely that debtor countries will fully comply with contractual obligations. The economic situation of both debtors offers little incentive for repayment. Venezuela faces chronic fiscal crisis and exchange controls. Cuba maintains a restricted economy and is impacted by the North American economic blockade. Ambas conditions significantly reduce the ability to pay external debts.
Tony Volpon, CNN columnist Money, questions the strategic suitability of the model. Segundo your analysis, it is not prudent to carry out works in countries that have historically low capacity to honor large volume credits. Volpon also asks whether it would be more appropriate to allocate BNDES’ financing capacity to priority domestic projects or to countries with a more solid credit profile.
Novas rules aim to reduce the risk of future defaults
The law sanctioned by the federal government introduces structural changes designed to prevent new defaults from occurring. The standard improves the transparency of operations and obliges BNDES to maintain public information on all loans made. Essa requirement allows for greater public and parliamentary scrutiny of external credit granting decisions.
The most significant measure prohibits BNDES from carrying out new financing operations with countries that are already in default on other credit lines. Essa clause represents an attempt to avoid additional exposure to debtors proven to be insolvent or defaulting. The criterion seeks to apply basic principles of credit risk management to the export financing program.
Apesar of these regulatory changes, the impact on the recovery of existing debts remains nil. The new rules do not change the status of operations already carried out with Cuba and Venezuela. Elas only function as prospective protection, preventing new loans from being made to debtors with a proven history of default. Brasil remains with the losses already incurred.
Contexto history of Brazilian construction companies in the foreign market
The resumption of financing represents a return to a model that was interrupted approximately a decade ago. During the period in which BNDES operated intensely, Brazilian construction companies gained a relevant position in the global engineering market, controlling almost 2.5% of international demand. Empresas like Odebrecht, Camargo Corrêa and Andrade Gutierrez operated in multiple countries simultaneously, often with state financial support.
Operação Lava Jato imposed a turning point in this trajectory. Investigations into corruption involving large construction companies and state financing led to the interruption of BNDES credit lines for exports. Esse hiatus resulted in significant market loss for Brazilian companies. International Concorrentes, particularly Chinese, have expanded their participation in the provision of engineering and infrastructure services globally.
The current resumption of financing represents a strategy to recover market share. Contudo, it occurs in the context in which Brasil has already accumulated billion-dollar losses from previous operations. The simultaneity between collecting past debts and granting new credit creates political and budgetary tension that experts point out as inefficient.