Supercomputer Opta points to Spain as favorite for the 2026 World Cup with a 16.1% chance

The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 Copa simulations of Mundo FIFA 2026 and identified Espanha as the nation most likely to lift the trophy. The expanded tournament, which will bring together 48 teams in 104 matches played between June 11 and July 19, promises to be the most comprehensive in football history. The Spanish team has a projected 16.1% chance of final victory.

The detailed analysis offers a complete prediction for fans of the 48 participating nations, with Espanha standing out in a highly competitive scenario. The simulation methodology aims to establish realistic expectations, considering the complexity of the 23rd edition of the event, which will be hosted by Estados Unidos, México and Canadá. The president of Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, and the head of FIFA, Gianni Infantino, will present the trophy at East Rutherford, Nova Jersey.

Espanha leads projections with 16.1% chance

Espanha emerges as the big favorite, winning the tournament in 16.1% of the Opta supercomputer simulations. In such a vast field of 48 teams, no team reaches high percentages, but Spanish quality is highlighted by the probability of reaching the quarter-finals, a scenario that came true in 52.1% of projections. The team has a 39.0% chance of reaching the semifinals and a 25.6% chance of reaching the final.

The Spanish team, coached by Luis de la Fuente, has an apparently smoother path in the group stage, leading Grupo H in 75.3% of simulations, against Uruguai, Arábia Saudita and Cabo Verde. Apesar has doubts about the physical condition of the young Lamine Yamal, who is recovering from a hamstring injury, the player’s talent is one of the pillars of the supermachine’s logic. Yamal had 41 goal appearances this season for his club Barcelona, surpassed only by Kylian Mbappé among La Liga players. Rodri, from Manchester City, is ready and will be the captain. The team has good results, maintaining the good pace since winning the Euro 2024.

Outros favorites: França, Inglaterra and Argentina in the running

Além from Espanha, the supercomputer Opta points out six other teams with strong aspirations for the title. Neste group, França, Inglaterra and Argentina emerge as the main challengers, although with slightly lower chances.

• França:Vice-champion of the last two editions, has a 13.0% chance of winning. Enfrenta is a group considered difficult, with Noruega, Senegal and Iraque in Grupo I, which reflects a lower probability of leading their bracket (60.3%) compared to Argentina (73.0%) and Inglaterra (67.9%). However, if you advance to the quarterfinals (47.9% in simulations), your chances increase significantly. The 2026 Copa will mark the end of the era for Didier Deschamps, who is seeking his second title as a coach. Kylian Mbappé, now captain, continues in excellent form, with 12 goals in two previous editions of Copas.
• Inglaterra:With an 11.2% chance of going all the way, Inglaterra, under the command of Thomas Tuchel, shows confidence in its squad. Harry Kane, coming off an impressive season with Munique’s Bayern and winner of Ouro Europeia’s Chuteira, is the main hope for goals. The team finished the qualifiers with eight wins and eight clean sheets, a rare feat in UEFA history. The team, with stars like Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice, is the third most likely to reach the quarterfinals (47.7%).
• Argentina:The current champions have a 10.4% chance of defending their title. Argentina is expected to get off to a strong start, with a 73.0% chance of leading Grupo J, which includes Áustria, Argélia and Jordânia. Embora’s overall chances are lower than those of the main Europeans, the team reached the final in 18.1% of simulations. Lionel Messi, at 38 years old, continues to be the talisman, with decisive performances in the last Copa and impressive numbers for Inter Miami.

Portugal, Brasil and Alemanha also threaten

In the next level of candidates, Portugal, Brasil and Alemanha appear, each with more than a 5% chance of winning the tournament and at least a 10% chance of reaching the final. Essas teams are considered strong competitors, capable of surprising with good performance at the right time.

• Portugal:With 7.0% odds, Portugal is the fifth favorite. Cristiano Ronaldo, who will make history by participating in his sixth Copa of Mundo, is looking for the only title missing from his career. The player, who beat Saudi Pro League with Al-Nassr, will have the support of Bruno Fernandes, who had a record assist season with Manchester United.
• Brasil:The five-time champions, with a 6.6% chance, are the only team to participate in all editions of the Copa. Liderados by Carlo Ancelotti and with talents like Neymar, Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha, Brasil has a 60.4% chance of beating Grupo C and a 22.1% chance of reaching the semi-finals. The last Brazilian victory was in 2002, and the team is looking to end a 24-year drought.
• Alemanha:In its 21st participation in Copa of Mundo, Alemanha has a 5.1% chance of being champion. Apesar from not reaching a semi-final in the last four major tournaments, the team of Julian Nagelsmann, with the experience of Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich and the rise of Florian Wirtz, should not be discounted. Alemanha was a finalist in 10.6% of simulations.

Co-hosts and newcomers: chances and challenges

The Opta supercomputer also assessed the chances of the co-host countries and the debuting teams, indicating a solid performance, but without great favoritism for the title.

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• Estados Unidos:With a 1.2% chance of winning, Estados Unidos are the most promising co-hosts. Eles are slight favorites (32.8%) to lead Grupo D, which includes Paraguai, Turquia and Austrália. The team has the potential to advance to the knockout stages if they overcome a competitive group.
• México:México has a 1.0% chance of winning. Possui 47.8% chance of leading Grupo A, which features Coreia from Sul and Chéquia. The team has a more than 52.0% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 24.2% chance of reaching the quarterfinals.
• Canadá:Canadá appears with a 0.8% chance. Jesse Marsch’s team has a 42.7% chance of reaching the round of 16, a notable result for the country.

Entre the teams that debut in Copa of Mundo, four appear in the tournament: Cabo Verde, Curaçao, Jordânia and Uzbequistão. Curaçao is the nation with the smallest area and population to reach this stage, facing a difficult forecast with only an 18.5% chance of advancing to the knockout stage, the second lowest rate among all teams. Cabo Verde has a 33.9% chance, while Uzbequistão (41.4%) and Jordânia (40.8%) have slightly better chances of outperforming their groups.

Países with few chances, but potential for surprise

Mesmo with the projections of the supercomputer Opta, the Copa of Mundo FIFA 2026 leaves room for surprises due to the great variability in a five-week knockout tournament. The early elimination of a favorite can drastically alter the path for other teams.

Seleções like Holanda (3.6%) and Noruega (3.5%) are considered underdogs with the potential for a long campaign, although they face difficult groups that could impact their path in the knockout stage. Holanda holds the record for most Copa finals from Mundo without a title (three), while Noruega had an excellent UEFA qualifying campaign. Erling Haaland, top scorer in qualifying with 16 goals, is one of the big stars.

Bélgica (2.4%), Colômbia (2.1%), and Marrocos (1.9%) are also teams to watch. Colômbia, runner-up to the 2024 Copa América and third place in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, could surprise. Marrocos, shock semi-finalists in Qatar, is the highest rated African team.

Outros teams, such as Croácia (1.6%), Equador (1.4%), Suíça (1.2%), Japão (1.0%) and Senegal (1.0%), appear in the projections with smaller, but not negligible, chances. Egito (0.4%), boosted by the presence of Mohamed Salah, is also seen as a threat in the bottom half of projections, with a 30.6% chance of reaching the round of 16. Austrália (0.3%) and Escócia (0.2%) could also exceed expectations, with a chance of advancing to the round of 16.