This Tuesday, July 14, 2026, the North American space agency, NASA, released updated predictions about the closest approach of the asteroid Bennu to Earth. With almost 500 meters in diameter, this celestial body has been monitored for years, as a possible impact could release energy equivalent to 22 nuclear bombs. The date with the highest probability of collision was established as September 24, 2182.
The first observations of Bennu, carried out by telescopes, took place on September 11, 1999. It is estimated that the asteroid was formed approximately 1 to 2 billion years ago, completing its orbit around the Earth every six years. Its previous closest approach to our planet was recorded at a distance of 299,000 kilometers.
To further study Bennu, NASA launched the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft in 2016. The mission’s main focus was on reaching the asteroid and collecting samples from its surface. In 2018, the probe arrived at the celestial fragment, spending two years nearby to study and collect data on its shape and mass.
The collection of fragments from the asteroid’s surface by OSIRIS-REx took place in October 2020. The final stage of the mission was completed in 2023, with the return of the samples to Earth, which allowed for deeper knowledge about the composition of Bennu.
The data provided by OSIRIS-REx also enriched the understanding of the asteroid’s rotation and trajectory around the Sun. With the refinement of orbital calculations, new results indicate that the probability of Bennu reaching Earth by the year 2300 is 0.057%. Specifically for September 24, 2182, this chance is 0.037%, which is equivalent to 1 in 1,750 and 1 in 2,700, respectively.
Scientists predict that, in 2135, Bennu’s trajectory could change. A new approach of the asteroid to Earth, during this period, could cause the planet’s gravity to modify its orbit. Such an event will require new calculations to be carried out to reassess the risks of a possible collision.
