The proximity of the last Grand Slam of the year, the US Open in New York, scheduled for August 30, is accompanied by doubts about the presence of the two best global tennis players, according to information from August 19, 2026. Italian Jannik Sinner, with an injury to his right knee, and Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, undergoing rehabilitation from inflammation in his right wrist, have not yet confirmed their participation in the North American tournament. Sinner has not played since winning Wimbledon on July 12, while Alcaraz has been off the court since April 14, when he competed in the ATP 500 in Barcelona and then abandoned a match.
Although they occupy the first two positions in the ranking of the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP), this classification is about to be changed. Alexander Zverev, from Germany, has already secured his place in the round of 16 of the Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, and is projected to overtake Alcaraz to occupy second place, with a chance of competing for the lead soon.
Analysis of the history of absences at the top of the ranking and the weight of injuries to Sinner and Alcaraz
Alexander Zverev’s advancement prevents the 2026 US Open from facing an unusual situation where the two highest-ranked tennis players could be absent. A Grand Slam has not featured first and second placed since Wimbledon, in 2022. At that time, Russian Daniil Medvedev, leader of the ranking at the time, was banned from competing due to sanctions imposed by the tournament organization against Russian and Belarusian athletes, in response to the conflict in Ukraine, which began on February 24. At the same time, Zverev, who was second in the world, was also unable to play, as he was recovering from surgery. Before these events, the 1999 Australian Open had already been played without the two best, the American Pete Sampras and the Chilean Marcelo Ríos.
Jannik Sinner’s condition appears more complex than Carlos Alcaraz’s at the moment. The world number one returned to Turin on August 17 to continue his recovery program with a focus on the US Open. He underwent training to test the condition of his right knee on the court, and additional tests would be carried out, without the results being released. The Italian’s team adopts a cautious stance, indicating that the trip to New York will only happen if the recovery is complete.
Carlos Alcaraz, who has not competed in competitions for over four months, resumed training on August 17th. The Spanish athlete participated in a three-hour session with Holger Rune, from Denmark, in Murcia, Spain. Despite having tried to return to the circuit, Alcaraz had to abandon participation in two major tournaments: the Masters 1000 in Montreal and Cincinnati, considered the most significant events after the Grand Slams.
What the ATP ranking looks like after Alexander Zverev’s likely rise
Carlos Alcaraz’s non-participation in the Cincinnati Masters 1000, which takes place this week, will lead to his dropping one position in the next ranking update, as he will not defend the points from his previous title. Therefore, Alexander Zverev is projected to take second place on the ATP list. Today, Jannik Sinner is ahead with 13,450 points, followed by Alcaraz with 8,160 and Zverev with 8,090. Sinner needs to defend 1,950 points by the US Open, which, if it doesn’t happen, would leave him with 11,500. Alcaraz will lose 3,000 points related to the Cincinnati and US Open titles, leaving him with 5,160. Zverev, currently in third place, defends just 500 points. Even if he is eliminated in the round of 16 in Cincinnati, he will still maintain 7,790 points.
If Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz sit out the US Open, and Alexander Zverev wins the Cincinnati Masters 1000 and the last Grand Slam of the season, the German would accumulate 10,590 points. Such a result would put him very close to Sinner, who, if he doesn’t play the Major in New York, would have 11,500 points.
