Dembélé emerges as the big name in the European soccer season, driven by an impeccable campaign with Paris Saint-Germain. The French forward racked up impressive numbers, with 35 goals and 16 assists in 53 matches played between August 2024 and August 2025. His versatility on the field, combined with Paris Saint-Germain’s unprecedented Champions League conquest, places him at the center of attention for the sport’s most prestigious individual award. The Polymarket betting platform reflects this dominance, assigning an 84% probability of victory to the 28-year-old player.
The Ballon d’Or 2025 ceremony takes place this Monday, September 22, starting at 4 p.m. Brasília time, at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris. The event, organized by France Football magazine, brings together international journalists to vote on the season’s highlights. Dembélé, who took the lead after Kylian Mbappé’s departure to Real Madrid, was a key piece in PSG’s treble: Ligue 1, French Cup, and the coveted Champions League. His tactical evolution under Luis Enrique’s command, with greater defensive discipline and precision in decisive passes, turned past criticisms into unanimous praise.
Meanwhile, competitors like Lamine Yamal and Raphinha from Barcelona represent Catalan strength in the race. Yamal, at 18 years old, exploded with 18 goals and 25 assists in 55 games, becoming the youngest to influence a national title campaign so much. Raphinha, in turn, recorded 34 goals and 25 assists in 57 matches, leading goal involvement stats among top candidates. However, Barcelona’s elimination in the Champions League semifinals by Inter Milan weighed on projections.
- Dembélé: 35 goals and 16 assists, highlighted in the Champions final.
- Yamal: 18 goals and 25 assists, including decisive goals in El Clásico.
- Raphinha: 34 goals and 25 assists, elected La Liga’s best player.
- Mohamed Salah: 25 goals and 18 assists, but without European titles.
These numbers illustrate the intensity of the season, where PSG’s collective strength gained extra weight in evaluations.
Dembélé’s stellar performance at PSG
Ousmane Dembélé started the 2024/2025 season as a risky bet but quickly established himself as PSG’s engine. In 49 official games, the Frenchman directly contributed to 48 goals, a mark that reflects his ability to dribble past opposing defenses and create spaces for teammates like Vitinha and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. His performance in the Champions League was particularly notable: eight goals and six assists in ten matches, including the assist for the title goal in the final against Bayern Munich.
This individual explosion came after years of injuries that haunted him since his transfer from Barcelona to PSG in 2023. Dembélé adjusted his physical preparation, incorporating prevention routines that reduced absences to less than 5% of games. In the Ligue 1 context, he led the team with 15 goals in 28 rounds, surpassing rivals like Monaco and Marseille with ease. Fellow countrymen like Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi praised his locker room leadership, highlighting how the number 10 motivated the squad during the competition marathon.
.@LFC is in the house! Welcome to Paris!#ballondor pic.twitter.com/SNOgODooR5
— Ballon d'Or (@ballondor) September 22, 2025
PSG’s collective strength, with nine players nominated for the Ballon d’Or, bolsters Dembélé’s candidacy. The Parisian club conquered 78 points in Ligue 1, with a 62-goal differential, numbers that surpass previous editions. Analysts point out that his ability to play in multiple attacking positions – right wing, left wing, or central – was decisive for Luis Enrique’s tactical flexibility. In post-match interviews, Dembélé emphasized the focus on collective trophies as the foundation for individual awards, a mindset that resonates with France Football’s criteria.
Comparisons with past seasons show the quality leap: in 2023/2024, he had only 19 goal involvements; now, he doubled the impact. This consistency positions him ahead in advanced metrics, like expected goals (xG) of 28.5 and expected assists (xA) of 14.2.
Yamal and Raphinha boost Barcelona
Lamine Yamal represents Barcelona’s renewal, with performances that evoke memories of legends like Lionel Messi. At 17 years old at the start of the season, the Spaniard played 55 games and tallied 43 goal involvements, including three in the Champions League group stage and two in the Copa del Rey semifinal. His game vision, with 25 assists, was crucial for La Liga and Spanish Supercup conquests, where Barça earned 82 points in the national championship.
Raphinha, Yamal’s teammate, complemented the Blaugrana attack with even more expressive numbers: 59 goal involvements in 57 matches. The 28-year-old Brazilian took the captain’s armband in key moments and was elected La Liga’s best player for the second consecutive time. His 34 goals include hat-tricks against Sevilla and Atlético de Madrid, plus 25 assists that directly benefited Yamal and Robert Lewandowski. Despite missing the Champions final, Barcelona sent 14 representatives to the awards, signaling a solid season.
The duo formed a lethal partnership, with Yamal creating and Raphinha finishing: together, they created 112 chances in La Liga. Coach Hansi Flick praised Yamal’s maturity, who turned 18 during the campaign, and Raphinha’s versatility, capable of playing as a false 9. However, the 4-3 defeat to Inter in the Champions semifinals divided opinions on the weight of national titles versus European ones. Yamal, with 3.00 odds in bets, emerges as a romantic underdog, while Raphinha, with just 2%, relies on Brazilian votes in the jury.
These performances highlight the balance between youth and experience at Barça, which reclaimed La Liga after a two-year drought.
