The El Niño climate phenomenon is predicted to intensify further, reaching high strength between the months of August and October 2026. This projection was released in a recent update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations agency dedicated to climate and meteorology issues.
According to the WMO, temperatures are expected to remain above average in vast regions of the planet during the coming months. As for rainfall patterns, the impacts will be regional: certain locations may receive more voluminous precipitation, while others face a greater danger of dry periods.
The development of El Niño occurs against a backdrop of oceans with already exceptionally high temperatures and may coincide with the emergence of another climate pattern in the Indian Ocean. This combination, amplified by ongoing global warming, suggests that impacts may be more severe than in past events, requiring increased attention from governments and communities. The WMO warns that this combination of factors can increase the risks of prolonged droughts, floods and forest fires in specific regions.
Models analyzed by the organization indicate that sea surface temperatures could exceed the average by more than 2.9°C in areas of the Pacific Ocean monitored for El Niño.
Understand how the intensity of El Niño is evaluated
The intensity of El Niño is mainly determined by the difference between the water temperature of the Equatorial Pacific and its historical average. The greater and longer lasting this heating, the more intense the phenomenon is classified. However, not all regions will feel impacts with the same intensity. The effects are influenced by location, time of year and the interaction of El Niño with other oceanic and atmospheric climate patterns.
Warming beyond the Pacific: other oceans also register an increase
In addition to the intensification of El Niño, the WMO anticipates the formation of a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This pattern is characterized by water temperatures above normal in the western portion of the Indian Ocean, while the eastern part experiences below-average temperatures.
The combined action of these two phenomena can exacerbate the impacts on rainfall and temperatures, mainly affecting nations close to the Indian Ocean. The Tropical Atlantic is also expected to remain warmer than usual in the coming months.
“El Niño is among the most monitored climate phenomena globally. However, forecasts alone do not eliminate the dangers; it is human action that prevents them,” said Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the WMO. She highlighted that the prior identification of the strengthening of the phenomenon offers a valuable chance for governments and communities to organize themselves before the impacts materialize. Saulo added: “This El Niño, which emerges in a context of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities an opportunity to anticipate risks and act proactively before impacts manifest.”
The organization has been working to expand coordination, climate information services and early warning systems to assist governments, humanitarian agencies and the most susceptible communities.
António Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN, said that El Niño will contribute more heat to a planet that is already facing intense heat waves, large fires and record temperatures in the oceans. “El Niño is not just on our doorstep. It has already invaded and is raising the temperature,” declared Guterres.
The WMO plans to release a more in-depth update on El Niño and La Niña in early September. This new document should offer a more comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the phenomenon and its likely effects in subsequent months.
Understand what characterizes El Niño and its climate relevance
El Niño is defined as an anomalous warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean in the equatorial region. It is part of a natural climate cycle that alternates between hot (El Niño), cold (La Niña) and neutral phases, generating consequences in different parts of the world.
This warming alters atmospheric circulation, changing rainfall and temperature patterns globally. In Brazil, the effects tend to be uneven: the South region tends to record more intense rains, while the North and parts of the Northeast can experience periods of drought.
The phenomenon also impacts global temperatures. During the most pronounced El Niño years, the planet often experiences above-average heat, intensifying the effects of global warming. The intensity of each event and its impacts vary. With the planet already warmer, even El Niño episodes of moderate strength can cause more pronounced effects than on previous occasions.
How El Niño could affect Brazil
Historically, El Niño changes the pattern of rainfall and temperatures in the country, generating the following consequences:
- Increased precipitation in the South region, increasing the risk of extreme weather events;
- Decrease in rainfall volumes in the North and in portions of the Northeast;
- Greater instability in precipitation in the Southeast and Center-West;
- Increasing frequency of hot flashes.
According to experts, one of the most anticipated effects is the prolongation of periods of intense heat, particularly during spring and summer.
Even with the alternation between La Niña, neutral phases and El Niño, scientists emphasize that global warming remains the main driver of the observed climate changes. With the oceans already showing temperatures above the historical average, the expectation is that the coming months will continue to record high temperatures in different parts of the globe.
