Trump threatens trade retaliation against China for halting US soybean imports in 2025
On Tuesday (14), Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he is considering retaliatory measures against China for suspending imports of US soybeans. The US president labeled Beijing’s decision an economically hostile act that directly impacts the country’s farmers. The move comes amid escalating trade tensions, with tariffs already in place and bilateral negotiations ongoing.
The suspension of Chinese soybean purchases, which began in September, represents a nearly 80% drop in imports from January to August 2025 compared to the previous year. Producers in states like North Dakota face mounting stockpiles and losses estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars. Trump attributes the issue to previously imposed tariffs but also blames the prior administration for failing to uphold trade agreements.
Origins of the soybean dispute
China imported 5.8 million tons of soybeans from the US in the first eight months of 2025, down from 26.5 million in the same period of 2024. This reduction aligns with Beijing’s diversification policy, adopted since 2018 during Trump’s first term. The Asian nation has conditioned resuming purchases on the removal of US tariffs on Chinese goods, currently at 30%.
In response, the US imposed additional tariffs, including a 100% rate on Chinese imports starting in November, depending on Beijing’s next moves. This aims to protect domestic industries but worsens the bilateral trade imbalance.
Impact on US farmers
US farmers are facing billion-dollar losses due to the drop in soybean exports, which account for up to 70% of production in some states.
- Grain stockpiles are accumulating in silos, raising storage costs.
- Domestic prices are falling, with average losses of $400,000 per farm in 2025.
- Labor shortages and input inflation are worsening the situation.
Trump pledged an emergency aid fund, financed by tariff revenues, to support farmers until the dispute is resolved.
The measure includes transferring tariff revenue to affected farmers.
Threats to halt cooking oil imports
The US imports significant volumes of cooking oil from China, used in renewable diesel production. Trump suggested ending these imports as retaliation, stating the US can produce the product domestically. This follows China’s export controls on rare earths, critical for US industries.
Such a move could raise costs in the US energy sector, but Trump argues it strengthens self-sufficiency. Trade officials anticipate further discussions at the APEC summit in South Korea in October.
Brazil gains market share
Brazil exported over 77 million tons of soybeans to China in the same period, solidifying its position as the top supplier.
This expansion boosts Brazil’s agribusiness, with a 20% increase in sales in 2025.
Argentina also increased exports after temporarily suspending taxes on the grain.
These gains reflect China’s strategy to reduce reliance on a single trade partner.
Emergency fund and trade outlook
The US Department of Agriculture estimates a 2.5% drop in farm income in 2025, the lowest since 2007. Trump plans to use tariff revenues to mitigate impacts, focusing on soybeans, corn, and sorghum.
- Creation of an emergency fund for farmers.
- Support for storage and logistics investments.
- Negotiations for new bilateral agreements.
The initiative aims to stabilize the sector until tariffs benefit producers. A Trump-Xi Jinping meeting remains scheduled.
Trump’s criticism of allies
During a meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei, Trump warned against military cooperation with China.
He advised limiting trade relations without involving defense issues.
The statement reflects concerns about China’s expansion in Latin America.
