Trump’s ‘friendship’ with Xi yields scant progress on key issues, highlighting policy risks

Trump’s ‘friendship’ with Xi yields scant progress on key issues, highlighting policy risks

Despite former President Donald Trump’s repeated public declarations of a strong personal rapport with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including referring to him as a “friend,” his administration frequently concluded high-stakes engagements with Beijing without achieving significant, concrete breakthroughs. This pattern underscored a distinctive, personality-driven foreign policy strategy, one that heavily relied on the belief that American interests could be robustly defended through sheer charm, direct negotiation, and an assertive force of will from the Oval Office.

The absence of tangible, lasting agreements on critical fronts such as trade imbalances, intellectual property theft, regional security, and human rights often left observers questioning the efficacy of this highly individualized diplomatic approach. While the personal connection was often touted as a strength, it frequently did not translate into substantive policy concessions or long-term strategic shifts from the Chinese side.

This approach stood in stark contrast to more traditional diplomatic methods, which typically involve extensive preparatory work, multilateral consultations, and a robust framework of institutional engagement. The reliance on personal chemistry, while potentially disarming in some instances, proved insufficient to navigate the deeply entrenched geopolitical and economic complexities of the U.S.-China relationship.

## The gambit of personal diplomacy

The core tenet of this foreign policy posture was a direct, often unconventional, engagement with foreign leaders. For Trump, the belief was that a strong personal bond, built on mutual respect or even admiration, could cut through bureaucratic red tape and achieve results that traditional diplomacy often failed to deliver. In the context of China, this meant a direct line to Xi Jinping, often bypassing established diplomatic channels and even his own State Department officials.

This strategy manifested in numerous high-profile meetings and phone calls, where the former president would publicly praise Xi, often contrasting him with other world leaders. The hope was that this personal deference would be reciprocated with significant concessions on issues vital to American economic and strategic interests. However, the outcomes frequently fell short of these ambitious expectations, revealing the limitations of such a singular focus.

## Unmet expectations on trade and technology

Trade imbalances and intellectual property theft were central to Trump’s agenda, and he often expressed confidence that his personal relationship with Xi would lead to a swift resolution. Despite the imposition of tariffs and intense negotiations, a comprehensive and lasting trade deal proved elusive. The “Phase One” trade deal, signed in early 2020, was heralded as a major achievement, yet many of its key targets, particularly related to Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, were not fully met.

Furthermore, fundamental structural issues, such as forced technology transfer and state subsidies for Chinese industries, remained largely unaddressed. Critics argued that the emphasis on transactional wins, driven by the belief in personal persuasive power, overshadowed the need for systemic changes that China was unwilling to concede without broader pressure. The high-stakes, one-on-one negotiations often left little room for detailed technical discussions or robust enforcement mechanisms, resulting in agreements that were more symbolic than transformative.

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## Geopolitical complexities persist

Beyond economics, critical geopolitical challenges also tested the limits of this personality-driven approach. Issues like China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, its human rights record in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and its military modernization continued to escalate. While Trump occasionally raised these concerns, the narrative of “friendship” often seemed to temper a more forceful condemnation or concerted international action.

On North Korea, Trump frequently sought Xi’s assistance, believing that China held significant leverage over Pyongyang. Meetings between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, often facilitated by China’s tacit approval, were characterized by grand gestures but ultimately failed to secure denuclearization. The lack of a clear, coordinated strategy with allies and the over-reliance on direct, personal appeals to both Xi and Kim highlighted the risks of this unconventional diplomatic style, which struggled to yield concrete security outcomes.

## A legacy of transactional diplomacy

The approach championed by the former administration left a complex legacy for U.S. foreign policy. While it demonstrated a willingness to challenge long-standing diplomatic norms and engage adversaries directly, it also exposed vulnerabilities. The emphasis on individual relationships, rather than institutional strength and allied consensus, often led to unpredictable outcomes and a perception of policy incoherence.

Key concerns that emerged from this era included:

• Lack of enduring agreements: Many deals were either short-lived, vaguely worded, or failed to address root causes.
• Alienation of allies: A focus on bilateral deals often came at the expense of multilateral cooperation, weakening collective leverage against China.
• Unpredictability: The highly personalized nature of diplomacy made policy direction susceptible to individual whims and shifts in personal dynamics.
• Erosion of institutional expertise: The sidelining of career diplomats and experts meant a loss of crucial institutional memory and strategic depth in complex negotiations.

The “friendship” narrative, while appealing in its simplicity, ultimately proved insufficient to bridge the fundamental divergences in interests and values between the United States and China. The intricate web of global politics and economics often requires more than personal charm; it demands a robust, strategic, and institutionally backed approach to secure national interests effectively.

## Re-evaluating diplomatic strategies

The experience of the Trump administration’s engagement with China has prompted a significant re-evaluation of diplomatic strategies within Washington and among its allies. There is a renewed focus on strengthening alliances, rebuilding multilateral frameworks, and investing in traditional diplomatic institutions. This shift acknowledges that while personal relationships can play a role, they cannot be the sole foundation of a nation’s foreign policy, especially when dealing with complex and strategic rivals.