- Yamal: Highlight in successful dribbles (87% success) and decisive passes.
- Raphinha: Leader in shots on goal (142 attempts) and penalty conversion (100%).
- Joint contributions: 12 goals in direct clashes against Real Madrid.
- Titles: La Liga with 82 points and Copa del Rey.
Recent history of the award
The Ballon d’Or has evolved since its creation in 1956 by France Football, shifting from an annual award to a seasonal focus in 2022. In recent years, the trophy has alternated between established stars and tactical surprises. Rodri, from Manchester City, took the prize in 2024 after leading Spain in the Eurocup, with 92% pass accuracy and leadership in interceptions. His win broke the hegemony of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who dominated 13 editions between 2008 and 2023.
In 2023, Messi celebrated his eighth Ballon d’Or thanks to the World Cup in Qatar, where he scored seven goals and provided three assists. Benzema, in 2022, shone with 44 goals in Real Madrid’s Champions-winning season. The absence of an award in 2020, due to the pandemic, marked an unusual pause, but the event returned strongly in 2021, again with Messi on top.
These conquests reflect criteria like individual performance, collective influence, and fair play. In 2019, Messi scored 686 points from the jury, surpassing Virgil van Dijk by a wide margin. Ronaldo, five-time winner, stood out in 2017 with the Nations League and Champions League for Real. The voting, conducted by 100 journalists from FIFA federations, prioritizes the August-to-July period, excluding events like the 2024 Olympics.
- 2024: Rodri, for Eurocup and Premier League.
- 2023: Messi, for the World Cup.
- 2022: Benzema, with 44 goals in La Liga.
- 2021: Messi, Inter Miami and Argentine national team.
- 2020: No award due to Covid-19.
Other contenders in the race
Mohamed Salah, from Liverpool, enters the dispute with 25 goals and 18 assists in 52 games, leading the Premier League in chances created. His consistency, with 95% accurate passes in big games, places him at 1% in bets, but the lack of a European trophy limits aspirations. Erling Haaland, from Manchester City, scored 36 goals in the English league, but injuries at the end of the season reduced his Champions impact.
Vitinha, PSG’s midfielder, emerges as a supporting player with 95% pass accuracy in the UCL and eight assists, contributing to the team’s balance. Cole Palmer, from Chelsea, exploded with 22 goals in his Premier League debut, drawing attention for creativity in quick transitions. Harry Kane, at Bayern Munich, tallied 31 goals in the Bundesliga, but elimination in the Champions round of 16 left him behind.
These names illustrate the season’s diversity, with English, German, and Portuguese players in the 30-nominee list. The jury evaluates not only stats but field leadership, like Salah’s interceptions (42 total) or Palmer’s dribbles (68 successful). In the women’s category, Aitana Bonmatí seeks a third for Barcelona, while Alessia Russo, from Arsenal, challenges with the Women’s Champions League title.
- Salah: Leader in Premier assists (18).
- Haaland: Premier League top scorer with 36 goals.
- Vitinha: 95% passes in UCL.
- Palmer: 22 goals at Chelsea.
- Kane: 31 goals in Bundesliga.
Ceremony details in Paris
The Théâtre du Châtelet, a historic stage in Paris, hosts the Ballon d’Or for the second consecutive time, with capacity for 500 guests and global broadcast. The schedule starts at 4 p.m. Brasília time, with France Football speeches on the award’s evolution to include categories like best goalkeeper (Yashin Trophy) and under-21 revelation (Kopa Trophy). Alisson, from Liverpool, competes for Yashin with 28 clean sheets in the season.
Estêvão, the young Palmeiras talent, vies for Kopa after 15 goals in the Brazilian Série A. In the women’s category, Marta seeks her first Ballon d’Or at 39, with eight goals at Orlando Pride. Arthur Elias, coach of the Brazilian women’s national team, enters the coaches’ category after the Copa América title. Botafogo, with the 2025 Libertadores, competes for best club award.
Broadcast is on TNT and Max, with real-time analysis of winners. The event emphasizes sustainability, with a 20% reduction in carbon emissions compared to 2024. Jurors from 50 countries vote anonymously, ensuring impartiality. France Football announced parallel awards, like fair play for PSG with zero red cards in the Champions.
Brazilian presence at the awards
Raphinha and Vinícius Júnior represent Brazil in the main trophy, with the first tallying 59 goal involvements and the second, 28 goals at Real Madrid despite injuries. Vini, 16th in initial projections, stood out in La Liga with dribbles (124 successful). Amanda Gutierres, from Corinthians, competes in the women’s category with 12 goals in the Libertadores.
The Brazilian delegation includes eight nominees, reinforcing national talent. Raphinha, with 2% in bets, relies on his La Liga MVP election to climb the rankings. Real Madrid boycotts the event for the second year after 2024 controversies, but Vini travels individually. This presence keeps Brazil as the nation with the most historic wins, with six trophies.
- Raphinha: 34 goals in La Liga.
- Vini Jr.: 28 goals despite absences.
- Marta: Eight goals in NWSL.
- Alisson: 28 clean sheets.
- Arthur Elias: Copa América title.
